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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1788 杏昌. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1788
1788
steady quality, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 杏昌 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 66th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.4%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 26th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 28th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.5% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -4% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 土銀-南港 has accumulated 44 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 凱基-文心 peaked at 36 lots, has sold 86%, 5 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.01pp, mid holders +0, retail -0.56pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -97 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 土銀-南港 +44
- 玉山-板橋 +43
- 富邦-仁愛 +41
- 第一金-華江 +39
- 富邦-陽明 +37
- 台灣企銀-台中 +34
Distributing
- 凱基-文心 5 left
- 台灣摩根士丹利 16 left
- 國票-南京 2 left
- 華南永昌-台中 13 left
- 永豐金-台中 2 left
- 永豐金-板新 6 left
Desks
- 第一金-中山 -289
- 元大-新莊 -126
- 國泰-敦南 -86
- 國泰-高雄 -72
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 668 | +11% | +10% | 98.8% | +1.8% |
| 20-40 You are here | 673 | +13.6% | +12% | 94.4% | +2.6% |
| 40-60 | 810 | +10.8% | +10% | 85.4% | -8.1% |
| 60-80 | 563 | +5.8% | +4.7% | 88.5% | -13.3% |
| 80-100 | 327 | +2.7% | +3.9% | 68.5% | -29.7% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 15.02, at the 28.1th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 760 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 8%, win rate 88.7%, beat the market by 2.4%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
34 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.2%, win rate 73.5%, beating the market by +2.56 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
11 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.58%, win rate 72.7%, beating the market by -1.33 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
40 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.04%, win rate 74.4%, beating the market by -1.61 pts on average.
What does 杏昌 do? Company profile
Overview
杏昌生技股份有限公司為台灣上櫃普通股,股票代號1788,英文全名 Hi-Clearance Inc.。公司成立於1989/02/13,2009/07/20上櫃,總部位於新北市三重區重新路5段609巷2號8樓之2。董事長為李忠良,總經理為陳國師,發言人為李映芬。實收資本額約新台幣445,209,710元,已發行普通股44,520,971股,無特別股。公開資料顯示2024年年報員工合計約319人;104與台灣就業通等徵才資料列示員工約300人,兩者口徑可能不同。主要股東與董監持股包括杏昌投資股份有限公司約6,519,991股、智新投資股份有限公司約3,531,994股、高林實業股份有限公司約2,385,536股、江秉勳約1,343,689股、艾立世股份有限公司約942,682股等;董監與法人代表於2025年股東常會改選後仍以杏昌投資、高林實業、智新投資等法人為核心。公司定位為專業醫療通路商,早期由代理日本TORAY血液透析產品起家,後續擴展至多品牌、多科別醫療器材、耗材、藥品與醫務管理服務。
Business
杏昌核心商業模式是代理、進口、銷售與維修醫療器材、耗材、生化試劑及西藥,並透過子公司或轉投資延伸至洗腎中心規劃管理、呼吸睡眠照護、牙材與醫療服務。主要產品線包括血液透析相關設備與耗材(洗腎機、人工腎臟、血液迴路管、透析液、穿刺針、紅血球生成素、生理食鹽水、消毒液、水處理與相關耗材)、營養產品、牙科材料與植牙材料、醫用導管與心血管/肝癌治療材料、呼吸與睡眠產品、急救麻醉設備、氣道管理耗材、外科設備、整形外科材料及居家保健產品。血液透析是營收主軸,公開報導指出2024年產品比重中,人工腎臟與迴路管類約34.1%,紅血球生成素與藥水類約30.4%,其他約23.9%,其餘分類未完整揭露;MoneyDJ資料亦指出2024年內銷比重約99%,血液透析產品在台灣市場市占率約30%。2025年全年合併營收約新台幣42.78億元,年增約5.04%,2025年EPS約8.28元;2026年1至5月累計營收約18.60億元,年增約6.8%,2026年第1季EPS約2.34元。主要客戶為醫院、洗腎中心、診所、牙醫診所、醫療通路、藥局、居家照護與終端病患;透析耗材具重複性需求,形成較穩定的消耗品收入。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028年展望以穩定成長為主,主要動能來自台灣高齡化、慢性腎臟病與洗腎人口維持高基數、血液透析耗材重複消耗、醫院與洗腎中心對設備維修與耗材供應的黏著度,以及公司持續擴大牙科、呼吸睡眠、急重症、外科與居家照護產品線。公司長期策略由純銷售服務延伸至醫療服務、洗腎中心管理顧問、製造與貼標包裝能力,並透過上海台昌、印尼布局與東南亞市場拓展提高區域機會。2025年營收已達42.78億元、年增5.04%,2026年前5月累計營收年增約6.8%,顯示本業仍具溫和成長。中期成長題材包括新代理品牌導入、自有品牌與醫材製造能力提升、合規醫材物流倉儲、呼吸睡眠居家服務,以及牙材與植牙材料滲透率提升。主要風險包括健保給付與醫療院所採購價格壓力、代理品牌合約或供貨集中風險、匯率與進口成本波動、醫材法規與品質系統要求、同業競爭、庫存跌價、應收帳款週轉,以及透析市場若受政策總額或治療模式改變影響,將壓縮成長率。2027至2028年的具體營收或獲利目標公司未公開完整財測,因此僅能以產業趨勢與既有營收表現作保守推估。
Supply Chain
- Toray Medical/東麗醫療相關事業 日本集團與醫療器材供應商,杏昌早期即代理TORAY血液透析產品;非台股掛牌公司。
- Terumo/泰爾茂 日本醫療器材公司,公開沿革資料列示杏昌曾代理其血液透析相關產品;非台股掛牌公司。
- Baxter/百特 美國上市醫療產品公司,公開資料與投資文章列為杏昌洗腎相關代理品牌之一;非台股掛牌公司。
- 邦特生物科技 4107 台灣上市櫃醫療耗材公司,產品涵蓋透析血液迴路管等,公開投資資料列為杏昌洗腎品牌/產品來源之一,同時在部分透析耗材市場具競合關係。
- ResMed/瑞思邁 呼吸與睡眠治療設備品牌,杏昌HiCPAP網站標示為台灣授權經銷商及維修中心;非台股掛牌公司。
- VITAL Healthcare 馬來西亞醫療耗材品牌,公開投資資料列為杏昌代理洗腎相關品牌之一;非台股掛牌公司。
- 醫院與洗腎中心 主要終端客戶,採購血液透析設備、人工腎臟、血液迴路管、藥水、紅血球生成素及相關耗材;多數為醫療院所或未上市法人。
- 診所與牙醫診所 牙科材料、植牙材料、醫用材料與相關設備之下游客戶;多數未上市。
- 藥局、電商與居家照護消費者 居家保健、呼吸睡眠、營養補充與部分醫材保健產品通路及終端使用者;多數非台股掛牌。
- 宏醫實業股份有限公司 杏昌100%持股子公司,提供洗腎中心儀器設備、藥品耗材採購建議、洗腎中心規劃設計與建設顧問;未上市。
- 杏昌健康服務/杏華生技等轉投資事業 集團用於牙材、呼吸治療、睡眠照護、醫療服務與通路延伸之關係企業;未確認為台股掛牌公司。
Competitors
- 佳醫健康事業 4104 台股上市櫃醫療服務與洗腎相關通路/服務公司,公開資料列為杏昌在血液透析代理與醫療服務市場的主要同業。
- 盛弘醫藥 8403 台股上櫃醫療管理、醫藥物流與醫療通路服務公司,在醫療服務管理與醫材藥品供應鏈領域與杏昌部分業務重疊。
- 杏一醫療用品 4175 台股上櫃醫療用品零售與通路公司,與杏昌在居家保健、醫療耗材與部分醫材通路端有間接競爭。
- 邦特生物科技 4107 台股上市櫃醫療耗材製造商,透析迴路管、輸液與導管等產品與杏昌代理或銷售之透析耗材形成供應與競合關係。
- 雃博 4106 台股上市櫃醫療器材公司,產品涵蓋呼吸治療、居家照護與醫療設備,與杏昌呼吸睡眠與居家醫材線有部分競爭。
Sources(22)
- tpex.org.tw
- goodinfo.tw
- wantgoo.com
- cnyes.com
- tw.stock.yahoo.com
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- hiclearance.com.tw
- hiclearance.com.tw
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- job.taiwanjobs.gov.tw
- taiwan-healthcare.org
- moneydj.com
- wealth.businessweekly.com.tw
- concords.moneydj.com
- fubon-ebrokerdj.fbs.com.tw
- goodinfo.tw
- histock.tw
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- hicpap.com.tw
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.