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2476

鉅祥 Electronic Components As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 鉅祥 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 42Quality 73Growth 83Momentum 84Chips 32

Is 鉅祥 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~80% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.8%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 59th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 99th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.9% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 48.7%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.79
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 凱基-台北 holds 3,457 lots
  • sellers have 3,890 lots left, ~77 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +28% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 凱基-台北 has accumulated 3,457 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 2,602 lots, has sold 36%, 1,664 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +9.67pp, mid holders +4, retail -9.23pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -165 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
凱基-台北國票-安和兆豐-民生康和凱基-信義兆豐-大安
Distributing
美商高盛新加坡商瑞銀台灣摩根士丹利摩根大通美林富邦證券
Desks
own scale
華南永昌-林口兆豐-復興兆豐-桃鶯宏遠-桃園
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 凱基-台北 +3,457
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國票-安和 +2,817
    sold 22%
  • 兆豐-民生 +2,682
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 康和 +2,366
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-信義 +2,299
    sold 10%
  • 兆豐-大安 +2,198
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 1,664 left
    sold 36%· paused recently
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 675 left
    sold 70%· ~29 sessions to clear
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 848 left
    sold 62%· ~28 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 946 left
    sold 55%· paused recently
  • 美林 456 left
    sold 72%· ~21 sessions to clear
  • 富邦證券 697 left
    sold 35%· ~20 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 華南永昌-林口 -2,317
    unclassified
  • 兆豐-復興 -1,888
    unclassified
  • 兆豐-桃鶯 -1,317
    unclassified
  • 宏遠-桃園 -790
    unclassified
Still selling 3,890 lots ~77 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +5,839 absorbed / -2,133 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -24 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 48.67%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

48 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 55.6%, Sample 36, Median +1.69%, Excess +0.98%, Beat mkt rate 47.2%；60-day: Win 67.6%, Sample 34, Median +5.32%, Excess +6.05%, Beat mkt rate 58.8%；120-day: Win 62.5%, Sample 32, Median +4.11%, Excess +11.56%, Beat mkt rate 46.9%

120 days after: historical avg +17.81%

20-day +2.42%
60-day +10.72%
120-day +17.81%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
55.6%
67.6%
62.5%
Sample
36
34
32
Median
+1.69%
+5.32%
+4.11%
Excess
+0.98%
+6.05%
+11.56%
Beat mkt rate
47.2%
58.8%
46.9%

Over 32 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 17.81%, beat the market by 11.56 pts; win rate 62.5%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 512+32.4% +25.7% 96.7% +11.5%
20-40 452+17.9% +11.1% 72.3% +3.4%
40-60 418+10.6% +5.3% 61.2% -2.7%
60-80 485+31.4% +7.7% 63.3% +6.7%
80-100 You are here1169+29.7% +1.1% 51.5% +16.6%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 28.03, at the 99.2th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+10.4%
Win rate 91.3% Excess +1.9%
358d
+3.1%
Win rate 52.3% Excess -2.9%
520d
Now
+18.5%
Win rate 61.4% Excess +8.3%
1062d
60-day momentum down
+13.1%
Win rate 96.1% Excess +3.3%
441d
+6.3%
Win rate 40.7% Excess +1.4%
275d
+9%
Win rate 53.8% Excess +1.1%
500d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1062 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 18.5%, win rate 61.4%, beat the market by 8.3%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

26 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.4%, win rate 54.2%, beating the market by +2.9 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

57 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.95%, win rate 61.8%, beating the market by +2.1 pts on average.

What does 鉅祥 do? Company profile

電子零組件業 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2476 對應證券為鉅祥企業股份有限公司，屬台灣證券交易所上市普通股，產業類別為電子零組件業。公司英文名為 G-SHANK ENTERPRISE CO., LTD.，總部位於桃園市新屋區九斗里九洲路1號；董事長為林於晃，總經理為林映碩。公司官網及永續報告書稱鉅祥自1973年起從事精密連續沖模設計、製造與生產；公開市場資料亦常列成立日為1975/02/01，並記載上市日期為2001/09/17，早期曾於櫃買中心掛牌後轉上市。台灣證交所個股資訊於2026/06/17顯示實收資本額為新台幣2,180,809,980元。2024年永續報告書揭露員工總人數約台灣730人、集團2,500人。公司股東專欄前十大股東資訊更新日為2026/04/14，主要股東包括吉弘投資16,089,465股、持股7.38%；宸林投資9,052,790股、4.15%；林於晃8,612,089股、3.95%；宏岳投資7,351,650股、3.37%；詹美珠5,687,897股、2.61%；呂瑞玲4,000,000股、1.83%；偉豐投資3,860,000股、1.77%；林顯國3,793,106股、1.74%；林映誌3,588,439股、1.65%；宸光投資3,409,498股、1.56%。

Business

鉅祥核心業務為連續沖壓精密金屬零件與連續沖壓模具，並延伸至機械零組件、刀具、夾具、自動化專用機、塑膠射出成型、電鍍、後製程加工與組裝。商業模式以客製化精密模具開發、沖壓量產、表面處理與組裝的一貫化製造服務為主，供應車用電子、工業設備、通信、家電、消費性電子、醫療、伺服器與AI資料中心相關零組件。公司官網列出應用包含車用攝影機、車用安全系統、動力系統、連接器、工業自動化、工廠自動化、半導體、網路通信與伺服器等。依鉅亨網引述2025年1至9月應用結構，車載約19%、工業用約34%、網通約11%、PC/NB約19%、消費電子約17%；若將AI應用獨立觀察，AI相關產品約占整體營收20%，金額較去年同期成長約10%至15%。2025年前三季營收54.33億元，毛利率29.76%，稅後純益5.75億元，EPS 2.72元；2025全年營收74.46億元、年增12.66%，第四季營收20.13億元，均創高。2026年1至5月公司自結每月營收合計3,819,639千元，年增33.42%。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望以AI伺服器、BBU電池備援系統、工業設備、車用電子與全球產能分散為主軸。2024年底市場報導指出，AI伺服器電源瓦數提高使BBU規格與用量上升，鉅祥供貨重點為主機房BBU用金屬連接機構件，當時AI應用占營收約15%，訂單能見度至2025年第2季。2025年後，AI及高速運算需求延續，2025全年營收創高，2026年1至5月營收年增33.42%，顯示新應用與產能貢獻仍在發酵。產能面，桃園觀音新廠已完成進駐並承接部分AI伺服器BBU機構件及支架；菲律賓生產線規劃於2026年第1季加入，以車用產品及連接器為主；惠州新廠預計2026年下半年完工；上海廠規劃投資人民幣8,000萬元興建沖壓、後處理廠房及自動化倉儲，預計2027年第3季運作。技術面，法說整理提及高階電鍍線取得合法執照，從鍍銅朝鍍鎳、金、錫等高階製程擴充，有助提升垂直整合與高值化。潛在風險包括新台幣升值造成匯損、黃金等原物料價格上漲、客戶關稅壓力使轉嫁能力受限、車用需求受關稅與市場整合影響、AI/BBU訂單集中度與景氣循環、海外擴產進度與良率爬坡、以及中國、台灣、菲律賓等跨區生產的地緣政治與管理風險。2027至2028年的上海與惠州新產能若如期投產，將有助供應鏈韌性與接單彈性，但實際營收與獲利仍取決於AI伺服器、車用、工控終端需求及原物料/匯率環境。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 銅合金、磷青銅、不鏽鋼等金屬材料供應商 精密沖壓端子、機構件與連接器零組件的主要原材料來源；公司未在公開資料逐一揭露供應商名稱。
  • 金、鎳、錫與電鍍藥水/表面處理設備供應商 鉅祥擴充高階電鍍製程，需使用貴金屬、鎳錫材料、藥水與設備；實際供應商未確認。
  • 沖壓機、模具鋼材、檢測與自動化設備供應商 支撐連續沖壓模具設計、量產、自動化倉儲與檢測能力；公司官網揭露具機械加工、沖壓、塑膠射出、電鍍、後製程與組裝能力，但未揭露特定設備供應商。
Downstream
  • 國際連接器與電子零組件品牌客戶 公司主要供應精密沖壓件、模具與連接相關金屬零組件；第三方資料提及TYCO/TE Connectivity、Hirose、Yamaichi等國際客戶，但未由公司逐一公開確認。
  • AI伺服器與資料中心BBU客戶 鉅祥供應AI伺服器及主機房BBU用金屬連接機構件、支架等，2025年AI相關產品約占營收20%；客戶多為外商或供應鏈客戶，公開資料未揭露完整名單。
  • 車用電子一線客戶與模組廠 應用於車用攝影機、安全系統、動力系統、座椅/門禁、雷達、胎壓偵測與車用連接器等；公司具IATF16949相關車用供應鏈能力，但未揭露客戶名單。
  • 台達電 2308 台股上市公司；新聞提及台達電BBU Power Rack設計為AI伺服器BBU供應鏈重要環節，屬鉅祥AI/BBU下游生態系相關廠商，未確認為鉅祥直接客戶。
  • 新普科技集團 AES-KY 6781 台股上市公司；新聞列為台達電BBU電池模組供應商之一，屬AI伺服器BBU生態系相關廠商，未確認為鉅祥直接客戶。
  • 順達科技 3211 台股上櫃公司；新聞列為BBU電池模組相關受惠者，屬AI伺服器BBU生態系相關廠商，未確認為鉅祥直接客戶。

Competitors

  • 健和興端子 3003 台股上市公司；同為端子、連接器與BBU相關金屬連接件供應商，新聞中與鉅祥同被列為BBU用連接金屬機構件供應商。
  • 建通精密 2460 台股上市公司；生產端子、連接器及精密金屬零組件，與鉅祥在沖壓端子與連接器零組件領域具可比性。
  • 胡連精密 6279 台股上市公司；車用連接器與端子廠，與鉅祥車用電子零組件與連接器應用競爭或重疊。
  • 凡甲科技 3526 台股上市公司；連接器廠，應用涵蓋伺服器、車用與工控等，與鉅祥部分下游應用重疊。
  • 宣德科技 5457 台股上櫃公司；連接器與線束相關廠商，與鉅祥在電子連接零組件供應鏈具可比性。
  • 貿聯-KY 3665 台股上市公司；高速傳輸、工業、車用與資料中心連接方案供應商，與鉅祥在高階應用供應鏈中部分競爭或互補。
  • 正崴精密 2392 台股上市公司；連接器、電源與電子零組件大廠，與鉅祥在電子連接與機構件供應鏈具可比性。
  • 同協電子 5460 台股上櫃公司；精密沖壓與電子零組件廠，與鉅祥傳統沖壓及金屬零組件業務相近。
Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.