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2609

陽明 Shipping As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 陽明 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 78Quality 32Growth 67Momentum 14Chips 99

Is 陽明 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 33th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.5%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 34th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 76th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 26.7% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 22.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.21
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 摩根大通 holds 29,338 lots
  • sellers have 2,931 lots left, ~216 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -4% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 29,338 lots since the start (sold 20%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 74,144 lots, has sold 29%, 52,407 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -2.07pp, mid holders -21, retail +2.47pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,717 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
摩根大通永豐金-匯立凱基美林國泰-敦南富邦-台北
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利新加坡商瑞銀美商高盛花旗環球凱基-台北國票-敦北法人
Desks
own scale
富邦證券群益金鼎元大證券康和
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 摩根大通 +29,338
    sold 20%· still adding
  • 永豐金-匯立 +29,105
    sold 7%
  • 凱基 +26,092
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美林 +15,878
    sold 13%· still adding
  • 國泰-敦南 +4,204
    sold 10%· still adding
  • 富邦-台北 +2,988
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 52,407 left
    sold 29%· paused recently
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 19,935 left
    sold 26%· paused recently
  • 美商高盛 14,884 left
    sold 27%· paused recently
  • 花旗環球 6,915 left
    sold 60%· paused recently
  • 凱基-台北 4,603 left
    sold 36%· paused recently
  • 國票-敦北法人 701 left
    sold 63%· paused recently

Desks

  • 富邦證券 -128,029
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎 -80,858
    unclassified
  • 元大證券 -26,883
    unclassified
  • 康和 -8,979
    unclassified
Still selling 2,931 lots ~216 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +68,722 absorbed / -845 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -1,454 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 22.22%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

75 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 58%, Sample 69, Median +1.6%, Excess +6.66%, Beat mkt rate 53.6%；60-day: Win 59.4%, Sample 69, Median +5.9%, Excess +19.2%, Beat mkt rate 55.1%；120-day: Win 53.6%, Sample 69, Median +3.5%, Excess +39.36%, Beat mkt rate 50.7%

120 days after: historical avg +42.47%

20-day +7.53%
60-day +20.89%
120-day +42.47%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
58%
59.4%
53.6%
Sample
69
69
69
Median
+1.6%
+5.9%
+3.5%
Excess
+6.66%
+19.2%
+39.36%
Beat mkt rate
53.6%
55.1%
50.7%

Over 69 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 42.47%, beat the market by 39.36 pts; win rate 53.6%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 459-3.6% -9.6% 33.1% -15.4%
20-40 248+7.5% -14.5% 32.7% -37.4%
40-60 178+27.6% +38.4% 69.1% +8.4%
60-80 You are here84+23% +11.5% 86.9% +19.6%
80-100 44+196.9% +278.1% 100% +188%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 16.75, at the 76.5th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-3.3%
Win rate 27.9% Excess -7.7%
298d
+11%
Win rate 60.2% Excess +1.9%
181d
+91.1%
Win rate 94.1% Excess +84.1%
102d
60-day momentum down
-1.9%
Win rate 43.9% Excess -17.4%
424d
+16.6%
Win rate 67.6% Excess -3.9%
102d
Now
Insufficient data
(26d)

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

17 times historically; 60-day forward avg +34.44%, win rate 58.8%, beating the market by +28.05 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

65 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.09%, win rate 39.1%, beating the market by +4.59 pts on average.

What does 陽明 do? Company profile

航運業／貨櫃航運 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2609 對應證券為陽明海運股份有限公司普通股，於台灣證券交易所上市，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 1972/12/29，上市日期為 1992/04/20，總部位於基隆市七堵區明德一路271號，統一編號 04200199。董事長為蔡豐明；總經理白崑榮於 2026/02/10 退休後，由李明輝接任。實收資本額約新台幣 349.210427 億元，已發行普通股約 34.9210427 億股。2026 年第一季法說會揭露 2025 年營業收入約新台幣 1,635.58 億元，全球員工 6,476 人，全球代理行 238 個、全球營運據點 27 個、週航線服務 91 條。主要股東依近年可查資料包含交通部、行政院國家發展基金管理會、臺灣港務股份有限公司；較常被引用的持股比率約為交通部 13.39%、國發基金 13.17%、臺灣港務 4.59%，但此持股資料非本次逐筆由最新股東名冊驗證，應以公司最新年報與公開資訊觀測站為準。

Business

陽明海運核心業務為國際定期貨櫃運輸，並延伸至物流、碼頭、貨櫃集散、內陸拖車、船舶與貨櫃租賃、修理、買賣，以及子公司光明海運的散裝航運。2025 年集團事業群營收比重為貨櫃航運 93.7%、物流事業 4.6%、散裝航運 1.5%、碼頭事業 0.2%；同年航線運費收入比重為歐洲線 38%、美洲線 36%、亞洲 II 14%、亞洲 I 12%。2025 年貨櫃營運量約 441.9 萬 TEU，低於 2024 年約 471.8 萬 TEU。2026 年 3 月 Alphaliner 資料顯示陽明總運力約 72.9 萬 TEU、全球排名第九、市占率約 2.2%。商業模式以自有船與租入船搭配營運，透過自營航線、艙位互換、船舶共享、國際代理行與物流子公司承接製造業、零售商、貿易商、貨代與跨境電商等客戶的全球貨物運輸需求。2025 年底至 2026 年第一季船隊約 97 至 98 艘，其中 2026 年第一季自有船 62 艘、租入船 36 艘，自有運力占約 50%。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年：陽明已反映疫後貨櫃航運正常化與運價回落，全年營收約新台幣 1,636 億元、歸屬母公司淨利約新台幣 171 億元、EPS 約 4.9 元，明顯低於 2024 年 EPS 18.38 元；主因包含運價回落、美國關稅與貿易政策不確定、部分航線運量下滑。2026 年：公司法說會指出產業仍受新船交付、關稅政策、中東與紅海局勢、港口壅塞、油價與環保法規影響；Drewry、Alphaliner、Clarksons 對 2026 年供給成長約 3.1% 至 4.4%、需求成長約 2.2% 至 2.6%，顯示供給增速大致高於需求，運價波動與供過於求壓力仍在，但紅海繞航與航商汰舊換新可吸收部分有效運力。2026 年第一季已因首艘 15,600 TEU LNG 雙燃料自有船交付，使總運力增加約 15,600 TEU。2027 年：公司 2022 年董事會通過的 5 艘 15,600 TEU LNG 雙燃料船預計於 2026Q1 至 2027Q1 交付完畢，將推動船隊年輕化、燃效改善與歐盟等環保法規適應能力，但若全球景氣放緩或新船集中交付，獲利仍可能受運價壓抑。2028 年：2025 年新增的新造船計畫包含 7 艘 16,000 TEU LNG 雙燃料船預計 2028Q3 起至 2029Q2 交付、6 艘 8,000 TEU 甲醇雙燃料預置船預計 2028Q4 起至 2030Q1 交付；2028 年起汰換 20 年以上 5,500 至 6,500 TEU 老舊船舶的效益開始顯現。主要成長動能為低碳船隊更新、Premier Alliance 與 MSC 亞歐線合作提升航網覆蓋、亞洲區間與中南美等利基市場、供應鏈重組帶動的區域貨流；主要風險為全球經濟與消費需求放緩、關稅與地緣政治衝擊、紅海復航造成有效供給釋放、燃油與 LNG 價格波動、碳費與環保投資成本、新船供給過剩、主要航商價格競爭。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 日本造船株式會社 日本未於台股掛牌造船公司；陽明 2025 年向其與今治造船訂造或購入 8,000 TEU 級甲醇雙燃料預置全貨櫃船。
  • 今治造船株式會社 日本未於台股掛牌造船公司；為陽明 8,000 TEU 級新造船合作造船廠之一。
  • 韓華海洋 韓國上市造船公司，非台股；市場報導陽明與其簽署 16,000 TEU 級 LNG 雙燃料船建造合約，預計 2028 至 2029 年交付。
  • 臺灣中油股份有限公司 臺灣國營未上市公司；提供航運燃油與潤滑油，並與陽明進行船舶實測與潤滑油補給合作。
  • KPI Ocean Connect 非台股掛牌能源供應商；陽明導入 FAME B24 生質燃油時的合作供應商之一。
  • 中燃遠邦石油化工有限公司 非台股掛牌海運能源供應商；陽明導入生質燃油時的合作供應商之一。
Downstream
  • Ocean Network Express 非台股掛牌航商；與陽明、HMM 自 2025 年 2 月起組成 Premier Alliance，透過船舶共享與艙位交換擴大航網。
  • HMM 韓國上市航商，非台股；與陽明、ONE 組成 Premier Alliance，為航線合作與艙位交換夥伴。
  • Mediterranean Shipping Company 瑞士未上市航商；Premier Alliance 在亞歐貿易航線與 MSC 合作，屬航線網絡與艙位合作關係。
  • 高明貨櫃碼頭股份有限公司 未上市轉投資／關係企業；提供高雄港貨櫃碼頭相關服務，屬陽明航運服務鏈的碼頭端。
  • 好好國際物流股份有限公司 未上市子公司；提供國際貨運承攬、倉儲、轉運樞紐與跨境電商物流服務，承接貨主物流需求。
  • 駿明交通運輸股份有限公司 未上市關係企業；提供臺灣內陸貨櫃拖車與陸運銜接服務，屬海運後段物流。

Competitors

  • 長榮海運股份有限公司 2603 台股上市貨櫃航運公司，臺灣貨櫃三雄之一，全球運力排名高於陽明。
  • 萬海航運股份有限公司 2615 台股上市貨櫃航運公司，亞洲區間線與部分遠洋線與陽明競爭。
  • Mediterranean Shipping Company 瑞士未上市全球大型貨櫃航商；全球運力排名前段，亦為 Premier Alliance 亞歐線合作方。
  • Maersk 丹麥上市全球貨櫃航商，非台股；在東西向主幹航線與綜合物流服務上競爭。
  • CMA CGM Group 法國未上市全球貨櫃航商；在歐洲、亞洲、美洲航線與端到端物流服務上競爭。
  • COSCO Group 中國航運集團，旗下公司於中國／香港上市但非台股；在亞洲、歐洲與跨太平洋線競爭。
  • Hapag-Lloyd 德國上市航商，非台股；大型遠洋貨櫃航商。
  • Ocean Network Express 日本三大航商合資、非台股掛牌；既是 Premier Alliance 夥伴，也是全球貨櫃航運市場競爭者。
  • HMM 韓國上市航商，非台股；既是 Premier Alliance 夥伴，也在部分航線與陽明競爭。
  • ZIM Integrated Shipping Services 美國上市航商，非台股；在跨太平洋與利基航線競爭。
Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.