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3048

益登 Electronics Distribution As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 益登 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 37Quality 61Growth 87Momentum 93Chips 19

Is 益登 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 34th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 5.8%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 56th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 87th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -2.6% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 61.7%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.63
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 holds 5,379 lots
  • sellers have 6,105 lots left, ~1030 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +69% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 新加坡商瑞銀 has accumulated 5,379 lots since the start (sold 5%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 10,509 lots, has sold 84%, 1,680 left, ~6 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +8.38pp, mid holders +7, retail -8.48pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -442 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
新加坡商瑞銀美林富邦-七賢兆豐-高雄永豐金-古亭新光
Distributing
美商高盛台灣摩根士丹利摩根大通元大證券港商野村凱基-台北
Desks
own scale
中國信託凱基-三重富邦-永和花旗環球
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +5,379
    sold 5%· still adding
  • 美林 +4,083
    sold 12%· still adding
  • 富邦-七賢 +1,126
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 兆豐-高雄 +966
    sold 4%
  • 永豐金-古亭 +485
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 新光 +464
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 1,680 left
    sold 84%· ~6 sessions to clear
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 5,125 left
    sold 26%· paused recently
  • 摩根大通 1,582 left
    sold 61%· ~86 sessions to clear
  • 元大證券 605 left
    sold 85%· ~14 sessions to clear
  • 港商野村 577 left
    sold 81%· paused recently
  • 凱基-台北 1,414 left
    sold 52%· ~15 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 中國信託 -1,035
    unclassified
  • 凱基-三重 -960
    unclassified
  • 富邦-永和 -495
    unclassified
  • 花旗環球 -478
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 6,105 lots ~1030 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +5,534 absorbed / -4,735 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 61.74%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

86 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 59.3%, Sample 81, Median +1.38%, Excess +1.58%, Beat mkt rate 54.3%；60-day: Win 63.3%, Sample 79, Median +2.92%, Excess +4.72%, Beat mkt rate 51.9%；120-day: Win 58.2%, Sample 79, Median +7.45%, Excess +9.07%, Beat mkt rate 49.4%

120 days after: historical avg +12.83%

20-day +2.47%
60-day +7.04%
120-day +12.83%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
59.3%
63.3%
58.2%
Sample
81
79
79
Median
+1.38%
+2.92%
+7.45%
Excess
+1.58%
+4.72%
+9.07%
Beat mkt rate
54.3%
51.9%
49.4%

Over 79 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 12.83%, beat the market by 9.07 pts; win rate 58.2%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 865+21.3% +0.4% 50.9% +5%
20-40 568+33.3% +22.8% 66.2% +17.9%
40-60 554+32.9% +14.6% 67.7% +22.5%
60-80 470+21.3% +14.6% 75.3% +12.2%
80-100 You are here337+50.3% +61.9% 74.5% +0.5%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 26.12, at the 87.4th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+15%
Win rate 62.6% Excess +8.5%
666d
+20.3%
Win rate 69.2% Excess +15.1%
671d
Now
+16%
Win rate 62.5% Excess +0.7%
451d
60-day momentum down
+3.2%
Win rate 53.7% Excess -4.2%
615d
+1.8%
Win rate 54.4% Excess -2.9%
204d
+21.2%
Win rate 68.6% Excess -0.8%
306d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 451 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 16%, win rate 62.5%, beat the market by 0.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

29 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.35%, win rate 57.1%, beating the market by +6.63 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

64 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.9%, win rate 55.6%, beating the market by +3.12 pts on average.

What does 益登 do? Company profile

電子通路業、半導體零組件通路商 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

3048 對應證券為益登科技股份有限公司普通股，英文簡稱 EDOM，市場別為台灣證券交易所上市，產業別為電子通路。公司成立於 1996 年 7 月 11 日，上市日期為 2002 年 10 月 1 日，總部位於台北市內湖區基湖路10巷50號8樓。董事長為曾禹旖，總經理為于俊潔，發言人為黃秀玲。公開資料顯示實收資本額約新台幣 26.98 億元，已發行普通股約 269,829,794 股；公司官方投資人專區揭露員工總數為海內外 800 人以上。主要經營業務為代理銷售半導體零組件及相關研發業務。主要持股方面，公開股市資料顯示董事長曾禹旖持股約 27,766 千股，大聯大控股持股約 25,000 千股，劦越股份有限公司持股約 14,009 千股；董監事及內部人持股比率資料來源間略有差異，約落在 29% 至 38% 區間，應以公開資訊觀測站最新申報為準。公司定位為 IC 代理與解決方案設計夥伴，服務大中華區及東南亞客戶，官方投資人資料曾揭露 2022 年營收約 39.8 億美元、資本額約 8,700 萬美元。

Business

益登的商業模式是半導體與電子零組件代理、經銷及技術支援服務：向上游原廠取得授權代理或經銷產品線，向 OEM、ODM、EMS、系統廠、品牌廠及區域客戶銷售 IC、記憶體、感測器、射頻、電源、MCU、連接器、被動元件、測試量測與軟體等產品，並提供選型、設計導入、技術支援、供應鏈管理、通關運籌與部分佣金服務。依 MoneyDJ 彙整之 2024 年產品結構，積體電路約占營收 87%，記憶體約 5%，電子組件約 2%，其餘包含分散式元件、佣金收入等；2024 年主要銷售地區為中國大陸約 43%、台灣約 29%、香港約 8%、其他地區約 20%。主要產品包括 Skyworks 功率放大器與 RF/無線產品、Silicon Labs 混合訊號與物聯網相關晶片、STMicroelectronics 各類 IC、NAND 快閃記憶體、通訊用電子組件、檢測儀器、匯流排交換控制晶片及邏輯元件等。終端應用涵蓋 AI、資料中心、網通、物聯網、通訊、車用電子、工業自動化、可攜式與穿戴式裝置、消費性電子、醫療與節能科技。2024 年合併營收為新台幣 1,132.56 億元，年增約 5.65%，但因認列和碩仲裁案相關賠償準備約新台幣 10.17 億元，全年稅後淨損約新台幣 5.66 億元、EPS -2.10 元；若排除該仲裁因素，公司估算原可有稅後淨利約新台幣 2.63 億元。2025 年全年營收公開資料約新台幣 1,155.73 億元，年增約 2.05%，EPS 約 2.01 元。2026 年第一季受惠 AI 伺服器與網通設備需求，合併營收約新台幣 335.02 億元，年增約 17.21%、季增約 6.93%，稅後淨利約新台幣 3.30 億元，EPS 1.22 元，營收為單季歷史次高。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望以通路需求復甦、AI 與資料中心應用擴張、網通設備升級、物聯網與節能科技需求作為主要成長動能。公司 2025 年公告指出將關注 AI、智慧物聯網、節能技術，深耕資料中心、人工智慧、物聯網、電動車與節能科技；2026 年第一季公告進一步指出，AI 伺服器與網通設備需求攀升帶動營收寫下單季歷史次高，未來將持續拓展 AI、資料中心、物聯網、通訊與節能科技。中期而言，益登的機會在於：一、AI 伺服器、邊緣 AI、工業 AI 與資料中心高速網通帶動 IC、電源、記憶體、感測與通訊零組件出貨；二、車用電子、ADAS、電動車、工業自動化與節能應用增加半導體含量；三、代理線逾百家與跨區域技術支援能力可提高設計導入與客戶黏著度；四、若庫存與營運週期維持健康，通路商在景氣回升期可享有營收槓桿。主要風險包括：半導體景氣循環與客戶庫存調整、IC 通路毛利率偏低且競爭激烈、匯率與利率對財務成本及營運資金的影響、上游原廠直銷或代理權調整、終端需求不如預期、中美貿易與出口管制、AI 相關拉貨是否延續，以及和碩仲裁案等訴訟或或有負債後續變化。2027 至 2028 年公司未公布量化財測，合理研究假設是若 AI、資料中心、網通、車用與工業應用持續成長，益登營收可隨代理線與設計導入案擴大而受益；但獲利品質仍取決於產品組合、毛利率、存貨週轉、授信控管與財務成本。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • Skyworks Solutions 美國上市半導體原廠；益登為其授權代理商，代理 RF、無線、電源、時序、Broadcast & AV 等產品線。
  • STMicroelectronics 海外上市半導體原廠；公開資料列為益登主要代理線之一，供應各類積體電路、MCU、功率與感測相關產品。
  • Silicon Labs 美國上市半導體原廠；公開資料列為益登長期合作與代理產品線，產品應用於物聯網、混合訊號與無線連接。
  • Sony Semiconductor / Sony Group 日本上市集團與影像感測等半導體供應商；公開資料列為益登代理線之一。
  • Lattice Semiconductor 美國上市可程式邏輯半導體公司；公開資料列為益登代理線之一。
  • Microchip Technology 美國上市半導體公司；益登收購彥陽後補強 MCU、通訊與通用可程式產品線，公開資料提及彥陽主要代理 Microchip。
  • Qorvo 美國上市 RF 半導體公司；公開資料提及彥陽主要代理 Qorvo，與益登既有通訊/RF 產品線互補。
  • NVIDIA 美國上市 GPU、AI 與邊緣運算平台供應商；公開徵才與活動資料曾列為益登代理線或應用生態相關供應商，與 AI、資料中心、邊緣 AI 題材相關。
Downstream
  • 和碩聯合科技股份有限公司 4938 台股上市 ODM/EMS 廠；曾與益登發生產品異常權責仲裁案，顯示其為益登下游客戶或交易相對方之一。
  • OEM/ODM 製造商與系統整合客戶群 未完整公開客戶名單；益登官方說明其與 IC 生產鏈及 OEM/ODM 製造商合作，向資料中心、AI 伺服器、網通、物聯網、車用、工業、醫療與消費電子等應用客戶提供零組件與技術支援。
  • 大中華區與東南亞電子製造客戶 未上市或未具名客戶群；益登服務區域涵蓋台灣、中國大陸、香港與其他海外市場，2024 年中國大陸與台灣為主要銷售地區。

Competitors

Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.