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1603
steady quality, discounted valuation, no active signal today.
Is 華電 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 47th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.6%.
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Valuation is low.PE is in the 13th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 33th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 0.1% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -20% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 兆豐-城中 has accumulated 358 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
- Main distributor 元大-台北 peaked at 198 lots, has sold 27%, 144 left, ~63 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.17pp, mid holders -7, retail +2.08pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,279 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 兆豐-城中 +358
- 永興 +339
- 華南永昌-板橋 +293
- 新光 +263
- 美好-富順 +227
- 富邦-新竹 +216
Distributing
- 元大-台北 144 left
- 元大-華山 102 left
- 國泰-敦南 72 left
- 元大-永春 70 left
- 臺銀-高雄 34 left
- 兆豐-忠孝 42 left
Desks
- 美林 -1,440
- 美商高盛 -1,428
- 凱基-台北 -1,094
- 摩根大通 -973
Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 444 | +45.5% | +52.4% | 95.9% | +27.7% |
| 20-40 You are here | 682 | +8.5% | +2.8% | 59.2% | -12.4% |
| 40-60 | 544 | +6.9% | +1.7% | 58.3% | -10.9% |
| 60-80 | 749 | +3.8% | -1.1% | 43.9% | -8.7% |
| 80-100 | 508 | +5.9% | +3% | 59.1% | -11.4% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 11.8, at the 33.1th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 427 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 9.2%, win rate 76.8%, lagged the market by 0.6%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
27 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.99%, win rate 40.7%, beating the market by -6.01 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
90 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.36%, win rate 51.2%, beating the market by +0.88 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
42 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.51%, win rate 59.5%, beating the market by -0.06 pts on average.
What does 華電 do? Company profile
Overview
1603 對應證券為華電，發行公司為中華電線電纜股份有限公司，屬台灣證券交易所上市普通股，產業類別為電器電纜。公司成立於 1961/02/23，上市日期為 1968/06/03，總部位於台北市中山區中山北路三段58號4樓，董事長陳亮吟，總經理陳鶴原，發言人蔡旭卿，實收資本額新台幣1,916,880,000元，已發行普通股191,688,000股。依114年報，114年度從業員工合計593人，包含職員224人、技術工208人、普通工161人。主要股東包含宏宇金屬建材9.92%、宏禹興業7.17%、陳鶴原6.66%、國泰世華商業銀行受託陳鶴原信託財產專戶5.84%、台灣倉智企業5.64%、陳岳宏4.90%、陳亮吟4.42%、凱澤企業4.33%、國泰世華商業銀行受託陸文玲信託財產專戶4.17%、國泰世華商業銀行受託陳許麗明信託財產專戶3.54%。主要生產與業務據點包含新莊電力電纜相關產線與新屋鋁門窗、帷幕牆相關產線。
Business
公司為電線電纜與鋁門窗帷幕牆雙主軸營運公司。依114年報，114年度合併營收5,522,406仟元，較113年度成長21.69%；產品營收結構為電線電纜4,175,436仟元、占76%，鋁窗帷幕牆1,337,524仟元、占24%，太陽能光電9,446仟元、占比約0%；114年度內銷100%、外銷0%。電線電纜產品包含架空輸配電用全鋁裸電線、鋼心鋁線、耐熱鋁電線、PVC/PE電力電纜、600V至161kV交連PE電纜、ZTACIR超耐熱鋼心鋁線、345kV交連PE電纜等，主要用於電力輸配、通信傳輸與一般電源線；主要銷售對象為台電公司及承攬台電工程之公司。鋁門窗與帷幕牆包含中華鋁門窗、TOSTEM系列門窗、玻璃/石材/鋁板帷幕牆與客戶OEM/ODM鋁品，主要銷售對象為國內建設公司、營造廠、經銷商與鋁門窗加工廠。114年度主要銷貨客戶為台灣電力2,821,928仟元、占51.10%，太平洋電線電纜877,867仟元、占15.90%；115年第一季主要銷貨客戶包含台灣電力、中麟營造與勝堡村營造工程、太平洋電線電纜。市場占有率年報揭露為25kV鋁風雨線約12%、25kV銅高壓電纜約10%、69kV交連PE電纜約10%、161kV交連PE電纜約10%、AAC/ACSR約30%，鋁門窗與鋁帷幕牆列為市場領導地位。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025年已反映台電電網韌性與電纜訂單成長，114年度營收年增21.69%、稅後淨利年增14.66%、EPS 3.26元。2026年公司規劃重點為參與台電韌性電網計畫、161/345kV線路機電工程、電纜專案標、超耐熱導線架空線路採購標案，並指出114至116年為採購標案高峰；115年度預期銷售數量為鋁門窗及條式帷幕969噸、帷幕牆27,930平方公尺、電線電纜約7,449至7,499噸。技術面，公司持續345kV XLPE電纜專案，已完成BHT 2,400kV衝擊波試驗設備與樣品正負1,425kV試驗，115年規劃進行整軸電纜部分放電、AC耐電壓與熱循環試驗，目標年底提出第一階段申請報告；TACFR 470mm2低損碳纖維鋁導線與超耐熱鋁條為新產品方向，並與太電、大亞合資聯合鋁業、導入日本住友技術發展超耐熱鋁條。2027至2028展望主要建立在公司年報對345kV系統、科學園區/ICT/AI用電與台電電廠直供園區的敘述：345kV 2000mm2地下電纜逐步取代161kV 2000mm2以提升輸電容量，年報明確提及預計2028年會有更多345kV電纜需求。鋁門窗端則持續推廣日本TOSTEM高性能鋁門窗、與LIXIL共同開發高水密性能1500pa鋁窗、研發無障礙鋁門窗、強化帷幕牆生產效率並爭取豪宅與辦公大樓訂單。主要風險包括台電預算與虧損對韌性電網執行進度的影響、國內施工工班不足、料工合一後由電纜廠承擔丈量餘尺與施工整合風險、韓國LS等外商低價競爭、鋁門窗受房地產景氣與政府打房政策影響、電價/碳費/原物料上漲壓縮毛利，以及利率與匯率波動。
Supply Chain
- GLENCORE INTERNATIONAL AG 114年度第一大主要供應商，進貨1,094,713仟元、占進貨淨額27.57%；非台股掛牌，主要關聯為金屬原料供應。
- 太平洋電線電纜股份有限公司 114年度主要供應商，進貨741,154仟元、占18.67%；同時亦為銷貨客戶與電纜同業。
- SUMITOMO ELECTRIC ASIA LTD. 113年度主要供應商之一，進貨306,967仟元、占10.33%；非台股掛牌。
- 東京製鋼 TACFR 470mm2低損碳纖維鋁導線研發合作對象，日本公司，非台股掛牌。
- 日本住友相關技術方 聯合鋁業超耐熱鋁條生產與熱處理技術合作來源；非台股掛牌。
- 鋁合金錠、門鎖窗扣、五金配件、玻璃、石材及表面處理供應商 鋁門窗與帷幕牆上游；年報未逐一揭露全部公司名稱，鋁合金錠多自國外進口。
- 台灣電力股份有限公司 最大銷貨客戶，114年度銷貨2,821,928仟元、占51.10%；國營未上市公司，主要採購輸配電電線電纜、超耐熱導線與相關工程材料。
- 太平洋電線電纜股份有限公司 114年度第二大銷貨客戶，銷貨877,867仟元、占15.90%；上市電纜同業，亦為華電供應商。
- 中麟營造、勝堡村營造工程股份有限公司 115年第一季主要銷貨客戶之一，合計銷貨179,400仟元、占13.75%；營造工程客戶，未確認為台股上市櫃。
- 建設公司、營造廠、建築業、鋁門窗經銷商與加工廠 鋁門窗、帷幕牆下游客戶與通路，應用於住宅、商辦、廠房、醫院、學校大樓等建築物。
- 台灣積體電路製造股份有限公司 2330 非年報揭露直接客戶；作為科學園區與AI/ICT高用電需求終端代表，帶動台電345kV直供與電網升級需求。
Competitors
- 太平洋電線電纜股份有限公司 電線電纜同業；年報列為鋁架空線與超耐熱導線完整供應產品廠商之一，也是華電供應商與客戶。
- 合機電線電纜股份有限公司 1618 電線電纜同業；年報列為鋁架空線實際生產廠商之一。
- 大亞電線電纜股份有限公司 1609 電線電纜同業；年報列為115年起超耐熱導線完整供應產品廠商之一，亦與華電、太電合資聯合鋁業。
- 華新麗華股份有限公司 1605 電線電纜與金屬材料同業；在中高壓電纜與電力電纜市場具競爭關係。
- 宏泰電工股份有限公司 1612 電線電纜同業；在電力電纜、銅線與相關線纜產品市場具競爭關係。
- LS Cable & System 韓國電纜競爭者，非台股掛牌；年報提及韓國LS電纜及其低價競爭對超耐熱導線獲利造成壓力。
- YKK AP台灣相關業者 鋁門窗與建材系統競爭者，非台股掛牌；此為鋁門窗市場競爭推估，年報僅概括提及日系品牌介入市場，未逐名列示。
Sources（7）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.