Quality is above average. Operating margin sits near the 62th percentile. TTM ROE is about 15.1%.
Valuation is expensive. TTM P/E is in the 82th percentile, above most peers.
Recent volatility is comparatively low. 60-day annualized volatility is in the 29th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $136.6M.
Signals are active now. Filed revenue acceleration currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.
Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but TTM P/E is Expensive.
All 3 indicators are Good.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Good, but Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Average.
240-day return is Good, but 60-day return is Average.
20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Fair.
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Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.
TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.
Over 5 occurrences, 20-day forward avg gained 2.54%, beat the market by 2.2 pts; win rate 60%.
Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 146 | +33.3% | +29.7% | 100% | +9.2% |
| 20-40 | 189 | +20.4% | +22.5% | 76.7% | +0.5% |
| 40-60 | 311 | +14% | +6.8% | 54.7% | +4% |
| 60-80 | 324 | +20.9% | +17.8% | 85.8% | +3.1% |
| 80-100 You are here | 442 | +2.6% | +3.6% | 66.3% | -10% |
Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.
Current TTM P/E is about 30.06, placing it in the 97.8 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.
Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum down”: across 150 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 8.8%, win rate 71.3%, lagged the market by 0.2%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Across 98,524 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.9% positive-return rate, and +2.77 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.
Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).
Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.
Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.
20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.07%, win rate 57.9%, beating the market by -0.79 pts on average.
The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.
13 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.1%, win rate 69.2%, beating the market by -0.35 pts on average.
Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.
20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.77%, win rate 73.7%, beating the market by +3.18 pts on average.
Continue researching Packaging Corporation of America with the evidence above.
Continue in Studio ↗This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.