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UMBF

UMB Financial Corporation Financial Services As of 2026-07-31 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
52-week adjusted-price high EPS surprise beat
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add UMB Financial Corporation to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 54Quality 70Growth 69Momentum 71Risk / liquidity 81

Is UMB Financial Corporation a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Quality is above average. Operating margin sits near the 67th percentile. TTM ROE is about 8.3%.

  • Valuation is middle-of-pack. TTM P/E is near the 70th percentile.

  • Recent volatility is comparatively low. 60-day annualized volatility is in the 23th percentile. Average 20-day dollar volume is about $95.9M.

  • Signals are active now. 52-week adjusted-price high, EPS surprise beat currently holds; the tables below show what followed in this stock’s own history.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

52-week adjusted-price high

Active

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

17 historical occurrences (since 2017-02-21)
Average forward return after 52-week adjusted-price high。20-day: Win 52.9%, Sample 17, Median +0.68%, Excess +1.1%, Beat mkt rate 47.1%；60-day: Win 50%, Sample 16, Median -0.48%, Excess -1.15%, Beat mkt rate 37.5%；120-day: Win 56.2%, Sample 16, Median +1.25%, Excess -1.1%, Beat mkt rate 43.8%

120 days after: historical avg +2.09%

20-day +1.54%
60-day +3.59%
120-day +2.09%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
52.9%
50%
56.2%
Sample
17
16
16
Median
+0.68%
-0.48%
+1.25%
Excess
+1.1%
-1.15%
-1.1%
Beat mkt rate
47.1%
37.5%
43.8%

Over 16 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 2.09%, lagged the market by 1.1 pts; win rate 56.2%.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 14.423076923076913%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

27 historical occurrences (since 2015-04-28)
Average forward return after EPS surprise beat。20-day: Win 64%, Sample 25, Median +3.26%, Excess +3.44%, Beat mkt rate 56%；60-day: Win 56%, Sample 25, Median +0.31%, Excess +1.52%, Beat mkt rate 48%；120-day: Win 58.3%, Sample 24, Median +6.57%, Excess +1.9%, Beat mkt rate 54.2%

120 days after: historical avg +8.42%

20-day +5.09%
60-day +4.5%
120-day +8.42%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
64%
56%
58.3%
Sample
25
25
24
Median
+3.26%
+0.31%
+6.57%
Excess
+3.44%
+1.52%
+1.9%
Beat mkt rate
56%
48%
54.2%

Over 24 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 8.42%, beat the market by 1.9 pts; win rate 58.3%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 683+18.4% +0.3% 50.5% +3.5%
20-40 326+22% +23.1% 70.9% +9.7%
40-60 235+18.5% +15.8% 97% +1.7%
60-80 122+24.5% +35.2% 69.7% +4.6%
80-100 You are here5Insufficient data

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 17.25, placing it in the 86.9 own-history percentile, inside the 80-100 bucket.

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+11.1%
Win rate 63.6% Excess +4%
434d
+8.7%
Win rate 63.2% Excess +1.8%
345d
Now
+16.7%
Win rate 76.1% Excess +6.5%
92d
60-day momentum down
+9.9%
Win rate 61.4% Excess +1.4%
511d
+6.7%
Win rate 69.7% Excess +0.1%
109d
Insufficient data
(0d)

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top third) × 60-day momentum up”: across 92 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 16.7%, win rate 76.1%, beat the market by 6.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 97,878 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.26%, a 58.3% positive-return rate, and +2.90 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

17 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.29%, win rate 52.9%, beating the market by +0.71 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

13 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.43%, win rate 61.5%, beating the market by -3.38 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.