Skip to main content

STWD Starwood Property Trust, Inc.

Real Estate

12.38

Close 10/14

P/E
18.2
P/B
0.7
Loading candles…

Is Starwood Property Trust, Inc. a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-14

Valuation: Fair, Quality: Good, Risk / liquidity: Strong.

Valuation Fair Free-cash-flow yield is Top; TTM P/E is Fair.
TTM P/E 18.17 47th percentile Fair
Price / book 0.71 21th percentile Fair
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 12.83 87th percentile Top
Quality Good Operating margin, TTM is Top, but ROE, TTM is Average.
ROE, TTM (%) 3.51 48th percentile Average
Operating margin, TTM (%) 73.42 95th percentile Top
FCF margin, TTM (%) 29.06 85th percentile Top
Growth Neutral Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Good, but Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Average.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 10.53 62th percentile Good
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) -36.93 40th percentile Average
Momentum Neutral All 2 indicators are Average.
60-day return (%) -22.77 23th percentile Average
240-day return (%) -23.78 32th percentile Average
Risk / liquidity Strong All 2 indicators are Top.
20-day dollar volume 83,475,173 86th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 18.58 20th percentile Top

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) today

1 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-14

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) peers and tracking

Watchlist

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add Starwood Property Trust, Inc. to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 10.53%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

7 historical occurrences (since 2019-01-07)
Average forward return after Filed revenue acceleration。20-day: Win 42.9%, Sample 7, Median -0.31%, Excess -7.24%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%；60-day: Win 50%, Sample 6, Median -1.41%, Excess -7.15%, Beat mkt rate 33.3%；120-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 6, Median +5.87%, Excess -9.25%, Beat mkt rate 33.3%

120 days after: historical avg -0.19%

20-day -7.34%
60-day -2.48%
120-day -0.19%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
42.9%
50%
66.7%
Sample
7
6
6
Median
-0.31%
-1.41%
+5.87%
Excess
-7.24%
-7.15%
-9.25%
Beat mkt rate
42.9%
33.3%
33.3%

Over 6 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 0.19%, lagged the market by 9.25 pts; win rate 66.7%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 475+38.4% +21.6% 77.7% +14.3%
20-40 91+14.6% +8.6% 91.2% -11.1%
40-60 206+11.3% +5.7% 66.5% +5.4%
60-80 212-6.5% -7.9% 31.1% -5.1%
80-100 You are here443+0.6% +1.9% 59.6% -15%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 18.17, placing it in the 86.7 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+18.8%
Win rate 79.3% Excess +8.2%
270d
+10.6%
Win rate 66.1% Excess +0.8%
189d
-0.5%
Win rate 48.3% Excess -6.4%
447d
60-day momentum down
+11.3%
Win rate 64.3% Excess +0.1%
291d
+0.3%
Win rate 50.9% Excess -3.6%
116d
Now
+2%
Win rate 63.7% Excess -2.2%
234d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum down”: across 234 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 2%, win rate 63.7%, lagged the market by 2.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 98,465 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.50%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.15 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

20 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.34%, win rate 65%, beating the market by -3.99 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

8 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.18%, win rate 62.5%, beating the market by -1.67 pts on average.

EPS surprise beat

Pending

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

13 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.61%, win rate 58.3%, beating the market by +2.77 pts on average.

Continue researching Starwood Property Trust, Inc. with the evidence above.

Continue in Studio ↗

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.