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SM SM Energy Company

Energy

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

Quality
Weak
Valuation
Expensive
Key signals
52-week adjusted-price high Top-quintile 6-month momentum Filed revenue acceleration
38.16
38.16 Close (USD) Loading candles…

Is SM Energy Company a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is weaker than peers. Operating margin is only around the 49th percentile. TTM ROE is about 1.9%.

  • Valuation is expensive. TTM P/E is in the 84th percentile, above most peers.

  • Recent volatility is moderate. 60-day annualized volatility is near the 60th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $141.3M.

  • Signals are active now. 52-week adjusted-price high, Top-quintile 6-month momentum, Filed revenue acceleration currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Watchlist

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Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

16 historical occurrences (since 2018-05-21)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 56.2%, Sample 16, Median +4.92%, Excess +2.38%, Beat mkt rate 56.2%；60-day: Win 40%, Sample 15, Median -1.6%, Excess +4.73%, Beat mkt rate 40%；120-day: Win 71.4%, Sample 14, Median +10.82%, Excess +21.34%, Beat mkt rate 64.3%

120 days after: historical avg +25.35%

20-day +3.91%
60-day +7.93%
120-day +25.35%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
56.2%
40%
71.4%
Sample
16
15
14
Median
+4.92%
-1.6%
+10.82%
Excess
+2.38%
+4.73%
+21.34%
Beat mkt rate
56.2%
40%
64.3%

Over 14 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 25.35%, beat the market by 21.34 pts; win rate 71.4%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 86.86440677966102%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

27 historical occurrences (since 2016-07-05)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 27, Median +7%, Excess +3.75%, Beat mkt rate 63%；60-day: Win 55.6%, Sample 27, Median +3.89%, Excess +11.4%, Beat mkt rate 51.9%；120-day: Win 48%, Sample 25, Median -2.97%, Excess +30.16%, Beat mkt rate 48%

120 days after: historical avg +33.69%

20-day +5.45%
60-day +13.54%
120-day +33.69%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
66.7%
55.6%
48%
Sample
27
27
25
Median
+7%
+3.89%
-2.97%
Excess
+3.75%
+11.4%
+30.16%
Beat mkt rate
63%
51.9%
48%

Over 25 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 33.69%, beat the market by 30.16 pts; win rate 48%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 28.53211913764366%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

11 historical occurrences (since 2018-11-02)
Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration。20-day: Win 72.7%, Sample 11, Median +1.82%, Excess +4.36%, Beat mkt rate 54.5%；60-day: Win 54.5%, Sample 11, Median +0.62%, Excess +3.58%, Beat mkt rate 54.5%；120-day: Win 50%, Sample 10, Median -0.88%, Excess +1.79%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +5.25%

20-day +5.62%
60-day +4.98%
120-day +5.25%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
72.7%
54.5%
50%
Sample
11
11
10
Median
+1.82%
+0.62%
-0.88%
Excess
+4.36%
+3.58%
+1.79%
Beat mkt rate
54.5%
54.5%
50%

Over 10 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.25%, beat the market by 1.79 pts; win rate 50%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 51+64.2% +71.4% 100% +40.5%
20-40 248+7.8% +13.1% 71% -13.3%
40-60 226-22% -33.5% 32.7% -41.4%
60-80 80-47% -47.8% 0% -55.9%
80-100 You are here0Insufficient data

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 33.18, placing it in the 93.0 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+3.7%
Win rate 53.3% Excess -3.9%
107d
+1.5%
Win rate 47.3% Excess -10%
203d
Now
Insufficient data
(7d)
60-day momentum down
+20.9%
Win rate 60.2% Excess +10.3%
206d
-12.2%
Win rate 29.7% Excess -18.8%
202d
Insufficient data
(0d)

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,524 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.12%, a 57.9% positive-return rate, and +2.77 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

31 times historically; 60-day forward avg +18.83%, win rate 58.6%, beating the market by +15.16 pts on average.

Continue researching SM Energy Company with the evidence above.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.