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2903
steady quality, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 遠百 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 74th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.7%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 26th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 23th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 6.4% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +10% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 永豐金證券 has accumulated 11,364 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 2,950 lots, has sold 86%, 425 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +3.56pp, mid holders -4, retail -2.86pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -2,560 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 永豐金證券 +11,364
- 富邦證券 +11,278
- 兆豐證券 +5,418
- 中國信託 +4,540
- 群益金鼎 +4,476
- 臺銀 +4,185
Distributing
- 凱基-台北 425 left
- 統一 642 left
- 港商野村 470 left
- 富邦-竹科 422 left
- 台新-城東 92 left
- 凱基-站前 346 left
Desks
- 摩根大通 -7,733
- 凱基 -2,116
- 群益金鼎-大安 -1,327
- 元大-大安 -1,268
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 1162 | +11.5% | +1.6% | 53.7% | -9% |
| 20-40 You are here | 789 | +4.2% | +2.7% | 59.7% | -11.7% |
| 40-60 | 501 | -4.7% | +0.5% | 50.9% | -10.3% |
| 60-80 | 261 | -3.5% | -2.5% | 36% | -18.9% |
| 80-100 | 318 | +6.8% | +10.1% | 58.5% | -14.4% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 14.91, at the 22.6th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 859 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 7.5%, win rate 55.6%, lagged the market by 5.2%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
27 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.87%, win rate 70.4%, beating the market by -0.34 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
31 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.93%, win rate 57.1%, beating the market by -1.9 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
46 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.38%, win rate 37.8%, beating the market by -3.07 pts on average.
What does 遠百 do? Company profile
Overview
2903 對應遠東百貨股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司成立於1967/08/31，1978/10/11上市；總部位於新北市板橋區新站路16號18樓；董事長徐旭東、總經理徐雪芳；實收資本額約新台幣141.69億元，已發行普通股約14.17億股。2024年底遠東百貨本體員工1,241人，其中正式員工1,238人、短期約聘3人。主要股東依公開股東資料包含遠東新世紀約17.06%、遠鼎投資約9.87%、亞洲水泥約5.65%、遠通投資約5.62%、財團法人元智大學約4.75%，另有機構投資人與職工退休基金等；前述持股比例以已查得公開文件為準，最新完整前十大股東仍應以公司最新股東會或公開資訊觀測站資料核對。
Business
遠東百貨是遠東集團零售平台，主要營業型態包含百貨公司、購物中心、量販店與高端超市，旗下或投資通路包括遠東百貨、大遠百/City系列購物中心、遠東SOGO、愛買、city’super，以及線上通路與會員/APP服務。主要收入來自百貨零售、專櫃抽成、租賃與管理服務、量販與超市商品銷售、餐飲與體驗型商場業態。MoneyDJ揭露至2024年第3季營收比重約為遠東百貨46%、遠東SOGO36%、愛買11%、大陸體系與其他7%；富邦/MoneyDJ頁面另列營收比重百貨零售約90.25%，口徑不同，應分別理解為集團通路拆分與財報營業項目拆分。2024年遠百本體營業額約593億元、營業利益25億元、稅前淨利27億元；2024年合併財報營業收入350.07億元、歸屬母公司稅後淨利23.26億元、EPS 1.65元。遠百零售體系含遠百、遠東SOGO、愛買、city’super等2024年合併營業額約1,320億元。終端客群為台灣都會消費者、百貨會員、家庭採購客、高端食品與精品消費客；主要客戶不是少數B2B客戶，而是大量零售消費者與進駐品牌專櫃。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028年核心展望為展店、改裝、體驗式百貨、數位會員經營與營運效率改善。成長動能包括遠東Garden City逐步全區營運，結合餐飲、文創與國際賽事，帶動SOGO體系營收；台北寶慶店原址重建，市場報導預計2028年前後完工重新開幕，定位新世代綠色百貨；公司也規劃於新北市TPARK科技園區新增上萬坪級據點，鄰近亞東醫院與住宅區。既有台中大遠百、板橋大遠百等大型店已進行改裝，後續仍以品牌更新、餐飲/體驗比例提升、AI會員訊息推播、APP與電商整合提高來客與轉換率。產業趨勢方面，台灣百貨市場2024年營業額約4,491億元、年增1.45%，顯示內需仍有支撐，但成長趨緩；百貨業競爭焦點轉向差異化商場內容、餐飲娛樂占比、精品與年輕客群、會員數據經營。風險包括實質薪資與消費信心波動、國旅/出國消費排擠、電價與人事成本上升、新展店初期折舊與租金費用、電商分流、商圈競爭、精品品牌議價力、食品安全與資安/個資風險、寶慶店與TPARK等開發案時程延遲。2026年媒體報導遠百零售體系2025年合併營業額約1,312億元、EPS 1.56元、現金股利1.25元，顯示短期仍以穩定配息與效率改善為主，成長爆發點較依賴Garden City成熟化與新店開出。
Supply Chain
- 遠東新世紀股份有限公司 1402 台股上市公司；遠東集團核心與遠百主要股東，遠百初期由遠東紡織籌設，並在集團品牌、資源與不動產開發網絡上具關係企業角色。
- 亞洲水泥股份有限公司 1102 台股上市公司；遠東集團關係企業及遠百主要股東，非百貨商品供應商，但為集團股權與資源網絡重要節點。
- 遠東國際商業銀行股份有限公司 2845 台股上市公司；遠東集團金融服務關係企業，可與百貨會員、信用卡、支付、促銷活動形成金融服務合作關係。
- 亞東電子商務股份有限公司 未上市關係企業；MoneyDJ資料提及遠百與其合作GO HAPPY網站，屬線上零售與系統平台合作。
- 國際精品、服飾、美妝、餐飲與食品品牌供應商 多數為外商或未上市品牌/專櫃廠商；遠百以專櫃、租賃、抽成、買斷與聯名促銷等模式引入商品與服務。
- 遠東SOGO百貨股份有限公司 未上市；遠百轉投資/關係零售通路，為集團百貨體系重要下游營運平台，包含忠孝、復興、天母、中壢、新竹、高雄與Garden City等據點。
- 愛買量販 未上市；遠百零售體系量販通路，服務家庭採購與民生消費需求。
- city’super 未上市；高端超市/食品通路，作為遠百與SOGO商場內差異化零售內容。
- GO HAPPY與逛! City等線上/會員平台使用者 終端為一般消費者與會員，非上市櫃公司；用於促銷推播、線上購物與O2O導流。
- 一般消費者、百貨會員與企業禮券客戶 終端消費者與部分企業採購客戶；公司營收高度分散，不依賴少數單一客戶。
Competitors
- 新光三越百貨股份有限公司 未上市；台灣百貨業最大級競爭者，與遠百/SOGO在信義、台中、台南、高雄等商圈競爭。
- 微風廣場實業股份有限公司 未上市；台北精品、餐飲與商場經營競爭者。
- 漢神百貨與漢神巨蛋 未上市；高雄百貨與購物中心重要競爭者。
- 統一時代百貨 未上市；母集團統一企業為台股上市公司1216，但百貨營運實體本身非上市櫃；與遠百信義A13、SOGO等在商圈競爭。
- 富邦媒體科技股份有限公司 8454 台股上市公司；momo電商平台，屬零售消費預算與線上通路競爭者。
- 網路家庭國際資訊股份有限公司 8044 台股上櫃公司；PChome電商平台，屬線上零售競爭者。
- 寶雅國際股份有限公司 5904 台股上櫃公司；美妝生活用品通路，與百貨美妝、生活雜貨品類競爭。
- 統一超商股份有限公司 2912 台股上市公司；便利商店與零售服務龍頭，非直接百貨同業，但在民生零售、會員與支付生態競爭。
Sources（14）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.