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NFLX Netflix, Inc.

Communication Services

62.08 Close 10/30
Since 2024-12-02 -30.8%
Open
62.66
High
63.05
Low
61.64
Prev close
62.05
Volume
49.7M
Amplitude
2.27%
P/E
17.9
P/B
8.7
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+14.7%
52W 61.39 1,167

Is Netflix, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Quality: Strong, Growth: Good, Risk / liquidity: Good; Valuation: Pricey, Momentum: Weak.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but Price / book is Expensive.
TTM P/E 17.94 48th percentile Fair
Price / book 8.7 91th percentile Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 4.4 64th percentile Good
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Strong ROE, TTM is Top; FCF margin, TTM is Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 50.42 92th percentile Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) 31.3 84th percentile Top
FCF margin, TTM (%) 22.56 80th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Good All 2 indicators are Good.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 14.65 68th percentile Good
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 44.17 75th percentile Good
Momentum Weak 60-day return is Average; 240-day return is Lagging.
60-day return (%) -15.76 33th percentile Average
240-day return (%) -44.18 19th percentile Lagging
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 2,913,234,173 100th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 35.41 41th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) today

1 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Netflix, Inc. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Netflix, Inc. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like Netflix, Inc.

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) peers and tracking

Watchlist

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Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 6.1%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
25 historical occurrences (since 2015-01-20)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 52.4%, Sample 21, Median +1.05%, Excess -0.8%, Beat mkt rate 52.4%

60-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 21, Median +7.2%, Excess +0.8%, Beat mkt rate 57.1%

120-day: Win 71.4%, Sample 21, Median +15.75%, Excess +7.81%, Beat mkt rate 57.1%

120 days after: historical avg +11.17%

20-day +1.66%
60-day +3.38%
120-day +11.17%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
52.4%
57.1%
71.4%
Sample
21
21
21
Median
+1.05%
+7.2%
+15.75%
Excess
-0.8%
+0.8%
+7.81%
Beat mkt rate
52.4%
57.1%
57.1%

Over 21 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 11.17%, beat the market by 7.81 pts; win rate 71.4%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here794+21.5% +23.9% 67.1% +8.1%
20-40 568+34.9% +51.9% 72.7% +16.5%
40-60 62-28% -28.2% 0% -50.7%
60-80 0Insufficient data
80-100 0Insufficient data

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 17.94, placing it in the 0.1 own-history percentile, inside the 0-20 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+14.6%
Win rate 79.9% Excess +5.9%
936d
+1.7%
Win rate 46.4% Excess -7%
168d
Insufficient data
(0d)
60-day momentum down
Now
+12.6%
Win rate 63.6% Excess +5.6%
376d
Insufficient data
(27d)
Insufficient data
(0d)

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum down”: across 376 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 12.6%, win rate 63.6%, beat the market by 5.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

28 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.34%, win rate 85.7%, beating the market by +5.14 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

30 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.23%, win rate 70%, beating the market by +7.39 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

11 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.9%, win rate 72.7%, beating the market by +3.36 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.