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PSX Phillips 66

Energy

275.04 -7.79 -2.76% Close 11/2
Since 2024-12-02 +119.6%
Open
280.33
High
283.47
Low
274.38
Prev close
282.83
Volume
3.9M
Amplitude
3.21%
P/E
9.0
P/B
3.2
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+28.5%
52W 127.16 299.39

Is Phillips 66 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Valuation: Fair, Quality: Good, Growth: Strong, Momentum: Strong, Risk / liquidity: Good.

Valuation Fair Free-cash-flow yield is Top, but Price / book is Pricey.
TTM P/E 9.03 22th percentile Fair
Price / book 3.21 73th percentile Pricey
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 13 86th percentile Top
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good ROE, TTM is Top; Operating margin, TTM is Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 36.63 89th percentile Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) 9.28 54th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 8.46 58th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Strong All 2 indicators are Top.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 28.48 80th percentile Top
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 758.94 96th percentile Top
Momentum Strong All 2 indicators are Top.
60-day return (%) 38.33 97th percentile Top
240-day return (%) 104.61 96th percentile Top
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 680,857,796 98th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 33.5 38th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Phillips 66 (PSX) today

3 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Phillips 66 to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Phillips 66 across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like Phillips 66

Phillips 66 (PSX) peers and tracking

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Phillips 66 (PSX) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 93.38%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
22 historical occurrences (since 2017-11-29)

Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum

20-day: Win 68.2%, Sample 22, Median +3.7%, Excess +2.06%, Beat mkt rate 54.5%

60-day: Win 42.9%, Sample 21, Median -1.06%, Excess -1.2%, Beat mkt rate 28.6%

120-day: Win 65%, Sample 20, Median +7.98%, Excess +2.24%, Beat mkt rate 60%

120 days after: historical avg +6.63%

20-day +2.41%
60-day +1.06%
120-day +6.63%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
68.2%
42.9%
65%
Sample
22
21
20
Median
+3.7%
-1.06%
+7.98%
Excess
+2.06%
-1.2%
+2.24%
Beat mkt rate
54.5%
28.6%
60%

Over 20 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.63%, beat the market by 2.24 pts; win rate 65%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 28.48%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

8 historical occurrences (since 2018-04-27)

Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration

20-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 7, Median +1.08%, Excess +3.68%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%

60-day: Win 71.4%, Sample 7, Median +2.87%, Excess +8.78%, Beat mkt rate 57.1%

120-day: Win 50%, Sample 6, Median +3.23%, Excess +4.36%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +2.73%

20-day +4.83%
60-day +7.27%
120-day +2.73%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.1%
71.4%
50%
Sample
7
7
6
Median
+1.08%
+2.87%
+3.23%
Excess
+3.68%
+8.78%
+4.36%
Beat mkt rate
42.9%
57.1%
50%

Over 6 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 2.73%, beat the market by 4.36 pts; win rate 50%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 20.03%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
35 historical occurrences (since 2015-01-29)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 61.3%, Sample 31, Median +1.66%, Excess +1.11%, Beat mkt rate 45.2%

60-day: Win 64.5%, Sample 31, Median +5.32%, Excess +2.32%, Beat mkt rate 54.8%

120-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 30, Median +12.63%, Excess +4.15%, Beat mkt rate 60%

120 days after: historical avg +10.08%

20-day +2.85%
60-day +5.69%
120-day +10.08%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61.3%
64.5%
66.7%
Sample
31
31
30
Median
+1.66%
+5.32%
+12.63%
Excess
+1.11%
+2.32%
+4.15%
Beat mkt rate
45.2%
54.8%
60%

Over 30 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 10.08%, beat the market by 4.15 pts; win rate 66.7%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 304+39.9% +35.4% 100% +16.8%
20-40 You are here97+17.5% +9.4% 77.3% -8.7%
40-60 147-2.8% -9.2% 34.7% -17%
60-80 225+11.4% +6.8% 66.7% -2%
80-100 270+59% +53.5% 100% +42.6%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 9.03, placing it in the 32.4 own-history percentile, inside the 20-40 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
Now
+16.5%
Win rate 76.1% Excess +4.6%
213d
+14.1%
Win rate 61.6% Excess +5.5%
198d
+22%
Win rate 89.9% Excess +14.5%
268d
60-day momentum down
+31.3%
Win rate 98.1% Excess +13.1%
159d
+0.8%
Win rate 34.4% Excess -10.6%
122d
+14%
Win rate 71.9% Excess +3.4%
203d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 213 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 16.5%, win rate 76.1%, beat the market by 4.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

24 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.98%, win rate 59.1%, beating the market by +2.81 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.