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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1466 聚隆. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1466
1466
quality needs a look, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 聚隆 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 32th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.3%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 73th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 66th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 8.4% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -3% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 富邦-南員林 has accumulated 2,048 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
- Main distributor 合庫-新竹 peaked at 360 lots, has sold 47%, 190 left, ~317 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.95pp, mid holders +4, retail -3.14pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -965 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 富邦-南員林 +2,048
- 永豐金-新店 +1,417
- 富邦-七賢 +1,066
- 統一-三多 +926
- 富邦證券 +852
- 台新-台南 +637
Distributing
- 合庫-新竹 190 left
- 永豐金-萬盛 163 left
- 群益金鼎 124 left
- 美商高盛 26 left
- 國泰-館前 73 left
- 永豐金-桃園 21 left
Desks
- 中國信託-文心 -736
- 國泰證券 -666
- 凱基-台北 -639
- 福邦證券 -484
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 200 | +0.5% | -15.1% | 38% | -12.9% |
| 20-40 | 61 | +1.1% | -13.3% | 41% | -14.2% |
| 40-60 | 105 | -9.7% | -12.9% | 38.1% | -12.6% |
| 60-80 You are here | 242 | +6.1% | +5.7% | 57% | -5.6% |
| 80-100 | 508 | -6.1% | -5.9% | 33.1% | -78.1% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 31.63, at the 65.8th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
(22d)
Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum down”: across 128 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 19.1%, win rate 96.1%, beat the market by 9.9%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
19 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.16%, win rate 52.6%, beating the market by +0.09 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
56 times historically; 60-day forward avg +12.28%, win rate 51%, beating the market by +9.09 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
37 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.18%, win rate 51.4%, beating the market by +3.29 pts on average.
What does 聚隆 do? Company profile
Overview
1466 對應聚隆纖維股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 1988-07-22，上市日期為 1998-04-04，總部位於彰化縣埔鹽鄉永樂村番金路94號。董事長與總經理均為周文東，發言人為賴明毅。實收資本額約新台幣 1,111,573,200 元，已發行普通股 111,157,320 股，股務代理為凱基證券。2024 年報揭露截至 2025-03-31 集團從業員工約 460 人，2024 年底為 465 人。主要轉投資包含聚泰環保材料科技股份有限公司、聚茂生技股份有限公司、聚盈纖維實業股份有限公司；年報 2025-04-19 資料顯示聚隆對聚泰直接持股 92.625%，綜合持股 94.495%，對聚茂及聚盈均持股 100%。主要股東依 2025-04-19 年報資料包括泓厚投資 6.69%、周紹華 5.97%、賴明毅 5.44%、聖鎧投資 4.53%、尚呈投資 4.46%、施永哲 2.44%、金瑛發機械工業 2.40%、周孟儀 2.39%、周秉儀 2.37%、施羽隆 2.36%。2024 年合併營收為新台幣 2,942,927 仟元，歸屬母公司業主淨利 16,042 仟元，EPS 0.14 元；2025 年全年營收依公開月營收資料約新台幣 2,606,048 仟元，較 2024 年下降約 12.16%。
Business
聚隆為人造纖維製造商，核心產品包括尼龍原絲、尼龍加工絲、聚酯原絲、聚酯加工絲、聚丙加工絲、極超細纖維複合絲、原液染色紗、抗靜電紗、纖維素纖維、終端商品及醫療器材。2024 年營業比重為尼龍加工絲 49.32%、尼龍原絲 18.90%、環保纖維 15.91%、聚酯加工絲 5.63%、醫材類 1.13%、其他 9.11%，因此營收主軸仍是尼龍加工絲與尼龍原絲，但環保纖維已成為重要成長項目。主要用途涵蓋衣料布、雨傘布、工業布、沙發布、針織布、繩索、褲襪、韻律裝、女裝、男襪、織帶、高密度織物、桃皮布、除塵布、長短纖交織布、仿真皮絨布，以及 Lyocell 纖維素長絲用於高級布料面布、裡襯、針織布及工業用布。商業模式以採購尼龍粒、聚酯粒、聚丙烯粒等原料，經抽絲、加工、加撚、延伸、品檢與包裝後銷售給國內外紡織廠、貿易商、品牌商通路及終端應用客戶。公司年報揭露內銷與外銷比重約 5:5，內銷主要銷售國內紡織廠及貿易商，外銷遍及港陸、歐洲、南北美、亞洲、中東、北非等地區；2024 年無單一銷貨客戶達營收 10% 以上。年報揭露 2024 年市場占有率以銷售量估算，聚隆尼龍絲約 5.61%、聚酯絲約 0.09%、加工絲約 4.43%。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025 至 2028 年展望以「高附加價值、機能性、環保永續、品牌通路連結」為主軸。公司 2025 年營業計畫明確提出深耕長期忠實與品牌客戶、開發品牌商通路、整合上中下游、擴大新產品銷售、投入環保永續產品、提升高毛利產品產能、增加色紗與機能性產品產能，並持續增加 RECYCLE、生質材料產品及複合原絲機能性產品。研發方向包含 PCM 水膠囊調溫紗、抗菌纖維素、離子液體製程、高延伸性 Lyocell、彈性尼龍、高吸水性 Lyocell、PET 撥水加 dope dye、回收尼龍紗線高質化與尼龍抗靜電紗；部分項目年報列示預期 2025 年底完成，但實際商業化時程仍需追蹤。成長動能來自全球運動休閒、機能紡織、綠色環保紡織品與品牌永續要求，尤其 Lyocell 纖維素纖維、回收 PET、回收尼龍、生質尼龍與醫療敷料應用可能提升產品組合。2026 至 2028 年屬研究推估：若歐盟紡織品生產者延伸責任制、品牌減碳與循環材料採購趨勢延續，聚隆環保纖維與機能紗線有機會提高占比；但尼龍與聚酯仍面臨中國及東南亞低價競爭、原物料價格波動、電價與工繳成本上升、匯率、關稅、地緣政治及品牌端需求復甦不均等風險。子公司聚泰環保材料科技涉及與奧地利商蘭仁公司之專利排除侵害訴訟，年報揭露律師估計可能最大損失為新台幣 10,000 仟元加利息及訴訟費用，後續訴訟結果可能影響 Lyocell 相關業務不確定性。
Supply Chain
- 尼龍粒供應商（年報以 A0001、A0002 等代號揭露） 主要原料為尼龍粒；2024 年報揭露尼龍粒每月需求量約 1,769 噸，主要供應商因契約約定以代號呈現，未揭露實名與是否台股掛牌。
- 聚酯粒供應商 主要原料之一；2024 年報揭露聚酯粒每月需求量約 167 噸，未具名揭露直接供應商。
- 聚丙烯粒供應商 聚丙加工絲相關原料；2024 年報揭露聚丙烯粒每月需求量約 38 噸，未具名揭露直接供應商。
- 木漿／纖維素原料供應商 Lyocell／溶劑法纖維素纖維製程上游原料；年報產製流程列示木漿投入，但未具名揭露供應商。
- 紡絲、假撚、加工與環保製程設備供應商 提供抽絲、假撚、延伸、溶劑回收、品檢等設備與技術服務；年報未揭露具名供應商。
- 國內紡織廠 聚隆內銷主要客戶類型，採購尼龍原絲、尼龍加工絲、聚酯加工絲、環保纖維等作為織布、針織、染整與成衣供應鏈原料；年報未揭露單一客戶名稱。
- 貿易商 聚隆內銷主要通路之一，協助產品銷售至不同紡織與工業用途客戶；年報未揭露單一客戶名稱。
- 國際品牌商與品牌通路 公司策略為開發品牌商通路、整合上中下游並提高高附加價值產品銷售；未具名揭露品牌客戶。
- 海外紡織與工業用布客戶 外銷區域遍及港陸、歐洲、南北美、亞洲、中東、北非等，終端應用包含服飾、運動機能、工業布、醫材敷料等；2024 年無單一銷貨客戶達營收 10% 以上。
- 醫療與敷料應用客戶 高吸水性 Lyocell、抗菌 Lyocell、醫材類產品的潛在下游；目前屬公司研發與產品開發方向，具名客戶未揭露。
Competitors
- 力鵬 1447 台股上市公司，尼龍粒、尼龍絲與平針織布等業務，屬尼龍纖維鏈同業。
- 集盛 1455 台股上市公司，尼龍粒、尼龍絲、尼龍加工絲與聚酯加工絲等業務，與聚隆在尼龍絲、加工絲市場競爭。
- 東隆興 4401 台股上櫃公司，尼龍加工絲及相關紡織纖維業務，屬尼龍絲／加工絲同業。
- 展頌 台股上櫃公司，尼龍粒、尼龍絲及加工絲相關業務，屬尼龍纖維鏈競爭者。
- 力麗 1444 台股上市公司，聚酯與尼龍相關紡織纖維業務，在聚酯加工絲與機能紗線等領域具競爭關係。
- 宜進 1457 台股上市公司，聚酯加工絲與紡織相關業務，屬聚酯加工絲同業。
- 遠東新 1402 台股上市公司，聚酯、紡織與化纖一貫化大型業者，在聚酯纖維、機能與環保材料市場具競爭關係。
- 台化 1326 台股上市公司，石化與纖維材料大型業者，MoneyDJ 資料列為尼龍絲競爭者之一；也屬化纖上游材料重要業者。
- 三洋紡 1472 台股上市公司，紡織纖維業者，MoneyDJ 資料列為尼龍加工絲競爭者之一。
Sources（10）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.