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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc. Technology As of 2026-07-31 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Filed revenue acceleration
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add Super Micro Computer, Inc. to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 28Quality 48Growth 82Momentum 36Risk / liquidity 54

Is Super Micro Computer, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is weaker than peers. Operating margin is only around the 45th percentile. TTM ROE is about 16.5%.

  • Valuation is middle-of-pack. TTM P/E is near the 66th percentile.

  • Recent volatility is elevated. 60-day annualized volatility is in the 92th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $1,192.8M.

  • Signals are active now. Filed revenue acceleration currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 56.238495446394296%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

17 historical occurrences (since 2017-10-02)
Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration。20-day: Win 52.9%, Sample 17, Median +5.76%, Excess +3.88%, Beat mkt rate 52.9%；60-day: Win 43.8%, Sample 16, Median -7.28%, Excess -0.52%, Beat mkt rate 37.5%；120-day: Win 62.5%, Sample 16, Median +17.49%, Excess +17.66%, Beat mkt rate 62.5%

120 days after: historical avg +20.74%

20-day +4.29%
60-day +0.25%
120-day +20.74%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
52.9%
43.8%
62.5%
Sample
17
16
16
Median
+5.76%
-7.28%
+17.49%
Excess
+3.88%
-0.52%
+17.66%
Beat mkt rate
52.9%
37.5%
62.5%

Over 16 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 20.74%, beat the market by 17.66 pts; win rate 62.5%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 288+342.1% +292.9% 99.7% +319.9%
20-40 You are here237+78.1% +37.2% 92.4% +64.7%
40-60 235+51.5% +30.1% 85.1% +37.1%
60-80 215+59.2% +37.7% 86.5% +51.2%
80-100 523+20.2% +0.7% 50.1% +5%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 15.03, placing it in the 23.2 own-history percentile, inside the 20-40 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
Now
+100.5%
Win rate 98.3% Excess +95.7%
288d
+18.4%
Win rate 85.8% Excess +13.9%
254d
+24.4%
Win rate 53.9% Excess +16.6%
538d
60-day momentum down
+45.4%
Win rate 95.2% Excess +35.1%
126d
+36.1%
Win rate 93.5% Excess +30.3%
138d
+14.8%
Win rate 40.9% Excess +6.6%
274d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 288 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 100.5%, win rate 98.3%, beat the market by 95.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 97,878 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.26%, a 58.3% positive-return rate, and +2.90 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

15 times historically; 60-day forward avg +16.52%, win rate 46.7%, beating the market by +17.71 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

22 times historically; 60-day forward avg +25.51%, win rate 57.1%, beating the market by +23.85 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

17 times historically; 60-day forward avg +14.82%, win rate 68.8%, beating the market by +11.48 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.