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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 2489 瑞軒. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=2489
2489
quality needs a look, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 瑞軒 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 30th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.7%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 73th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 92th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.4% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +170% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 凱基-松山 has accumulated 19,828 lots since the start (sold 24%), now trimming.
- Main distributor 統一 peaked at 13,453 lots, has sold 34%, 8,891 left, ~97 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.29pp, mid holders -20, retail +1.10pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -42,154 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 凱基-松山 +19,828
- 國泰-敦南 +6,408
- 台新證券 +3,459
- 台新-建北 +3,095
- 中國信託 +2,386
- 大和國泰 +1,770
Distributing
- 統一 8,891 left
- 永豐金證券 9,118 left
- 國泰證券 1,401 left
- 凱基-信義 1,353 left
- 永豐金-信義 2,566 left
- 港商麥格理 4,040 left
Desks
- 凱基 -20,190
- 台灣摩根士丹利 -13,146
- 美商高盛 -6,021
- 摩根大通 -5,397
Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 556 | +5.4% | -7.8% | 41.7% | -20.5% |
| 20-40 | 154 | +43.6% | +39.1% | 73.4% | +2.7% |
| 40-60 | 230 | +11.1% | +4.4% | 59.1% | -14.4% |
| 60-80 | 369 | +11.4% | +0.7% | 52.6% | -3.7% |
| 80-100 You are here | 825 | +18.7% | +4.4% | 53.2% | -4.1% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 44.59, at the 91.9th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 567 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 2.3%, win rate 33.7%, lagged the market by 1.1%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
27 times historically; 60-day forward avg +14.94%, win rate 60%, beating the market by +8.4 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
95 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.76%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +1.59 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
75 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.91%, win rate 43.2%, beating the market by -1.04 pts on average.
What does 瑞軒 do? Company profile
Overview
瑞軒科技股份有限公司成立於1994/08/11，統一編號84929896，總部位於新北市中和區連城路268號17樓，董事長吳春發，總經理吳旭軒，發言人邱裕平。公開發行日為1997/06/04，上櫃日為1999/10/01，上市日為2001/09/17。公司因2025年現金減資，減資後實收資本額為新台幣61億元、普通股610,000,000股。2025年度年報揭露截至2026/02/28集團從業員工合計5,542人，2025年度平均員工5,871人。2026/03/30年報主要股東名單可確認者包括吳春發持股27,467,054股、4.50%，祐軒投資15,841,448股、2.60%，廖學邦15,102,000股、2.48%；同份年報未顯示單一持股超過10%之主要股東。生產據點包括台灣湖口、中國蘇州與越南海防，近年因應China+1與非中國產能需求，越南三期廠房已完成擴建並重啟台灣生產線。
Business
瑞軒為顯示器與智慧終端硬體設計製造商，從傳統LCD TV、TFT-LCD顯示器代工，逐步轉向高附加價值的電競顯示器、OLED/Mini LED/量子點顯示產品、電腦周邊、視訊會議設備、AIoT智慧感測與智慧應用裝置。2025年度產品營收結構為顯示器新台幣128.95808億元、52.30%，數位電視機31.49090億元、12.77%，電腦周邊55.64399億元、22.57%，視訊會議設備20.63950億元、8.37%，其他9.85811億元、3.99%。主要商品包括24至75吋DLED/ELED/Mini LED連網與非連網TV、Fire TV/WebOS/XUMO TV/小米連網TV、24至34吋高刷新率與OLED電競顯示器、Android視訊會議控制模組與整合式會議系統、有線與無線滑鼠、網路攝影機、智慧音箱及陪伴型機器人。2025年度銷售地區以內銷43.47%、歐洲30.90%、亞洲19.12%、美洲2.42%、其他4.09%為主；公司年報稱主要客戶為國外知名大廠且以外銷為主，但因保密協議僅以代號揭露主要客戶。商業模式以品牌客戶ODM/OEM、共同產品定義、製造與供應鏈整合為核心，並逐步提高產品規格、非電視產品與商用視訊解決方案比重。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025年公司已完成明顯產品組合轉型，全年合併營收246.59億元、稅後淨利8.11億元、EPS 1.22元；非電視類高價值產品營收貢獻提升至83%，視訊會議系統、電競顯示器與電腦周邊成為主要成長動能。2026年展望方面，公司年報與公開報導均指向世界盃賽事帶動顯示產品需求，顯示器、電腦周邊與視訊產品出貨量可望成長，並以OLED電競顯示器、75吋以上超大型TV、視訊會議系統、AIoT智慧感測與高階周邊提高毛利率。2027至2028年屬推估：若混合辦公常態化、企業會議室升級、OLED監視器滲透率提升、AI PC與商用顯示需求延續，瑞軒有機會延續高階顯示與視訊會議設備比重提升；但需驗證品牌客戶實際拉貨、面板成本、產品認證進度與越南/台灣非中國產能稼動率。主要風險包括TV與顯示器景氣循環、面板與關鍵零組件價格上漲、客戶集中且名稱未揭露、外銷與美元/人民幣匯率波動、關稅與地緣政治、低價競爭、OLED殘影/散熱/保固設計壓力、ESG與客戶低碳供應鏈要求。
Supply Chain
- 面板供應商A公司/S公司 2025年報揭露主要原料為面板，且主要供應商因保密協議僅以A公司、S公司代稱；2025年A公司占全年進貨淨額14%，2024年S公司占15%。
- 友達光電 2409 台股上市面板廠；屬瑞軒產品所需面板上游產業代表，年報僅稱面板由國內外知名廠商供應，未確認為直接供應商。
- 群創光電 3481 台股上市面板廠；屬瑞軒產品所需面板上游產業代表，年報僅稱面板由國內外知名廠商供應，未確認為直接供應商。
- 京東方 中國A股上市面板廠；年報在大尺寸面板產能與產業趨勢中提及京東方，未確認為直接供應商。
- 華星光電 中國TCL科技旗下/中國掛牌集團之面板廠；年報在大尺寸面板產能與產業趨勢中提及華星光電，未確認為直接供應商。
- 控制晶片供應商 年報稱公司與面板廠及控制晶片IC供應商策略合作以確保供貨穩定，但未揭露具體公司名稱。
- 客戶L公司/A公司/I公司 2025年報因保密協議以代號揭露主要銷貨客戶；2025年L公司占銷貨24%、A公司占24%、I公司占12%，實際名稱未公開。
- 三星電子 韓國上市公司；MoneyDJ報導稱瑞軒電競顯示器代工客戶涵蓋三星。
- 華碩 2357 台股上市品牌廠；MoneyDJ報導稱瑞軒電競顯示器代工客戶涵蓋華碩。
- 微星科技 2377 台股上市品牌廠；MoneyDJ報導稱瑞軒電競顯示器代工客戶涵蓋微星。
- 技嘉科技 2376 台股上市品牌廠；MoneyDJ報導稱瑞軒電競顯示器代工客戶涵蓋技嘉。
- Microsoft 美國上市公司；瑞軒年報提及深化與Microsoft的策略合作、投入MDEP架構開發以縮短Teams等雲端環境認證週期，屬視訊會議系統生態下游/平台關係。
Competitors
Sources（13）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.