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OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.

Consumer Defensive

steady quality, premium valuation.

Quality
Above avg
Valuation
Expensive
Key signals
Filed revenue acceleration EPS surprise beat
73.23
73.23 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is above average. Operating margin sits near the 60th percentile. TTM ROE is about 12.7%.

  • Valuation is expensive. TTM P/E is in the 72th percentile, above most peers.

  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 53th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $138.0M.

  • Signals are active now. Filed revenue acceleration, EPS surprise beat currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Watchlist

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 16.61716640144737%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

14 historical occurrences (since 2018-06-07)
Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration。20-day: Win 42.9%, Sample 14, Median -1.03%, Excess -0.55%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%；60-day: Win 42.9%, Sample 14, Median -0.47%, Excess -1.96%, Beat mkt rate 35.7%；120-day: Win 50%, Sample 14, Median -0.71%, Excess -9.32%, Beat mkt rate 28.6%

120 days after: historical avg -0.39%

20-day +0.5%
60-day +3.42%
120-day -0.39%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
42.9%
42.9%
50%
Sample
14
14
14
Median
-1.03%
-0.47%
-0.71%
Excess
-0.55%
-1.96%
-9.32%
Beat mkt rate
42.9%
35.7%
28.6%

Over 14 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 0.39%, lagged the market by 9.32 pts; win rate 50%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 26.785714285714267%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

25 historical occurrences (since 2015-09-09)
Average forward return after EPS surprise beat。20-day: Win 63.6%, Sample 22, Median +1.59%, Excess +1.27%, Beat mkt rate 54.5%；60-day: Win 63.6%, Sample 22, Median +2.97%, Excess +0.6%, Beat mkt rate 45.5%；120-day: Win 68.2%, Sample 22, Median +11.88%, Excess +3.5%, Beat mkt rate 63.6%

120 days after: historical avg +12.08%

20-day +2.35%
60-day +4.64%
120-day +12.08%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
63.6%
63.6%
68.2%
Sample
22
22
22
Median
+1.59%
+2.97%
+11.88%
Excess
+1.27%
+0.6%
+3.5%
Beat mkt rate
54.5%
45.5%
63.6%

Over 22 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 12.08%, beat the market by 3.5 pts; win rate 68.2%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here468-10.4% -20% 30.8% -15.5%
20-40 246+37.9% +39% 98.8% +18.6%
40-60 325+20.8% +22.6% 87.1% +1%
60-80 224+9.4% +21.5% 66.5% -9.1%
80-100 122-22.3% -15.5% 9% -48.9%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 18.78, placing it in the 5.0 own-history percentile, inside the 0-20 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+1.9%
Win rate 56% Excess -5.5%
191d
+10.2%
Win rate 74.6% Excess +1.5%
422d
-8.1%
Win rate 22.2% Excess -17.8%
203d
60-day momentum down
Now
+2.7%
Win rate 50.2% Excess -2.5%
422d
+0.4%
Win rate 60.4% Excess -9.3%
240d
Insufficient data
(27d)

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum down”: across 422 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 2.7%, win rate 50.2%, lagged the market by 2.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,524 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.9% positive-return rate, and +2.77 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

23 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.51%, win rate 65.2%, beating the market by +1.36 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

25 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.72%, win rate 80%, beating the market by +3.25 pts on average.

Continue researching Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.