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VLY Valley National Bancorp

Financial Services

14.14 Close 10/30
Since 2024-12-02 +45.3%
Open
14.34
High
14.38
Low
14.10
Prev close
14.28
Volume
5.8M
Amplitude
1.96%
P/E
11.0
P/B
1.0
Revenue YoY (TTM)
-13.3%
52W 10.34 15.20

Is Valley National Bancorp a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

As of 2026-10-30

Valuation: Fair, Quality: Good, Momentum: Good, Risk / liquidity: Good.

Valuation Fair Free-cash-flow yield is Good; Price / book is Fair.
TTM P/E 11.05 29th percentile Fair
Price / book 0.99 31th percentile Fair
Free-cash-flow yield (%) 7.11 74th percentile Good
US Stock Backtest in Python: Price-to-Book Ratio StrategyQuality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Quality Good All 3 indicators are Good.
ROE, TTM (%) 9.33 63th percentile Good
Operating margin, TTM (%) 15.38 65th percentile Good
FCF margin, TTM (%) 18.35 74th percentile Good
Quality Factor Investing: A US Quality Value Backtest
Growth Neutral Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY is Good, but Revenue growth, TTM YoY is Lagging.
Revenue growth, TTM YoY (%) -13.28 19th percentile Lagging
Diluted EPS growth, TTM YoY (%) 45.45 76th percentile Good
Momentum Good 240-day return is Top; 60-day return is Good.
60-day return (%) -1.5 63th percentile Good
240-day return (%) 35.34 81th percentile Top
Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest
Risk / liquidity Good 20-day dollar volume is Top; 60-day annualized volatility is Good.
20-day dollar volume 90,197,788 86th percentile Top
60-day annualized volatility (%) 23.89 26th percentile Good
Factor Investing Explained: 10 Classic Factors in US Stocks

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) today

1 quant signals active · As of 2026-10-30

Win rate and excess are historical post-trigger stats vs the market. Click a signal for its full definition and samples; history does not predict future results.

FinLab Studio

From Valley National Bancorp to every stock like it

AI finds several complementary traits of Valley National Bancorp across different dimensions, combines them into a multifactor strategy, and backtests it against the market.

Screen stocks like Valley National Bancorp

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) peers and tracking

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Valley National Bancorp (VLY) quant signal backtests

Signals active now

Each active condition is tested against this stock’s own history and benchmarked versus the S&P 500.

EPS surprise beat

Active · now 8.53%

Reported EPS beat consensus estimate by at least 5%; event date is the earnings-surprise timestamp.

PEAD: Post-Earnings Announcement Drift Backtest
8 historical occurrences (since 2017-01-25)

Average forward return after EPS surprise beat

20-day: Win 42.9%, Sample 7, Median -0.47%, Excess 0%, Beat mkt rate 71.4%

60-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 7, Median +0.9%, Excess +3.17%, Beat mkt rate 71.4%

120-day: Win 71.4%, Sample 7, Median +4.01%, Excess +5.68%, Beat mkt rate 57.1%

120 days after: historical avg +11.45%

20-day +1.12%
60-day +4.13%
120-day +11.45%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
42.9%
57.1%
71.4%
Sample
7
7
7
Median
-0.47%
+0.9%
+4.01%
Excess
0%
+3.17%
+5.68%
Beat mkt rate
71.4%
71.4%
57.1%

Over 7 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 11.45%, beat the market by 5.68 pts; win rate 71.4%.

Valuation regime and forward returns

Daily TTM P/E is converted into an expanding own-history percentile, then grouped into five valuation regimes. Forward returns use adjusted prices over the next 240 trading days.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 600+25.2% +14.4% 63.7% +1.2%
20-40 You are here289-8.4% -14.2% 19.7% -11.5%
40-60 332+16.8% +16.6% 60.5% +7.8%
60-80 196+35.6% +32.8% 100% +19%
80-100 10Insufficient data

Quarterly EPS is aligned by SEC filing date before it is forward-filled to daily prices. The expanding percentile uses only information available up to each day.

Current TTM P/E is about 11.05, placing it in the 32.0 own-history percentile, inside the 20-40 bucket.

More history: Valuation × momentum analogs, Market-wide momentum baseline, Signals not active now

Valuation × momentum analogs

Each historical day is grouped by own-history P/E tercile and 60-day momentum direction, then tested for the next 120-trading-day adjusted return.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom third)
Middle
Expensive (own-history top third)
60-day momentum up
+5.1%
Win rate 42.5% Excess -7.7%
247d
+8.1%
Win rate 59.6% Excess +2.8%
495d
+6.6%
Win rate 59% Excess +2.8%
134d
60-day momentum down
Now
+13.4%
Win rate 63.7% Excess +4.5%
493d
+12.9%
Win rate 83.8% Excess +3.7%
160d
Insufficient data
(18d)

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom third) × 60-day momentum down”: across 493 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 13.4%, win rate 63.7%, beat the market by 4.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Market-wide momentum baseline

Across 99,493 liquid US common-stock samples, top-quintile 6-month momentum was followed by an average 60-trading-day return of +6.42%, a 58.4% positive-return rate, and +3.08 percentage points of average excess return versus the S&P 500.

Baseline: weekly samples since 2016 where a liquid US common stock ranked in the top quintile by 126-trading-day momentum. Forward return is 60 trading days; excess return is versus S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Signals not active now

Inactive signals still show the stock-specific historical forward-return distribution for context.

52-week adjusted-price high

Pending

Adjusted close first reaches a 252-trading-day high; repeated hits within 20 days count once.

16 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.35%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -0.86 pts on average.

Top-quintile 6-month momentum

Pending

The stock ranks in the top 20% of the liquid US common-stock universe by 126-day adjusted return.

Momentum Trading Strategy: A 12-1 Momentum Backtest

14 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.62%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -4.19 pts on average.

Filed revenue acceleration

Pending

TTM revenue growth is at least 10% and improved versus the prior filed quarter; event date is the SEC filing date.

9 times historically; 60-day forward avg -3.46%, win rate 44.4%, beating the market by -4.82 pts on average.

Method and limits

  • Returns use us_price:adj_close, adjusted for splits and dividends where available.
  • Excess returns use world_index:^GSPC as the S&P 500 benchmark proxy.
  • Quarterly fundamentals are aligned to SEC filing dates before daily valuation studies.
  • The promoted universe starts from active NYSE/NASDAQ common stocks, then applies price and dollar-volume gates.
  • Snapshot-only tables such as analyst consensus, DCF, us_ratios, and us_key_metrics are intentionally excluded from historical evidence.
  • Overlapping event windows are descriptive distributions, not independent samples.

This page is for historical data analysis and education only. It is not investment advice. Backtests and historical return distributions do not predict future performance; evaluate risk independently before trading.