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TSCO Tractor Supply Company

Consumer Cyclical

33.94 Close 10/30
Since 2024-12-02 -39.4%
Open
34.49
High
34.55
Low
33.51
Prev close
33.65
Volume
10.8M
Amplitude
3.09%
P/E
18.2
P/B
6.7
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+3.5%
52W 28.36 56.94

Is Tractor Supply Company a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Quality: Good, Risk / liquidity: Good; Valuation: Pricey.

Valuation Pricey Free-cash-flow yield is Good, but Price / book is Expensive.
TTM P/E 18.25 49th percentile Fair
Price / book 6.65 87th percentile Expensive
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 1.82 54th percentile Good
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good ROE, TTM is Top, but FCF margin, TTM is Average.
ROE, TTM (%) 36.73 89th percentile Top
Operating margin, TTM (%) 8.59 53th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 2.02 44th percentile Average
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Neutral Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Good, but Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Average.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 3.53 44th percentile Average
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) -10.58 50th percentile Good
Momentum Neutral 60-day return is Good, but 240-day return is Average.
60-day return (%) 0.23 68th percentile Good
240-day return (%) -37.32 23th percentile Average
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 507,299,410 97th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 33.04 38th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) today

1 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Tractor Supply Company to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Tractor Supply Company across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like Tractor Supply Company

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) peers and tracking

Watchlist

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Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 5.29%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
17 historical occurrences (since 2015-01-28)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 14, Median +0.66%, Excess -0.14%, Beat mkt rate 50%

60-day: Win 64.3%, Sample 14, Median +3.78%, Excess +1.49%, Beat mkt rate 64.3%

120-day: Win 64.3%, Sample 14, Median +4.57%, Excess +0.75%, Beat mkt rate 64.3%

120 days after: historical avg +4.7%

20-day -0.18%
60-day +3.18%
120-day +4.7%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.1%
64.3%
64.3%
Sample
14
14
14
Median
+0.66%
+3.78%
+4.57%
Excess
-0.14%
+1.49%
+0.75%
Beat mkt rate
50%
64.3%
64.3%

Over 14 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 4.7%, beat the market by 0.75 pts; win rate 64.3%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here262-9.6% -29% 22.1% -32.2%
20-40 156+38.8% +33.8% 100% +14.7%
40-60 257+22.2% +20.1% 91.1% +4%
60-80 262+19.4% +11.8% 85.5% +2%
80-100 502+10.3% +4.1% 62.2% +4.1%

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 18.25, placing it in the 5.0 own-history percentile, inside the 0-20 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
Now
-6.9%
Win rate 27.1% Excess -15%
107d
+14.3%
Win rate 76.8% Excess +3.7%
198d
+5.4%
Win rate 64.5% Excess -0.1%
611d
60-day momentum down
+6%
Win rate 62.3% Excess -7%
345d
+11.7%
Win rate 76.3% Excess +5.5%
190d
+1.6%
Win rate 58.1% Excess +0.3%
86d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 107 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 6.9%, win rate 27.1%, lagged the market by 15%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

21 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.67%, win rate 47.6%, beating the market by -0.86 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

19 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.64%, win rate 57.9%, beating the market by +1.03 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

5 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.65%, win rate 40%, beating the market by -4.29 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.