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SM SM Energy Company

Energy

40.38 Close 10/30
Since 2024-12-02 -2.8%
Open
40.00
High
40.44
Low
39.68
Prev close
39.58
Volume
2.6M
Amplitude
1.92%
P/E
10.5
P/B
1.2
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+77.5%
52W 17.45 41.56

Is SM Energy Company a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Valuation: Fair, Quality: Good, Growth: Good, Momentum: Strong, Risk / liquidity: Good.

Valuation Fair TTM P/E is Fair, but Free-cash-flow yield is Average.
TTM P/E 10.49 27th percentile Fair
Price / book 1.23 41th percentile Fair
Free-cash-flow yield (%) -0.39 44th percentile Average
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good Operating margin, TTM is Good, but FCF margin, TTM is Average.
ROE, TTM (%) 12.8 72th percentile Good
Operating margin, TTM (%) 26.3 80th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) -0.68 37th percentile Average
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Good Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Top, but Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Average.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 77.52 90th percentile Top
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) -45.54 37th percentile Average
Momentum Strong All 2 indicators are Top.
60-day return (%) 41.55 97th percentile Top
240-day return (%) 120.94 97th percentile Top
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top, but 60-day annualized volatility is Average.
20-day dollar volume 92,908,570 86th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 46.05 52th percentile Average
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

SM Energy Company (SM) today

2 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From SM Energy Company to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of SM Energy Company across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

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SM Energy Company (SM) peers and tracking

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SM Energy Company (SM) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 86.25%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
25 historical occurrences (since 2016-07-05)

Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum

20-day: Win 70.8%, Sample 24, Median +7.72%, Excess +4.54%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%

60-day: Win 58.3%, Sample 24, Median +6.32%, Excess +14.35%, Beat mkt rate 54.2%

120-day: Win 45.8%, Sample 24, Median -1.25%, Excess +32.26%, Beat mkt rate 45.8%

120 days after: historical avg +37.02%

20-day +6.54%
60-day +16.31%
120-day +37.02%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
70.8%
58.3%
45.8%
Sample
24
24
24
Median
+7.72%
+6.32%
-1.25%
Excess
+4.54%
+14.35%
+32.26%
Beat mkt rate
66.7%
54.2%
45.8%

Over 24 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 37.02%, beat the market by 32.26 pts; win rate 45.8%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 77.52%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

12 historical occurrences (since 2018-11-02)

Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration

20-day: Win 75%, Sample 12, Median +3.32%, Excess +6.52%, Beat mkt rate 58.3%

60-day: Win 58.3%, Sample 12, Median +4.57%, Excess +7.22%, Beat mkt rate 66.7%

120-day: Win 54.5%, Sample 11, Median +3.96%, Excess +5.3%, Beat mkt rate 54.5%

120 days after: historical avg +8.9%

20-day +7.74%
60-day +8.34%
120-day +8.9%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
75%
58.3%
54.5%
Sample
12
12
11
Median
+3.32%
+4.57%
+3.96%
Excess
+6.52%
+7.22%
+5.3%
Beat mkt rate
58.3%
66.7%
54.5%

Over 11 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 8.9%, beat the market by 5.3 pts; win rate 54.5%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 190+48.8% +42.4% 96.3% +27.9%
20-40 182-4.8% +6.3% 56.6% -26.1%
40-60 264-30.2% -39.3% 20.1% -45.8%
60-80 You are here0Insufficient data
80-100 0Insufficient data

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 10.49, placing it in the 69.8 own-history percentile, inside the 60-80 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+8.2%
Win rate 58.1% Excess -1.7%
167d
+1.1%
Win rate 48.9% Excess -9.3%
184d
Now
Insufficient data
(3d)
60-day momentum down
+20.2%
Win rate 58.9% Excess +9.9%
214d
-10.1%
Win rate 31.9% Excess -17%
188d
Insufficient data
(0d)

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

16 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.98%, win rate 40%, beating the market by +4.78 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest

31 times historically; 60-day forward avg +19.71%, win rate 60%, beating the market by +16.14 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.