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MUSA Murphy USA Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

534.95 Close 10/30
Since 2024-12-02 -0.5%
Open
546.55
High
550.00
Low
528.01
Prev close
540.00
Volume
274.5K
Amplitude
4.07%
P/E
15.0
P/B
12.2
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+20.2%
52W 349.83 636.04

Is Murphy USA Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Quality: Good, Growth: Good, Momentum: Good, Risk / liquidity: Good; Valuation: Pricey.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but Price / book is Expensive.
TTM P/E 15 41th percentile Fair
Price / book 12.2 94th percentile Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 6.89 73th percentile Good
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good ROE, TTM is Top, but Operating margin, TTM is Average.
ROE, TTM (%) 83.56 94th percentile Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) 4.25 45th percentile Average
FCF margin, TTM (%) 2.87 46th percentile Average
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Good All 2 indicators are Good.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 20.2 74th percentile Good
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 50.44 77th percentile Good
Momentum Good 240-day return is Top; 60-day return is Good.
60-day return (%) -0.12 67th percentile Good
240-day return (%) 50.61 87th percentile Top
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 125,008,776 89th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 33.06 38th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) today

2 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Murphy USA Inc. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Murphy USA Inc. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like Murphy USA Inc.

Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) peers and tracking

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Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 20.2%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

7 historical occurrences (since 2018-08-02)

Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration

20-day: Win 50%, Sample 6, Median +2.49%, Excess +2.42%, Beat mkt rate 50%

60-day: Win 50%, Sample 6, Median +8.14%, Excess +14.52%, Beat mkt rate 83.3%

120-day: Win 80%, Sample 5, Median +20.44%, Excess +28.7%, Beat mkt rate 80%

120 days after: historical avg +25.84%

20-day +3.21%
60-day +10.51%
120-day +25.84%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
50%
80%
Sample
6
6
5
Median
+2.49%
+8.14%
+20.44%
Excess
+2.42%
+14.52%
+28.7%
Beat mkt rate
50%
83.3%
80%

Over 5 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 25.84%, beat the market by 28.7 pts; win rate 80%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 14.58%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
31 historical occurrences (since 2015-02-04)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 28, Median +0.75%, Excess 0%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%

60-day: Win 67.9%, Sample 28, Median +7.01%, Excess +4.61%, Beat mkt rate 64.3%

120-day: Win 77.8%, Sample 27, Median +15.34%, Excess +9.36%, Beat mkt rate 63%

120 days after: historical avg +13.64%

20-day +1.25%
60-day +7.04%
120-day +13.64%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.1%
67.9%
77.8%
Sample
28
28
27
Median
+0.75%
+7.01%
+15.34%
Excess
0%
+4.61%
+9.36%
Beat mkt rate
42.9%
64.3%
63%

Over 27 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 13.64%, beat the market by 9.36 pts; win rate 77.8%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 166+47% +46.7% 100% +24%
20-40 235+38.4% +34.4% 100% +20.7%
40-60 You are here443+43.8% +46.2% 99.8% +36%
60-80 325+31.2% +33.8% 96% +13.5%
80-100 279-8.1% -14.5% 27.2% -26.1%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 15.00, placing it in the 48.4 own-history percentile, inside the 40-60 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+10.1%
Win rate 62.6% Excess -0.9%
163d
+19.7%
Win rate 85% Excess +15.9%
514d
+9.7%
Win rate 66.3% Excess +0.8%
401d
60-day momentum down
+16.1%
Win rate 92.9% Excess +3.1%
168d
Now
+37.2%
Win rate 96.2% Excess +31.7%
130d
+3.3%
Win rate 46.4% Excess -8.5%
192d

Currently in “Middle × 60-day momentum down”: across 130 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 37.2%, win rate 96.2%, beat the market by 31.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

23 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.25%, win rate 60.9%, beating the market by -0.33 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

25 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.99%, win rate 62.5%, beating the market by +3.59 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.