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STX

Seagate Technology Holdings plc Technology As of 2026-07-31 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, premium valuation.

3 active signals
Top-quintile 6-month momentum Filed revenue acceleration EPS surprise beat
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add Seagate Technology Holdings plc to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 20Quality 89Growth 89Momentum 87Risk / liquidity 60

Is Seagate Technology Holdings plc a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is top-tier. Operating margin ranks above roughly 86% of the liquid US common-stock universe. TTM ROE is about 146.9%.

  • Valuation is expensive. TTM P/E is in the 92th percentile, above most peers.

  • Recent volatility is elevated. 60-day annualized volatility is in the 79th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $4,489.1M.

  • Signals are active now. Top-quintile 6-month momentum, Filed revenue acceleration, EPS surprise beat currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Active · now 96.42553191489361%

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

20 historical occurrences (since 2016-10-12)
Average forward return after Top-quintile 6-month momentum。20-day: Win 50%, Sample 20, Median +2.06%, Excess +3.64%, Beat mkt rate 55%；60-day: Win 55%, Sample 20, Median +4.3%, Excess +1.75%, Beat mkt rate 40%；120-day: Win 55%, Sample 20, Median +4.38%, Excess +4.35%, Beat mkt rate 45%

120 days after: historical avg +8.2%

20-day +4.62%
60-day +5.96%
120-day +8.2%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
55%
55%
Sample
20
20
20
Median
+2.06%
+4.3%
+4.38%
Excess
+3.64%
+1.75%
+4.35%
Beat mkt rate
55%
40%
45%

Over 20 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 8.2%, beat the market by 4.35 pts; win rate 55%.

Filed revenue acceleration

Active · now 38.86429552740041%

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

3 historical occurrences (since 2025-01-24)

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 11.960784313725497%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

30 historical occurrences (since 2015-07-31)
Average forward return after EPS surprise beat。20-day: Win 82.1%, Sample 28, Median +7.87%, Excess +6.56%, Beat mkt rate 71.4%；60-day: Win 67.9%, Sample 28, Median +6.12%, Excess +9.77%, Beat mkt rate 57.1%；120-day: Win 75%, Sample 28, Median +15.72%, Excess +24.63%, Beat mkt rate 60.7%

120 days after: historical avg +32.25%

20-day +7.92%
60-day +13.2%
120-day +32.25%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
82.1%
67.9%
75%
Sample
28
28
28
Median
+7.87%
+6.12%
+15.72%
Excess
+6.56%
+9.77%
+24.63%
Beat mkt rate
71.4%
57.1%
60.7%

Over 28 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 32.25%, beat the market by 24.63 pts; win rate 75%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 295+61.2% +69.3% 88.1% +25.4%
20-40 133+59.7% +61.8% 90.2% +22.9%
40-60 314+24.5% +19.8% 61.5% +9.4%
60-80 240+150.1% -12.7% 40% +148%
80-100 You are here159+220.4% +162.6% 100% +204.6%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 61.68, placing it in the 93.0 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+21.7%
Win rate 56.4% Excess +10.4%
163d
+26.6%
Win rate 86.9% Excess +7.5%
229d
Now
+72.2%
Win rate 64% Excess +70.1%
350d
60-day momentum down
+34.6%
Win rate 79.7% Excess +12.9%
207d
+6.8%
Win rate 39.5% Excess +7.2%
215d
+55.5%
Win rate 81.4% Excess +49.3%
97d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 350 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 72.2%, win rate 64%, beat the market by 70.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 97,878 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.26%, a 58.3% positive-return rate, and +2.90 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

27 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.76%, win rate 70.4%, beating the market by +9.82 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.