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UMBF UMB Financial Corporation

Financial Services

137.46 +2.98 +2.22% Close 11/2
Since 2024-12-02 +10.9%
Open
135.09
High
139.35
Low
134.96
Prev close
134.47
Volume
810.4K
Amplitude
3.26%
P/E
10.2
P/B
1.3
Revenue YoY (TTM)
+3.9%
52W 103.38 153.32

Is UMB Financial Corporation a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Valuation: Fair, Quality: Good, Growth: Good, Momentum: Good, Risk / liquidity: Strong.

Valuation Fair Free-cash-flow yield is Top; Price / book is Fair.
TTM P/E 10.18 26th percentile Fair
Price / book 1.3 43th percentile Fair
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 11.44 84th percentile Top
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good FCF margin, TTM is Top; ROE, TTM is Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 13.15 73th percentile Good
Operating margin, TTM (%) 26.55 80th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 27.85 84th percentile Top
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Good Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Good, but Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Average.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) 3.92 45th percentile Average
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 49.6 77th percentile Good
Momentum Good 240-day return is Good, but 60-day return is Average.
60-day return (%) -7.01 49th percentile Average
240-day return (%) 25.83 75th percentile Good
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Strong 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 88,224,637 86th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 20.07 22th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) today

1 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From UMB Financial Corporation to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of UMB Financial Corporation across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like UMB Financial Corporation

UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) peers and tracking

Watchlist

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add UMB Financial Corporation to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 10.56%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
28 historical occurrences (since 2015-04-28)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 61.5%, Sample 26, Median +3.2%, Excess +3.14%, Beat mkt rate 53.8%

60-day: Win 57.7%, Sample 26, Median +0.66%, Excess +1.39%, Beat mkt rate 46.2%

120-day: Win 64%, Sample 25, Median +4.67%, Excess +2.57%, Beat mkt rate 52%

120 days after: historical avg +9.09%

20-day +4.89%
60-day +4.44%
120-day +9.09%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61.5%
57.7%
64%
Sample
26
26
25
Median
+3.2%
+0.66%
+4.67%
Excess
+3.14%
+1.39%
+2.57%
Beat mkt rate
53.8%
46.2%
52%

Over 25 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 9.09%, beat the market by 2.57 pts; win rate 64%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here683+20.6% +1.7% 53.1% +5.6%
20-40 327+23.9% +25.1% 70.9% +11.7%
40-60 291+20.2% +18.4% 99.3% +3.6%
60-80 129+25.9% +31.8% 72.9% +6.1%
80-100 5Insufficient data

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 10.18, placing it in the 12.9 own-history percentile, inside the 0-20 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+12.5%
Win rate 64.7% Excess +5.3%
445d
+9.9%
Win rate 66.8% Excess +2.7%
370d
+17.3%
Win rate 76.8% Excess +7.1%
95d
60-day momentum down
Now
+10.3%
Win rate 62.3% Excess +2%
507d
+10%
Win rate 79% Excess +1.9%
138d
Insufficient data
(0d)

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum down”: across 507 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 10.3%, win rate 62.3%, beat the market by 2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

17 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.93%, win rate 58.8%, beating the market by +0.39 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

16 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.25%, win rate 56.2%, beating the market by +1.23 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

13 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.87%, win rate 61.5%, beating the market by -2.95 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.