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PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc.

Financial Services

58.78 +1.77 +3.10% Close 11/2
Since 2024-12-02 -33.4%
Open
57.58
High
59.03
Low
57.26
Prev close
57.01
Volume
14.5M
Amplitude
3.10%
P/E
10.9
P/B
2.4
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+4.4%
52W 38.46 70.35

Is PayPal Holdings, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Valuation: Fair, Quality: Good, Risk / liquidity: Good.

Valuation Fair Free-cash-flow yield is Top, but Price / book is Pricey.
TTM P/E 10.88 28th percentile Fair
Price / book 2.43 65th percentile Pricey
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 13.32 87th percentile Top
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good ROE, TTM is Top; Operating margin, TTM is Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 24.26 85th percentile Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) 18.34 69th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 18.39 74th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Neutral Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Good, but Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Average.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 4.36 46th percentile Average
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 5.01 58th percentile Good
Momentum Neutral 60-day return is Good, but 240-day return is Average.
60-day return (%) -4.39 56th percentile Good
240-day return (%) -8.22 42th percentile Average
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 627,637,135 98th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 37.22 43th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) today

1 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From PayPal Holdings, Inc. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of PayPal Holdings, Inc. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like PayPal Holdings, Inc.

PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) peers and tracking

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PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 10.69%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
29 historical occurrences (since 2015-07-29)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 57.7%, Sample 26, Median +3.31%, Excess -0.27%, Beat mkt rate 57.7%

60-day: Win 61.5%, Sample 26, Median +9.08%, Excess +0.91%, Beat mkt rate 57.7%

120-day: Win 56%, Sample 25, Median +4.34%, Excess +0.11%, Beat mkt rate 48%

120 days after: historical avg +8.19%

20-day +1.61%
60-day +5.51%
120-day +8.19%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.7%
61.5%
56%
Sample
26
26
25
Median
+3.31%
+9.08%
+4.34%
Excess
-0.27%
+0.91%
+0.11%
Beat mkt rate
57.7%
57.7%
48%

Over 25 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 8.19%, beat the market by 0.11 pts; win rate 56%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here919-8.4% -16% 29.2% -23.7%
20-40 34-8.3% -30.7% 14.7% -24.4%
40-60 64-4% -35% 21.9% -15.2%
60-80 154-45.8% -66% 9.7% -43.8%
80-100 251+23.2% +35.3% 63.7% -3.9%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 10.88, placing it in the 6.9 own-history percentile, inside the 0-20 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
-4.1%
Win rate 32.8% Excess -11.3%
344d
-4.2%
Win rate 15.3% Excess -8.1%
59d
+11.9%
Win rate 70.6% Excess -0.1%
326d
60-day momentum down
Now
-5.2%
Win rate 34.1% Excess -11.8%
706d
-3.6%
Win rate 25% Excess -11.5%
40d
-15.5%
Win rate 41.2% Excess -24.4%
51d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum down”: across 706 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 5.2%, win rate 34.1%, lagged the market by 11.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

19 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.77%, win rate 63.2%, beating the market by +5.25 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

15 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.9%, win rate 66.7%, beating the market by +4.69 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

8 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.26%, win rate 75%, beating the market by +4.7 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.