NVAX Novavax, Inc.
- Open
- 9.56
- High
- 9.95
- Low
- 9.45
- Prev close
- 9.53
- Volume
- 3.5M
- Amplitude
- 5.25%
- Revenue YoY (TTM)
- -61.6%
Is Novavax, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
As of 2026-11-02
Momentum: Strong; Growth: Weak.
Valuation Neutral Free-cash-flow yield is Average.
Quality Neutral ROE, TTM is Top, but Operating margin, TTM is Lagging.
Growth Weak All 2 indicators are Lagging.
Momentum Strong All 2 indicators are Top.
Risk / liquidity Neutral 20-day dollar volume is Top, but 60-day annualized volatility is Average.
From Novavax, Inc. to every stock like it
AI finds several complementary traits of Novavax, Inc. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.
Screen stocks like Novavax, Inc.Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) peers and tracking
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Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) quant signal backtests
Market-wide momentum baseline
Across 99,771 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.43%, a 58.5% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.
Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).
More history: Signals not active now
Signals not active now
Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.
52-week adjusted-price high
PendingAdjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.
12 times historically; 60-day forward avg +104.33%, win rate 45.5%, beating the market by +98.29 pts on average.
Top-quintile 6-month momentum
PendingThe stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.
28 times historically; 60-day forward avg +26.21%, win rate 38.5%, beating the market by +24.57 pts on average.
Filed revenue acceleration
PendingTTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.
10 times historically; 60-day forward avg +17.68%, win rate 30%, beating the market by +12.98 pts on average.
EPS surprise beat
PendingReported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.
19 times historically; 60-day forward avg +29.35%, win rate 47.1%, beating the market by +25.2 pts on average.
Method and limits
- Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
- Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
- Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
- The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
- Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
- Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.
This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.