Ask AI to review this stock
Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.
Tell your AI:
Help me set up FinLab and analyze 3021 鴻名. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=3021
3021
steady quality, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 鴻名 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
-
Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 43th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.0%.
-
Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 77th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 97th percentile.
-
Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 0.1% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +68% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 國泰-敦南 has accumulated 219 lots since the start (sold 4%), still adding.
- Main distributor 元大證券 peaked at 221 lots, has sold 85%, 34 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.01pp, mid holders -2, retail +0.32pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -178 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 國泰-敦南 +219
- 台新-敦南 +150
- 中國信託 +121
- 元大-民生三民 +108
- 中國信託-三重 +99
- 群益金鼎-館前 +86
Distributing
- 元大證券 34 left
- 統一 90 left
- 富邦-嘉義 77 left
- 康和-台北 9 left
- 新光-台南 16 left
- 群益金鼎-崇德 15 left
Desks
- 台新-城東 -483
- 新加坡商瑞銀 -297
- 富邦-南員林 -285
- 元大-華山 -200
Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
| 20-40 | 247 | +25.5% | +11.9% | 78.5% | -9.1% |
| 40-60 | 1234 | +13.8% | +9.9% | 82.8% | -4% |
| 60-80 | 874 | +7.1% | +2.1% | 54.8% | -2.1% |
| 80-100 You are here | 604 | -1.6% | -1.1% | 48.7% | -19.1% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 53.79, at the 96.6th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
(7d)
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 735 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 0.1%, win rate 43.7%, lagged the market by 6%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
24 times historically; 60-day forward avg -3.02%, win rate 30.4%, beating the market by -4.78 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
69 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.5%, win rate 61.9%, beating the market by +2.73 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
37 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.83%, win rate 56.8%, beating the market by -2.45 pts on average.
What does 鴻名 do? Company profile
Overview
3021 對應證券為鴻名企業股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司公開資料顯示成立日期為1993/05/25，前身為衛展資訊股份有限公司，2013年9月變更為現名；公開發行日期為1999/06/30，上櫃日期為2000/09/20，上市日期為2002/08/26。總部位於台北市東興路59號6樓，董事長為張允騰，總經理為林嘉祥，發言人為黃小菁。實收資本額約新台幣9.489億元，已發行普通股約94,890,000股。2024年永續報告書揭露鴻名企業總員工數為183人；2025年法說摘要另提及系統整合事業群團隊規模近400人、工程師逾200人，兩者口徑可能分別為母公司與事業群/集團人力。主要股東方面，公開董監持股資料顯示裕展股份有限公司為大股東，持股約11,153張、約11.75%；董事長張允騰及部分董事、經理人亦持股。
Business
鴻名目前以兩大事業群為核心：一是線材暨連接器/線束製造，產品包括連接器、連接線組、電子元件產品，以及家電、空調、汽車、事務機器設備相關接線組；二是電腦資訊系統整合與維護服務。MoneyDJ資料顯示2024年產品營收占比約為線材暨連接器60%、電腦資訊系統整合及維護服務40%；StockFeel資料則列示連接器線及連接器約59.9%、電腦資訊系統整合及維護服務約40.1%，兩者大致一致。線材/連接器產品應用於資訊產品、消費性電子、通訊系統、家電、遊戲機、自動化設備、車用多媒體、事務性機器等；2025年法說摘要進一步提到應用包含資訊設備含AI伺服器、工具機與機械手臂、醫療設備、智慧家電、汽車含智能車與充電樁、辦公室自動化設備。系統整合業務主要服務台灣市場，提供網路與機房建置、雲端規劃、資安、客製化軟體、GIS/圖資系統、資訊委外與維運等，客戶群涵蓋政府機關、金融服務業、醫療院所、教育與大型企業；法說摘要提及Google、Microsoft等國際客戶在台營運單位，但未見完整客戶名單與營收依賴度公開揭露。生產基地分布於中國大陸昆山、惠州/惠陽，泰國、菲律賓與印度；印度廠於2023年投資建置，2024年上半年開始量產。2024年銷售地區占比資料為亞洲59%、台灣41%。2025年全年合併營收約新台幣33.36億至33.40億元，較前一年約年減3.8%左右，稅後純益約2,758萬元，EPS約0.33元，董事會決議配發現金股利每股0.6元；2026年前5月累計營收約12.15億元，年增約1.19%。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028年展望以產品組合改善、供應鏈區域分散、車用/AI/高階工業應用與SI經常性收入為主要觀察軸。成長動能方面，線束與連接器事業群將受惠於AI伺服器內部高速訊號與電源線束、智能車/電動車、充電樁、工業自動化與醫療設備等對可靠連接元件需求提升；系統整合事業群則受企業數位轉型、資安、雲端、AI基礎設施、資訊委外與長期維運需求支撐。公司法說摘要指出製造事業群將開拓歐、美、日等較高附加價值市場，深化電動車相關產品，並強化中國、東南亞、印度三地生產佈局；SI事業群將從單次建置案轉向解決方案銷售與長期委外合約，以提高經常性收入。供應鏈策略上，印度與東南亞產能可對應美中貿易、關稅壁壘與客戶在地化生產需求，若量產效率、品質認證與客戶導入順利，2026至2028年可能逐步貢獻營收與毛利率改善。風險與挑戰包括：全球消費電子、車用與商用設備需求循環波動；連接器/線束產業競爭激烈且客戶議價力高；銅、塑膠粒、端子、匯率與工資成本波動；新廠產能爬坡、品質認證與良率風險；SI專案驗收時點與政府/大型企業標案波動；AI與車用產品若未能取得穩定大客戶訂單，成長性可能低於預期。2025年公司營收仍年減，代表復甦並非線性；2026年前5月累計營收小幅年增，需持續追蹤月營收、毛利率、印度廠貢獻、車用/AI產品占比及SI長約比例。
Supply Chain
- 政府機關與公共事業客戶 系統整合事業群承攬政府單位、公共事業如電力、水、電信相關資訊系統、GIS、資安、雲端與維運專案；非上市櫃公司或為機關類客戶。
- 金融服務業客戶 系統整合事業群服務金融業數位轉型、風控系統、資安與資訊委外；公開資料未揭露逐一客戶名稱。
- 醫療院所、教育單位與大型企業 系統整合下游客戶群，需求包括網路、機房、雲端、資安、客製化軟體與維運。
- Google台灣相關營運單位 法說摘要提及之國際客戶在台營運單位；母公司Alphabet為美國上市公司，非台股掛牌，且未揭露營收占比。
- Microsoft台灣相關營運單位 法說摘要提及之國際客戶在台營運單位；母公司Microsoft為美國上市公司，非台股掛牌，且未揭露營收占比。
- 資訊設備、AI伺服器、車用電子、充電樁、工業自動化與家電品牌/OEM客戶 線束與連接器產品下游應用客戶類別；公開資料未揭露具體客戶名單與直接供貨關係。
Competitors
- 恩得利 1333 台股上櫃公司，連接器/電子零組件同業；列為同業競爭參考。
- 廣宇 2328 台股上市公司，連接線材、連接器與電子零組件相關同業。
- 正崴 2392 台股上市公司，連接器、連接線、電源與電子零組件大廠，規模較鴻名大。
- 太空梭 2440 台股上市公司，線材、連接線與相關電子零組件同業。
- 建通 2460 台股上市公司，端子、連接器及相關零組件同業。
- 良得電 2462 台股上市公司，電源線與連接線組同業。
- 健和興 3003 台股上市公司，端子、連接器與車用/工業電子零組件同業。
- 今皓 3011 台股上市公司，連接器與連接線相關同業。
- 信邦 3023 台股上市公司，連接線束、連接器、工業/醫療/車用應用同業，產品與市場重疊度較高。
- 鴻碩 3092 台股上櫃公司，連接線材與訊號線相關同業。
Sources（15）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.