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PKG Packaging Corporation of America

Consumer Cyclical

256.82 Close 10/30
Since 2024-12-02 +10.2%
Open
255.75
High
257.23
Low
253.76
Prev close
254.53
Volume
555.6K
Amplitude
1.36%
P/E
31.6
P/B
4.9
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+12.0%
52W 191.50 259.98

Is Packaging Corporation of America a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Quality: Good, Momentum: Good, Risk / liquidity: Strong; Valuation: Pricey.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but Price / book is Expensive.
TTM P/E 31.63 70th percentile Pricey
Price / book 4.91 82th percentile Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 3.24 59th percentile Good
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good All 3 indicators are Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 15.58 77th percentile Good
Operating margin, TTM (%) 13.33 62th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 7.56 56th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Neutral Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Good, but Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Average.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 11.98 64th percentile Good
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) -17.9 47th percentile Average
Momentum Good 240-day return is Top; 60-day return is Good.
60-day return (%) 2.27 76th percentile Good
240-day return (%) 33.5 80th percentile Top
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Strong 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 160,783,134 91th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 22 24th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) today

2 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Packaging Corporation of America to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Packaging Corporation of America across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like Packaging Corporation of America

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) peers and tracking

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Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

23 historical occurrences (since 2017-01-06)

Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high

20-day: Win 72.7%, Sample 22, Median +3.1%, Excess +0.87%, Beat mkt rate 63.6%

60-day: Win 72.7%, Sample 22, Median +6.11%, Excess +0.74%, Beat mkt rate 59.1%

120-day: Win 76.2%, Sample 21, Median +8.63%, Excess +1.04%, Beat mkt rate 47.6%

120 days after: historical avg +8.49%

20-day +2.77%
60-day +5.52%
120-day +8.49%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
72.7%
72.7%
76.2%
Sample
22
22
21
Median
+3.1%
+6.11%
+8.63%
Excess
+0.87%
+0.74%
+1.04%
Beat mkt rate
63.6%
59.1%
47.6%

Over 21 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 8.49%, beat the market by 1.04 pts; win rate 76.2%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 11.98%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

6 historical occurrences (since 2018-05-09)

Over 6 occurrences, 20-day forward avg gained 1.62%, beat the market by 0.82 pts; win rate 50%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 146+37.8% +34.5% 100% +13.6%
20-40 189+24.4% +26.9% 81.5% +4.6%
40-60 317+17.7% +15.6% 61.8% +7.6%
60-80 350+23.4% +19.3% 88% +5.8%
80-100 You are here442+5.2% +6.3% 76.2% -7.4%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 31.63, placing it in the 99.4 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+8.1%
Win rate 88.4% Excess -1.7%
95d
+9.8%
Win rate 71.2% Excess +4.1%
319d
Now
+7.1%
Win rate 69.8% Excess -1.9%
587d
60-day momentum down
+14.3%
Win rate 82.1% Excess +5.5%
212d
+13.4%
Win rate 93.1% Excess +7.4%
189d
+10.2%
Win rate 77.2% Excess +1.1%
162d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 587 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 7.1%, win rate 69.8%, lagged the market by 1.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

14 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.13%, win rate 71.4%, beating the market by -1.34 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest

20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.54%, win rate 73.7%, beating the market by +3.94 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.