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SMTC

Semtech Corporation Technology As of 2026-06-18
Quality Above avg
Valuation Cheaper
Risk High vol
Active signals Active 52-week adjusted-price high Top-quintile 6-month momentum
158.23 Close (USD)
+102.99% 60-day
  • Quality is above average. Operating margin sits near the 59th percentile. TTM ROE is about -5.8%.
  • Valuation is cheaper than most peers. TTM P/E is in the 1th percentile, lower than most liquid US common stocks.
  • Recent volatility is elevated. 60-day annualized volatility is in the 84th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $721.7M.
  • Signals are active now. 52-week adjusted-price high, Top-quintile 6-month momentum currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Factor profile

Factor radar Neutral Valuation
51
ValuationQualityGrowthMomentumRisk / liquidity

Valuation

Indicators in this group are ranked by market percentile; lower valuation and volatility are better.

51 Neutral
TTM P/E -403.03
Cheap
Price / book 25.64
Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 1.1
Good

Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

22 historical occurrences (since 2017-01-13)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 63.6%, Sample 22, Median +2.34%, Excess +1.96%, Beat mkt rate 50%；60-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 21, Median +4.19%, Excess +1%, Beat mkt rate 52.4%；120-day: Win 50%, Sample 20, Median -0.28%, Excess +1.36%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +7.25%

20-day +3.58%
60-day +3.89%
120-day +7.25%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
63.6%
57.1%
50%
Sample
22
21
20
Median
+2.34%
+4.19%
-0.28%
Excess
+1.96%
+1%
+1.36%
Beat mkt rate
50%
52.4%
50%

Over 20 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.25%, beat the market by 1.36 pts; win rate 50%.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 94.40677966101696%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

20 historical occurrences (since 2016-07-05)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 50%, Sample 20, Median -1.36%, Excess +2.45%, Beat mkt rate 45%；60-day: Win 50%, Sample 20, Median +0.48%, Excess +3.28%, Beat mkt rate 40%；120-day: Win 52.6%, Sample 19, Median +1.24%, Excess +0.34%, Beat mkt rate 47.4%

120 days after: historical avg +4.92%

20-day +3.54%
60-day +6.94%
120-day +4.92%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
50%
52.6%
Sample
20
20
19
Median
-1.36%
+0.48%
+1.24%
Excess
+2.45%
+3.28%
+0.34%
Beat mkt rate
45%
40%
47.4%

Over 19 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 4.92%, beat the market by 0.34 pts; win rate 52.6%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 214+43.7% +11.1% 57% +5%
20-40 186-18.4% -12.3% 25.8% -13.8%
40-60 147-10.6% -7.4% 34.7% -10.7%
60-80 113+42.3% +40.3% 99.1% +19%
80-100 You are here263+21.1% +20.2% 88.6% -4.8%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 239.43, placing it in the 93.4 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+37.5%
Win rate 51.8% Excess +12.4%
137d
-9.9%
Win rate 25% Excess -9.4%
92d
+9.2%
Win rate 51.6% Excess -0.1%
283d
60-day momentum down
+33.2%
Win rate 39.5% Excess +18.5%
294d
+25.4%
Win rate 98.5% Excess +14.4%
137d
Now
+12.5%
Win rate 77% Excess +2.7%
100d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum down”: across 100 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 12.5%, win rate 77%, beat the market by 2.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 94,737 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.40%, a 58.3% positive-return rate, and +3.10 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

8 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.35%, win rate 75%, beating the market by +5.96 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

21 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.13%, win rate 65%, beating the market by +4.21 pts on average.

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Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.