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SMTC Semtech Corporation

Technology

127.38 Close 10/30
Since 2024-12-02 +103.2%
Open
127.98
High
132.70
Low
122.39
Prev close
140.85
Volume
3.2M
Amplitude
7.32%
P/E
84.5
P/B
15.8
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+17.8%
52W 60.28 201.97

Is Semtech Corporation a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Quality: Good, Growth: Strong, Momentum: Good; Valuation: Pricey.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but Price / book is Expensive.
TTM P/E 84.5 91th percentile Expensive
Price / book 15.84 95th percentile Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 1.53 53th percentile Good
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good ROE, TTM is Top; Operating margin, TTM is Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 20.56 83th percentile Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) 12.71 61th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 15.45 70th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Strong Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Top; Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Good.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 17.84 72th percentile Good
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 528.08 95th percentile Top
Momentum Good 240-day return is Top; 60-day return is Good.
60-day return (%) -5.49 53th percentile Good
240-day return (%) 94.59 95th percentile Top
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Neutral 20-day dollar volume is Top, but 60-day annualized volatility is Lagging.
20-day dollar volume 521,382,723 97th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 92.67 81th percentile Lagging
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Semtech Corporation (SMTC) today

1 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Semtech Corporation to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Semtech Corporation across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like Semtech Corporation

Semtech Corporation (SMTC) peers and tracking

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Semtech Corporation (SMTC) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 17.84%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

9 historical occurrences (since 2017-05-31)

Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration

20-day: Win 77.8%, Sample 9, Median +9.88%, Excess +9.32%, Beat mkt rate 55.6%

60-day: Win 75%, Sample 8, Median +9.04%, Excess +5.91%, Beat mkt rate 62.5%

120-day: Win 62.5%, Sample 8, Median +24.86%, Excess +19.15%, Beat mkt rate 62.5%

120 days after: historical avg +23.71%

20-day +10.55%
60-day +9.35%
120-day +23.71%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
77.8%
75%
62.5%
Sample
9
8
8
Median
+9.88%
+9.04%
+24.86%
Excess
+9.32%
+5.91%
+19.15%
Beat mkt rate
55.6%
62.5%
62.5%

Over 8 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 23.71%, beat the market by 19.15 pts; win rate 62.5%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 261+108.4% +30.5% 64.8% +60.1%
20-40 186-18.4% -12.3% 25.8% -13.8%
40-60 147-10.6% -7.4% 34.7% -10.7%
60-80 You are here113+42.3% +40.3% 99.1% +19%
80-100 263+21.1% +20.2% 88.6% -4.8%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 84.50, placing it in the 70.2 own-history percentile, inside the 60-80 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+37.5%
Win rate 51.8% Excess +12.4%
137d
-9.9%
Win rate 25% Excess -9.4%
92d
+26.6%
Win rate 58.5% Excess +16.6%
330d
60-day momentum down
+33.2%
Win rate 39.5% Excess +18.5%
294d
+25.4%
Win rate 98.5% Excess +14.4%
137d
Now
+12.5%
Win rate 77% Excess +2.7%
100d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum down”: across 100 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 12.5%, win rate 77%, beat the market by 2.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

23 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.44%, win rate 59.1%, beating the market by +2.36 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +10.44%, win rate 57.9%, beating the market by +7.86 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest

22 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.54%, win rate 61.9%, beating the market by +2.79 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.