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NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.

Consumer Cyclical

17.57 Close 10/30
Since 2024-12-02 -38.0%
Open
17.91
High
17.99
Low
17.31
Prev close
18.22
Volume
28.3M
Amplitude
3.73%
P/E
9.7
P/B
2.6
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+4.8%
52W 13.63 25.13

Is Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Quality: Good, Growth: Good, Risk / liquidity: Good; Valuation: Pricey.

Valuation Pricey TTM P/E is Fair, but Price / book is Pricey.
TTM P/E 9.71 24th percentile Fair
Price / book 2.56 67th percentile Pricey
Free-cash-flow yield (%) -6.58 31th percentile Average
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good ROE, TTM is Top, but FCF margin, TTM is Average.
ROE, TTM (%) 26.45 86th percentile Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) 13.85 63th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) -5.22 32th percentile Average
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Good Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Good, but Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Average.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 4.85 48th percentile Average
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 36.54 73th percentile Good
Momentum Neutral All 2 indicators are Average.
60-day return (%) -9.29 44th percentile Average
240-day return (%) -3.94 46th percentile Average
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top, but 60-day annualized volatility is Average.
20-day dollar volume 342,498,494 96th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 45.78 52th percentile Average
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) today

1 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) peers and tracking

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Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 19.91%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
20 historical occurrences (since 2015-05-07)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 44.4%, Sample 18, Median -3.1%, Excess -4.65%, Beat mkt rate 22.2%

60-day: Win 44.4%, Sample 18, Median -4.18%, Excess -3.63%, Beat mkt rate 38.9%

120-day: Win 41.2%, Sample 17, Median -7.34%, Excess -6.63%, Beat mkt rate 23.5%

120 days after: historical avg +0.51%

20-day -3.26%
60-day +0.3%
120-day +0.51%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
44.4%
44.4%
41.2%
Sample
18
18
17
Median
-3.1%
-4.18%
-7.34%
Excess
-4.65%
-3.63%
-6.63%
Beat mkt rate
22.2%
38.9%
23.5%

Over 17 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 0.51%, lagged the market by 6.63 pts; win rate 41.2%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here126+48.7% +17.6% 73.8% -11.5%
20-40 14Insufficient data
40-60 60-24.5% -22% 0% -40.4%
60-80 35-28.4% -30.5% 0% -45.5%
80-100 246+4.4% +2.6% 56.5% -8.4%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 9.71, placing it in the 7.4 own-history percentile, inside the 0-20 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
Insufficient data
(10d)
-11.2%
Win rate 9.2% Excess -17.6%
87d
-7.4%
Win rate 26.5% Excess -11.3%
185d
60-day momentum down
Now
+31%
Win rate 87.4% Excess -17.9%
127d
-9.3%
Win rate 4.3% Excess -16.8%
70d
+22%
Win rate 55.7% Excess +11.1%
122d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum down”: across 127 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 31%, win rate 87.4%, lagged the market by 17.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

12 times historically; 60-day forward avg -16.4%, win rate 16.7%, beating the market by -16.62 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

17 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.41%, win rate 58.8%, beating the market by -2.52 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

5 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.92%, win rate 40%, beating the market by +3.35 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.