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1342

八貫 Other As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 八貫 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 52Quality 88Growth 78Momentum 76Chips 76

Is 八貫 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~84% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 7.2%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 43th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 84th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 4.8% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 37.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.29
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 holds 809 lots
  • sellers have 828 lots left, ~342 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +20% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 809 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 富邦證券 peaked at 696 lots, has sold 71%, 199 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -2.82pp, mid holders +1, retail +1.35pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -161 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣摩根士丹利凱基-台北新加坡商瑞銀摩根大通新光美林
Distributing
富邦證券美商高盛港商野村富邦-板橋北城證券元大-六合
Desks
own scale
凱基中國信託凱基-和平合庫-台中
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +809
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-台北 +507
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +452
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +349
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 新光 +233
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美林 +222
    sold 23%

Distributing

  • 富邦證券 199 left
    sold 71%· paused recently
  • 美商高盛 335 left
    sold 47%· ~28 sessions to clear
  • 港商野村 171 left
    sold 26%· ~342 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-板橋 74 left
    sold 27%· ~26 sessions to clear
  • 北城證券 56 left
    sold 26%· paused recently
  • 元大-六合 28 left
    sold 62%· ~25 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 凱基 -2,196
    unclassified
  • 中國信託 -627
    unclassified
  • 凱基-和平 -191
    unclassified
  • 合庫-台中 -145
    unclassified
Still selling 828 lots ~342 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,698 absorbed / -366 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

9 historical occurrences (since 2021-12-07)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 62.5%, Sample 8, Median +1.54%, Excess +3.86%, Beat mkt rate 62.5%；60-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 7, Median +2.33%, Excess +11.35%, Beat mkt rate 57.1%；120-day: Win 71.4%, Sample 7, Median +25.38%, Excess +26.79%, Beat mkt rate 71.4%

120 days after: historical avg +32%

20-day +5.19%
60-day +13.98%
120-day +32%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
62.5%
57.1%
71.4%
Sample
8
7
7
Median
+1.54%
+2.33%
+25.38%
Excess
+3.86%
+11.35%
+26.79%
Beat mkt rate
62.5%
57.1%
71.4%

Over 7 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 32%, beat the market by 26.79 pts; win rate 71.4%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 37.2%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

32 historical occurrences (since 2020-11-24)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 48%, Sample 25, Median -0.11%, Excess -0.64%, Beat mkt rate 44%；60-day: Win 43.5%, Sample 23, Median -1.45%, Excess +1.59%, Beat mkt rate 56.5%；120-day: Win 59.1%, Sample 22, Median +4.01%, Excess +6.81%, Beat mkt rate 54.5%

120 days after: historical avg +10.14%

20-day +0.93%
60-day +2.77%
120-day +10.14%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
48%
43.5%
59.1%
Sample
25
23
22
Median
-0.11%
-1.45%
+4.01%
Excess
-0.64%
+1.59%
+6.81%
Beat mkt rate
44%
56.5%
54.5%

Over 22 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 10.14%, beat the market by 6.81 pts; win rate 59.1%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 1480% -2.8% 37.8% -36.6%
20-40 112-5.1% -8.5% 26.8% -37.2%
40-60 90-10.2% -10.1% 0% -38.5%
60-80 10Insufficient data
80-100 You are here0Insufficient data

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 19.58, at the 83.8th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-2.2%
Win rate 43.1% Excess -18.7%
72d
-12.9%
Win rate 9.6% Excess -22.7%
135d
Now
Insufficient data
(0d)
60-day momentum down
+3.8%
Win rate 50.9% Excess -14.8%
212d
+13.2%
Win rate 88.5% Excess -28.6%
61d
Insufficient data
(0d)

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

19 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.49%, win rate 52.9%, beating the market by +1.36 pts on average.

What does 八貫 do? Company profile

塑膠工業(TPU機能性布料加工;部分資訊平台歸類為「其他」) 台灣證券交易所(上市)

Overview

八貫股份有限公司(英文簡稱CCI Yilan,公司英文名Cathay Consolidated, Inc.),成立於1982年(民國71年)6月,原為有限公司,2007年12月(民國96年)改制為股份有限公司,2020年11月24日於台灣證券交易所掛牌上市。總部與生產基地位於宜蘭縣冬山鄉德興四路6號。實收資本額約新台幣7.8億元(股本約7.9億元)。董事長兼總經理為劉宗熹(此一人事資訊僅單一來源,信心度中等)。公司早期(1982年起)從事進出口貿易,2008年後策略轉型為製造業,專注以TPU(熱塑性聚氨酯)機能性皮布料替代傳統PVC製品。員工人數、主要股東與法人持股明細未能於本次研究中取得可靠數據。

Business

主營TPU(熱塑性聚氨酯彈性體)機能性皮布料及成品組件之二次、三次加工製造與銷售。依產品型態分為兩大事業群:(1)皮布料事業群(約佔營收65%),生產機能性皮布料及TPU薄膜;(2)成品組件事業群(約佔35%),運用自家布料/薄膜製作成品與半成品。若依終端市場別(2023上半年概況)約為:戶外產品約54%、醫療產品約21%、航太救生約13%、工業及軍工約12%(此比重隨期間與訂單而變動)。產品終端應用涵蓋運動鞋材、3C電子、汽車內飾、電纜、露營睡墊與枕頭、防水收納/蓄水袋、潛水浮力裝置、救生衣/救生筏、加護病床與居家長照床墊、醫療管材、飛機逃生滑梯,以及軍工防彈背心材料、軍用油箱等。商業模式為承接國際品牌客戶之利基型、客製化機能材料與組件代工(訴求高性能、防水透濕、環保替代PVC)。

Outlook 2025–2028

2024年全年營收約25.1億元(12月單月創高約2.8億元);市場與分析文章估2025年營收約27.8億元、EPS約7.13元(年增約11.76%,屬分析師預估非公司正式財測)。2026年1~5月累計營收約16.04億元、年增約26.65%,Q1 EPS約2.08元,毛利率約27%、營益率約20%。三大成長動能:(1)軍工——新型防彈背心完成認證並量產出貨,標案能見度延伸至2025年中,2024年軍工單季一度年增約302%;(2)醫療——與Hillrom、Arjo、Stryker等合作,聚焦高附加價值醫療床墊與居家照護,估年增約20%;(3)航太救生——供應鏈緩解、輕量化逃生滑梯放量,市佔由約20%提升至30~35%。產能方面已完成德興一路二期擴廠(新增約23,701平方米),醫療床墊/露營睡墊月產能增至約35,000件(+34.6%)、醫療管材月產能增至約350,000件(+45.8%),新增約74台高週波機等設備;並導入更輕耐用之TPU材料與TPU噴霧新技術。潛在風險:上游原料供應商高度集中(BASF、Lubrizol、Covestro)、戶外消費受景氣循環影響、無人機等新型戰爭型態可能改變軍工需求結構、匯率波動、終端客戶庫存調整。2027~2028年缺乏明確公開財測,本欄2025年後數字多屬分析估算,請審慎參考。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 巴斯夫 BASF TPU原料(熱塑性聚氨酯樹脂)主要供應商,德國法蘭克福上市,非台股掛牌
  • 路博潤 Lubrizol TPU原料供應商,美國公司(波克夏海瑟威子公司),非台股掛牌
  • 科思創 Covestro TPU原料供應商,德國上市,非台股掛牌
Downstream
  • Hillrom / Baxter 醫療設備客戶(加護病床等),美國,非台股掛牌
  • Arjo 醫療照護設備客戶,瑞典上市,非台股掛牌
  • Stryker 醫療設備客戶,美國紐約證交所上市,非台股掛牌
  • YETI 戶外用品品牌客戶,美國上市,非台股掛牌
  • Patagonia 戶外服飾/裝備品牌客戶,美國未上市,非台股掛牌
  • Cascade Designs / Sea to Summit / Big Agnes / NEMO / Aqua Lung 戶外睡墊、防水裝備、潛水/救生用品品牌客戶,多為國外公司,非台股掛牌
  • Safran 航太救生客戶(逃生滑梯/救生設備),法國上市,非台股掛牌
  • Collins Aerospace (RTX) 航太救生客戶,美國上市(RTX集團),非台股掛牌
  • Viking Life-Saving / EAM Worldwide 航太與海事救生設備客戶,國外公司,非台股掛牌

Competitors

  • 鼎基 6585 台股上市,TPU一條龍專業廠,全球前三大TPU薄膜供應商,與八貫產品/終端應用高度重疊
  • 三芳 1307 台股上市,PU/TPU合成皮與貼合加工廠,鞋材、醫療、汽車等利基應用與八貫部分重疊
  • 國際機能布料/TPU薄膜貼合同業 歐美日等地之機能性薄膜與層壓貼合業者(如Sympatex、各TPU薄膜廠)為潛在國際競爭者,非台股掛牌
Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.