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SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc.

Technology

30.44 -2.51 -7.62% Close 11/2
Since 2024-12-02 -21.5%
Open
33.45
High
33.50
Low
30.27
Prev close
32.95
Volume
40.3M
Amplitude
9.80%
P/E
10.1
P/B
1.5
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+77.8%
52W 19.48 53.01

Is Super Micro Computer, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Growth: Strong, Momentum: Good, Risk / liquidity: Good; Valuation: Pricey.

Valuation Pricey TTM P/E is Fair, but Free-cash-flow yield is Lagging.
TTM P/E 10.11 26th percentile Fair
Price / book 1.5 50th percentile Fair
Free-cash-flow yield (%) -32.21 19th percentile Lagging
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Neutral ROE, TTM is Good, but FCF margin, TTM is Average.
ROE, TTM (%) 15.4 76th percentile Good
Operating margin, TTM (%) 7.09 50th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) -17.85 24th percentile Average
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Strong All 2 indicators are Top.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 77.79 90th percentile Top
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 183.48 89th percentile Top
Momentum Good 60-day return is Top, but 240-day return is Average.
60-day return (%) 12.15 87th percentile Top
240-day return (%) -9.53 40th percentile Average
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top, but 60-day annualized volatility is Average.
20-day dollar volume 1,242,632,607 99th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 78.28 75th percentile Average
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) today

1 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Super Micro Computer, Inc. to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Super Micro Computer, Inc. across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like Super Micro Computer, Inc.

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) peers and tracking

Watchlist

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Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 77.79%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

18 historical occurrences (since 2017-10-02)

Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration

20-day: Win 55.6%, Sample 18, Median +5.9%, Excess +4.23%, Beat mkt rate 55.6%

60-day: Win 41.2%, Sample 17, Median -8.54%, Excess -1.45%, Beat mkt rate 35.3%

120-day: Win 58.8%, Sample 17, Median +12.09%, Excess +16.39%, Beat mkt rate 58.8%

120 days after: historical avg +19.42%

20-day +4.61%
60-day -0.49%
120-day +19.42%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
55.6%
41.2%
58.8%
Sample
18
17
17
Median
+5.9%
-8.54%
+12.09%
Excess
+4.23%
-1.45%
+16.39%
Beat mkt rate
55.6%
35.3%
58.8%

Over 17 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 19.42%, beat the market by 16.39 pts; win rate 58.8%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here551+172.2% +37% 60.1% +152%
20-40 203+93.1% +43.9% 100% +80%
40-60 195+65.4% +36.9% 100% +52.2%
60-80 187+70.5% +40.7% 97.3% +63.7%
80-100 425+30.4% +8.8% 56.9% +16.1%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 10.11, placing it in the 0.3 own-history percentile, inside the 0-20 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
Now
+64.6%
Win rate 75.3% Excess +58%
442d
+15.5%
Win rate 84.2% Excess +12.4%
228d
+38.5%
Win rate 65.7% Excess +30.8%
426d
60-day momentum down
+22.3%
Win rate 69.2% Excess +13.2%
338d
+37.4%
Win rate 93.6% Excess +32.6%
94d
+35.7%
Win rate 53.6% Excess +25.5%
153d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 442 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 64.6%, win rate 75.3%, beat the market by 58%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

15 times historically; 60-day forward avg +16.52%, win rate 46.7%, beating the market by +17.71 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

21 times historically; 60-day forward avg +22.86%, win rate 57.9%, beating the market by +20.65 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest

18 times historically; 60-day forward avg +14.82%, win rate 68.8%, beating the market by +11.48 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.