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PM Philip Morris International Inc.

Consumer Defensive

208.29 -0.50 -0.24% Close 11/2
Since 2024-12-02 +71.2%
Open
209.94
High
209.94
Low
205.57
Prev close
208.79
Volume
4.8M
Amplitude
2.09%
P/E
30.5
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+8.0%
52W 142.11 214.35

Is Philip Morris International Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Quality: Good, Growth: Good, Momentum: Strong, Risk / liquidity: Strong; Valuation: Pricey.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but TTM P/E is Pricey.
TTM P/E 30.48 69th percentile Pricey
Price / book -41 N/A
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 4.18 63th percentile Good
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good Operating margin, TTM is Top, but ROE, TTM is Lagging.
ROE, TTM (%) -134.93 8th percentile Lagging
Operating margin, TTM (%) 38.62 88th percentile Top
FCF margin, TTM (%) 31.52 87th percentile Top
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Good All 2 indicators are Good.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 8.01 56th percentile Good
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 23.87 68th percentile Good
Momentum Strong All 2 indicators are Top.
60-day return (%) 11.98 87th percentile Top
240-day return (%) 39.08 83th percentile Top
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Strong 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 913,483,944 99th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 23.9 27th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) today

2 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Philip Morris International Inc. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Philip Morris International Inc. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like Philip Morris International Inc.

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) peers and tracking

Watchlist

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Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

19 historical occurrences (since 2017-02-07)

Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high

20-day: Win 55.6%, Sample 18, Median +1.9%, Excess +1.67%, Beat mkt rate 55.6%

60-day: Win 61.1%, Sample 18, Median +5.04%, Excess +2.65%, Beat mkt rate 55.6%

120-day: Win 75%, Sample 16, Median +14.15%, Excess +5.56%, Beat mkt rate 75%

120 days after: historical avg +9.86%

20-day +0.83%
60-day +3.66%
120-day +9.86%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
55.6%
61.1%
75%
Sample
18
18
16
Median
+1.9%
+5.04%
+14.15%
Excess
+1.67%
+2.65%
+5.56%
Beat mkt rate
55.6%
55.6%
75%

Over 16 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 9.86%, beat the market by 5.56 pts; win rate 75%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 82.17%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
14 historical occurrences (since 2017-05-15)

Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum

20-day: Win 46.2%, Sample 13, Median -1.42%, Excess -1.98%, Beat mkt rate 38.5%

60-day: Win 53.8%, Sample 13, Median +0.1%, Excess +0.56%, Beat mkt rate 53.8%

120-day: Win 53.8%, Sample 13, Median +0.13%, Excess +0.88%, Beat mkt rate 30.8%

120 days after: historical avg +4.46%

20-day -3.44%
60-day +1.44%
120-day +4.46%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
46.2%
53.8%
53.8%
Sample
13
13
13
Median
-1.42%
+0.1%
+0.13%
Excess
-1.98%
+0.56%
+0.88%
Beat mkt rate
38.5%
53.8%
30.8%

Over 13 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 4.46%, beat the market by 0.88 pts; win rate 53.8%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 228+26% +27.5% 97.8% +3.4%
20-40 310+13.2% +10% 80.6% -2.5%
40-60 322+12.2% +6.1% 75.5% +5.6%
60-80 329+37.7% +35.1% 80.9% +21.9%
80-100 You are here261+22.2% +21.6% 92.3% +4.1%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 30.48, placing it in the 92.7 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+15.7%
Win rate 97.2% Excess +3.6%
144d
+1.6%
Win rate 42.6% Excess -3.3%
399d
Now
+15.6%
Win rate 77.6% Excess +6.2%
433d
60-day momentum down
+11.6%
Win rate 93.9% Excess +4.1%
295d
+9.1%
Win rate 62.2% Excess +0.5%
148d
+15.3%
Win rate 100% Excess +8.5%
151d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 433 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 15.6%, win rate 77.6%, beat the market by 6.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest

21 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.46%, win rate 61.1%, beating the market by +0.1 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.