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SHOP Shopify Inc.

Technology

157.49 Close 10/30
Since 2024-12-02 +39.4%
Open
161.89
High
162.10
Low
154.26
Prev close
166.89
Volume
10.5M
Amplitude
4.70%
P/E
105.7
P/B
16.1
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+32.5%
52W 94.00 180.88

Is Shopify Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Quality: Good, Growth: Good, Momentum: Good, Risk / liquidity: Good; Valuation: Pricey.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but Price / book is Expensive.
TTM P/E 105.7 92th percentile Expensive
Price / book 16.08 95th percentile Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 1.15 51th percentile Good
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good All 3 indicators are Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 15.2 76th percentile Good
Operating margin, TTM (%) 13.9 63th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 17.73 73th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Good Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Top, but Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Average.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 32.5 83th percentile Top
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) -17.22 47th percentile Average
Momentum Good 60-day return is Top; 240-day return is Good.
60-day return (%) 6.82 82th percentile Top
240-day return (%) 7.84 60th percentile Good
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top, but 60-day annualized volatility is Average.
20-day dollar volume 1,333,255,610 99th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 49.25 55th percentile Average
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) today

1 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Shopify Inc. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Shopify Inc. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like Shopify Inc.

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) peers and tracking

Watchlist

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Shopify Inc. (SHOP) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 32.5%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

13 historical occurrences (since 2020-06-30)

Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration

20-day: Win 61.5%, Sample 13, Median +4.93%, Excess +0.2%, Beat mkt rate 46.2%

60-day: Win 69.2%, Sample 13, Median +12.08%, Excess +1.73%, Beat mkt rate 61.5%

120-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 12, Median +13.09%, Excess +3.34%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +14.4%

20-day +3.5%
60-day +7.46%
120-day +14.4%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61.5%
69.2%
66.7%
Sample
13
13
12
Median
+4.93%
+12.08%
+13.09%
Excess
+0.2%
+1.73%
+3.34%
Beat mkt rate
46.2%
61.5%
50%

Over 12 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 14.4%, beat the market by 3.34 pts; win rate 66.7%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 24Insufficient data
20-40 You are here26Insufficient data
40-60 0Insufficient data
60-80 0Insufficient data
80-100 0Insufficient data

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 105.70, placing it in the 33.9 own-history percentile, inside the 20-40 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
-21.4%
Win rate 0% Excess -22.8%
41d
Now
-26%
Win rate 6.5% Excess -34.7%
46d
Insufficient data
(0d)
60-day momentum down
Insufficient data
(17d)
+16.7%
Win rate 84.8% Excess +4.4%
66d
Insufficient data
(0d)

Currently in “Middle × 60-day momentum up”: across 46 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 26%, win rate 6.5%, lagged the market by 34.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

29 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.76%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +5.28 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

29 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.32%, win rate 71.4%, beating the market by +6.35 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest

26 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.68%, win rate 69.2%, beating the market by +7.86 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.