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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1440 南紡. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1440
1440
quality needs a look, discounted valuation, no active signal today.
Is 南紡 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 21th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -0.3%.
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Valuation is low.PE is in the 4th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 5th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 0.5% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -1% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 兆豐-復興 has accumulated 4,423 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
- Main distributor 富邦-南京 peaked at 2,292 lots, has sold 34%, 1,516 left, ~20 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.16pp, mid holders -1, retail +0.16pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -7,525 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 兆豐-復興 +4,423
- 康和-台南 +927
- 永豐金-竹科 +728
- 台新-成功 +701
- 玉山-台南 +692
- 台新-左楠 +615
Distributing
- 富邦-南京 1,516 left
- 富邦-台南 1,114 left
- 美林 377 left
- 中國信託-高雄 509 left
- 凱基-台南 533 left
- 新加坡商瑞銀 252 left
Desks
- 美商高盛 -3,512
- 統一-台南 -2,282
- 台灣摩根士丹利 -2,170
- 凱基-台北 -1,575
Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 You are here | 390 | -15.5% | -18.7% | 15.6% | -31.8% |
| 20-40 | 327 | -1.5% | -4.6% | 36.1% | -28.7% |
| 40-60 | 391 | -0.8% | -4.6% | 37.3% | -22.1% |
| 60-80 | 401 | -3.6% | -6.1% | 36.4% | -11.6% |
| 80-100 | 682 | +33.8% | -5.9% | 41.3% | +16% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 9.7, at the 5.2th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 518 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 4.6%, win rate 27.8%, lagged the market by 11.6%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
16 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.39%, win rate 60%, beating the market by +4.05 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
42 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.8%, win rate 40.5%, beating the market by +0.23 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
71 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.12%, win rate 33.8%, beating the market by -4.3 pts on average.
What does 南紡 do? Company profile
Overview
1440 對應臺南紡織股份有限公司，證券簡稱南紡，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司成立於1955年3月21日，上市日期為1989年10月3日，總部與通訊地址位於臺南市東區中華東路一段398號10樓，營業登記地址為臺南市東區裕農路511號。董事長為侯博明，總經理為江俊謀。實收資本額為新台幣16,568,158,570元。公司揭露員工人數為台灣區811人、越南區2,666人。主要股東名單截至2026年3月31日包括侯博裕持股7.041%、侯博義6.156%、新永興投資股份有限公司5.369%、侯博明3.993%、新復興實業股份有限公司3.470%、啟流投資股份有限公司3.018%、莊英志1.343%、莊英男1.286%、侯吉星1.090%、吳平治1.081%。
Business
南紡核心業務為各種紡織品製造、加工與販賣，合成纖維原料與製品製造販賣，國際貿易與經銷，以及委託營造廠興建住宅、商業大樓出租與出售。主要產品包括棉紗、聚酯棉、聚酯粒、瓶用酯粒、聚酯原絲、加工絲、OE紗與機能性聚酯纖維。公司官網揭露年度營業比重：棉紗營業金額新台幣7,457,424千元、比重38%，用途為織布原料；聚酯棉2,358,321千元、12%，用途為紡紗原料；聚酯粒985,463千元、5%，用途為聚酯絲與聚酯棉原料；瓶用酯粒2,357,670千元、12%，用途為製瓶原料；聚酯原絲1,829,595千元、10%，用途為加工絲原料；加工絲742,431千元、4%，用途為織布原料；其他3,714,308千元、19%；合計19,445,212千元。產品應用涵蓋短纖紡紗、不織布、填充材、假撚加工、針織與平織布、瓶用與包裝材料、機能性與環保再生聚酯。依2026年4月法說整理，2025年營收結構另可概括為化學纖維約43%、紡紗約30%、其他事業含流通約27%；公司屬紡織中上游，交貨對象主要為下游代工廠，最終流向服飾品牌、織布與包材等終端應用。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025年公司策略重點為不追求滿載與營收規模，而以擇優接單、降低低毛利訂單、庫存控管與產品組合優化改善毛利率；2025年營收下滑但毛利率改善，營業虧損收斂。2026年展望偏審慎樂觀，主要動能包括瓶用酯粒需求較具剛性、化纖與紡紗訂單能見度回穩、南紡購物中心既有一二期營運穩定，公司設定購物中心2026年營業額成長約3%至5%。中長期主軸包括：提升環保再生聚酯、機能性聚酯、高階運動與工業設備特殊用材比重；發展回收系統、非石化來源升級材、可降解材料；擴大流通事業與規劃南紡購物中心第三期；推動南紡科技園區TST PARK首期廠辦開發，法說資料指出首期預計2028年中完工、2028年下半年取得使用執照並開始租售，策略約為三成保留出租、七成出售。主要風險為全球紡織與聚酯產能過剩、品牌客戶庫存與下單保守、PTA/EG等石化原料成本與供應波動、價格轉嫁落差、匯率波動、美國關稅與地緣政治使下游品牌或代工廠要求上游分攤成本，以及資產開發進度與租售去化不確定性。
Supply Chain
- 台塑集團 法說整理指出南紡主要原料供應商包含台塑集團；關聯產品為石化與聚酯原料。此為集團層級稱呼，未能確認具體交易法人與台股代號。
- 台灣中油股份有限公司 法說整理指出南紡主要原料供應商包含中油；中油為未上市國營事業，供應關聯為石化原料。
- 棉花供應商 棉紗產品上游為天然棉花與人造纖維原料，公開資料未揭露具體供應商名稱，推估包含國際棉花供應鏈。
- 回收瓶片與環保再生原料供應商 公司機能性產品包含使用回收瓶片為原料的環保再生聚酯；公開資料未揭露具體供應商名稱。
- 下游紡織代工廠 公司法說指出南紡位於產業中上游，主要交貨對象為下游代工廠，最終流向各大品牌；未揭露個別客戶名稱。
- 織布、假撚與加工絲廠 棉紗、聚酯原絲與加工絲的下游用途為織布、DTY假撚或其他紡織加工；公開資料未揭露直接客戶。
- 製瓶與包裝材料業者 瓶用酯粒下游用途為水瓶、油瓶、熱填充、碳酸飲料瓶、板材、包裝材、杯用與膜用等；未揭露直接客戶。
- 南紡流通事業與南紡購物中心 南紡其他事業含流通與購物中心，為公司資產活化與商場經營的重要下游變現平台，非台股上市櫃公司。
Competitors
- 遠東新世紀股份有限公司 1402 台股上市紡織與聚酯一貫廠，涵蓋聚酯、化纖、紡織與資產事業，為南紡在聚酯與紡織鏈的主要同業。
- 新光合成纖維股份有限公司 1409 台股上市化纖與聚酯材料公司，與南紡化纖、聚酯粒、聚酯棉業務具競爭或替代關係。
- 力麗企業股份有限公司 1444 台股上市紡織纖維公司，產品含聚酯加工絲、聚酯粒與相關紡織材料，為化纖同業。
- 集盛實業股份有限公司 1455 台股上市化纖與紡織公司，於尼龍、聚酯加工絲與紡織原料市場與南紡部分產品競爭。
- 福懋興業股份有限公司 1434 台股上市紡織公司，產品偏向工業布、輪胎簾布與布料加工，屬紡織中上游同業。
- 得力實業股份有限公司 1464 台股上市布料與機能性紡織廠，與南紡在紗線、機能性與下游布料應用市場間接競爭。
- 宏遠興業股份有限公司 1460 台股上市紡織廠，從紡紗、織布、染整到成衣具垂直整合，與南紡在紡織鏈部分市場競爭。
- 儒鴻企業股份有限公司 1476 台股上市機能性布料與成衣大廠，屬較下游同業，與南紡在高階運動與機能材料終端供應鏈中存在競合。
- 聚陽實業股份有限公司 1477 台股上市成衣代工大廠，屬下游服飾供應鏈，與南紡非完全同業，但同受品牌訂單、關稅與庫存循環影響。
Sources（16）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.