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RJF

Raymond James Financial, Inc. Financial Services As of 2026-07-31 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
52-week adjusted-price high EPS surprise beat
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add Raymond James Financial, Inc. to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 50Quality 59Growth 63Momentum 63Risk / liquidity 84

Is Raymond James Financial, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is above average. Operating margin sits near the 63th percentile.

  • Valuation is middle-of-pack. TTM P/E is near the 67th percentile.

  • Recent volatility is comparatively low. 60-day annualized volatility is in the 24th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $209.5M.

  • Signals are active now. 52-week adjusted-price high, EPS surprise beat currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

20 historical occurrences (since 2017-01-06)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 52.6%, Sample 19, Median +2.26%, Excess -0.35%, Beat mkt rate 42.1%；60-day: Win 57.9%, Sample 19, Median +3.29%, Excess -0.91%, Beat mkt rate 42.1%；120-day: Win 42.1%, Sample 19, Median -4.74%, Excess -3.85%, Beat mkt rate 42.1%

120 days after: historical avg -2.35%

20-day -0.85%
60-day -1.08%
120-day -2.35%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
52.6%
57.9%
42.1%
Sample
19
19
19
Median
+2.26%
+3.29%
-4.74%
Excess
-0.35%
-0.91%
-3.85%
Beat mkt rate
42.1%
42.1%
42.1%

Over 19 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 2.35%, lagged the market by 3.85 pts; win rate 42.1%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 7.167235494880544%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

19 historical occurrences (since 2016-04-20)
Average forward return after EPS surprise beat。20-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 18, Median +4.5%, Excess +4.26%, Beat mkt rate 55.6%；60-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 18, Median +8.55%, Excess +4.91%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%；120-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 18, Median +11.2%, Excess +7.04%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%

120 days after: historical avg +13.1%

20-day +5.65%
60-day +8.41%
120-day +13.1%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
66.7%
66.7%
66.7%
Sample
18
18
18
Median
+4.5%
+8.55%
+11.2%
Excess
+4.26%
+4.91%
+7.04%
Beat mkt rate
55.6%
66.7%
66.7%

Over 18 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 13.1%, beat the market by 7.04 pts; win rate 66.7%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 197+65.9% +79.1% 97% +32%
20-40 416+22.7% +12.4% 87.5% +4.4%
40-60 You are here673+15.2% +8.9% 78.5% +6.7%
60-80 128+9.7% +3.1% 68% -2.4%
80-100 26Insufficient data

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 15.33, placing it in the 53.6 own-history percentile, inside the 40-60 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+15.8%
Win rate 65.8% Excess +7%
184d
Now
+5.9%
Win rate 60.1% Excess +0.8%
776d
+2.2%
Win rate 53.5% Excess -3.7%
99d
60-day momentum down
+22.7%
Win rate 97.7% Excess +9.2%
261d
+10.1%
Win rate 59.6% Excess +3.2%
240d
Insufficient data
(0d)

Currently in “Middle × 60-day momentum up”: across 776 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 5.9%, win rate 60.1%, beat the market by 0.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 97,878 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.26%, a 58.3% positive-return rate, and +2.90 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

15 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.11%, win rate 60%, beating the market by +0.08 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

7 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.58%, win rate 71.4%, beating the market by +6.14 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.