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3526

凡甲 Electronic Components As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 凡甲 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 52Quality 94Growth 67Momentum 69Chips 79

Is 凡甲 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~95% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 7.9%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 39th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 72th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 5.5% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 22.1%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.73
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 美商高盛 holds 1,697 lots
  • sellers have 1,661 lots left, ~307 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +27% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 美商高盛 has accumulated 1,697 lots since the start (sold 1%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 凱基 peaked at 1,167 lots, has sold 26%, 859 left, ~307 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.34pp, mid holders +4, retail -5.25pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -22 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
美商高盛摩根大通台灣摩根士丹利新加坡商瑞銀凱基-台北華南永昌
Distributing
凱基元大證券統一永豐金證券兆豐證券國票-敦北法人
Desks
own scale
中國信託富邦證券香港上海匯豐玉山證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 美商高盛 +1,697
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +1,312
    sold 4%
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +1,190
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +855
    sold 19%
  • 凱基-台北 +801
    sold 22%
  • 華南永昌 +722
    sold 17%

Distributing

  • 凱基 859 left
    sold 26%· ~307 sessions to clear
  • 元大證券 491 left
    sold 46%· ~58 sessions to clear
  • 統一 48 left
    sold 88%· ~4 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金證券 132 left
    sold 57%· ~15 sessions to clear
  • 兆豐證券 70 left
    sold 76%· paused recently
  • 國票-敦北法人 103 left
    sold 28%· paused recently

Desks

  • 中國信託 -1,037
    unclassified
  • 富邦證券 -718
    unclassified
  • 香港上海匯豐 -375
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 玉山證券 -242
    unclassified
Still selling 1,661 lots ~307 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +841 absorbed / -418 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 22.06%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

75 historical occurrences (since 2007-11-02)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 63.5%, Sample 63, Median +2.88%, Excess +2.35%, Beat mkt rate 54%；60-day: Win 56.5%, Sample 62, Median +1.51%, Excess +5.66%, Beat mkt rate 48.4%；120-day: Win 59%, Sample 61, Median +6.44%, Excess +5.91%, Beat mkt rate 54.1%

120 days after: historical avg +12.58%

20-day +3.53%
60-day +8.48%
120-day +12.58%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
63.5%
56.5%
59%
Sample
63
62
61
Median
+2.88%
+1.51%
+6.44%
Excess
+2.35%
+5.66%
+5.91%
Beat mkt rate
54%
48.4%
54.1%

Over 61 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 12.58%, beat the market by 5.91 pts; win rate 59%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 231+66.2% +65.7% 100% +40.1%
20-40 544+41.5% +37.5% 89.3% +13.8%
40-60 529+20.5% +17.1% 69.2% +4.4%
60-80 You are here1106+28.8% +8.3% 60.5% +15.4%
80-100 500+40.2% +13.9% 56.2% +28.7%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 18.02, at the 71.6th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+26.1%
Win rate 99.5% Excess +16.7%
193d
+11.1%
Win rate 67.3% Excess -1.6%
584d
Now
+19.3%
Win rate 60.2% Excess +13.7%
972d
60-day momentum down
+24.6%
Win rate 91.9% Excess +8.2%
395d
+8.2%
Win rate 64.8% Excess 0%
477d
+5.9%
Win rate 38.4% Excess +1.9%
409d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 972 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 19.3%, win rate 60.2%, beat the market by 13.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

29 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.02%, win rate 64.3%, beating the market by +3.27 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

56 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.35%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +0.32 pts on average.

What does 凡甲 do? Company profile

電子零組件業；連接器 上櫃（櫃買中心）

Overview

凡甲科技股份有限公司為台灣上櫃普通股，股票代號3526，英文名ALLTOP TECHNOLOGY CO., LTD.。公司成立於1998年11月6日，2006年8月1日公開發行、2006年11月10日興櫃、2007年11月2日上櫃；總部位於新北市中和區中山路三段102號3樓。董事長為游萬益，總經理為張一偉，發言人為陳忠毅。依Goodinfo與公開資料，實收資本額約新台幣6.59億元，已發行普通股約65,850,865股；2024年永續報告書揭露2024年底台北總公司80名正職員工、蘇州廠587名正職員工，合計667名，另有承包商44名。主要營運據點包括台北總公司、凡甲電子（蘇州）有限公司、ALLTOP TECHNOLOGY（VIETNAM）CO., LTD.；公司官網列示全球據點12個。主要股東方面，強茂於2021年公開收購凡甲約20%股權並進入董事會；後續公開資訊與股權資料顯示強茂仍為重要大股東，約19%上下，另有民玖投資、禾沅投資、延華投資等法人董事或主要持股者。

Business

凡甲為專業連接器製造商，主要研發、產製、銷售電子連接器、連接線及零組件，並從事相關進出口貿易。依公司官網與永續報告書，終端應用包含伺服器、汽車、筆記型電腦、工業電腦、網通設備、醫療設備等連接器及高速連接線；產品線包含Server High Power Connector、High Power Cable、High Speed Connector、High Speed Cable、Automotive、Consumer Devices。2024年永續報告書揭露主要產品種類為連接器，2024年度營業收入新台幣3,211,246千元、營業比重100%；Yahoo股市月營收資料顯示2025全年合併營收約新台幣3,926,508千元、年增22.11%。依2025年法說會新聞，2025年第3季伺服器營收占比約50%至55%，車用約30%至35%，其餘為NB、消費、工控、網通、醫療等成熟或其他應用。商業模式以客製化、高頻高速、高功率連接器設計與量產為核心，透過設計導入、認證、試產、量產與長期供貨服務CSP、伺服器ODM、車廠及電池管理系統相關客戶。公司競爭優勢包含完整產品線、快速研發打樣、產品差異化、品質管理、交期彈性與長期客戶關係。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年成長動能主要來自AI伺服器高功率與高速連接器、高速線，以及新能源車BMS與車用連接器。2025年法說會新聞指出，凡甲AI伺服器連接器、高速線已陸續進入認證與試產，PCIe 6.0高速連接線研發接近完成，GB系列相關連接器已有試產；公司管理層對2026年營運審慎樂觀。2026年新聞報導指出伺服器產品占比約55%，法人估計伺服器應用營收有望年增約三成，且公司已打入部分400VDC供應鏈。中長期來看，AI伺服器功耗提升、資料中心高壓直流與高密度供電架構、GPU/ASIC平台迭代，將推升高電流、低溫升、低阻抗、高可靠度連接器需求；雲端CSP資本支出若延續，凡甲可受惠於高規格產品ASP與毛利率。車用方面，中國新能源車反內卷、歐系與中國自主品牌新平台、BMS與高壓電源管理需求，可支撐2026至2028車用連接器放量；越南廠2024年量產後可因應客戶去中國化要求，蘇州二廠或擴產規劃則可補充車用與伺服器產能。主要風險包括：CSP資本支出遞延、AI伺服器平台規格變動導致認證時程延後、車市價格競爭壓縮供應鏈報價、銅材與貴金屬電鍍材料價格波動、人民幣與美元匯率、客戶集中度、越南與蘇州擴產稼動率不如預期、國際同業與台廠在高功率/高速連接器的競爭。2027至2028屬推估期間，需持續追蹤月營收、產品占比、法說會、資本支出與主要客戶量產時程。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 銅合金／磷青銅／黃銅材料供應商 連接器端子主要原料；財報狗與產業資料指出連接器上游以銅合金金屬、電鍍液、塑膠材料為主，但凡甲未公開完整直接供應商名單。
  • 電鍍材料與加工供應商 連接器端子常用鍍金、鍍錫等電鍍材料與製程；屬產業上游，未確認凡甲直接供應商。
  • 工程塑膠材料供應商 連接器外殼常用PBT、PPS、Nylon、LCP等塑膠材料；屬產業上游，未確認凡甲直接供應商。
  • 模具、沖壓、射出與自動化設備供應商 凡甲產品需精密沖壓、塑膠射出、組裝與檢測設備；未公開具名直接供應商。
  • 強茂股份有限公司 2481 凡甲重要股東，2021年公開收購約20%股權；雙方皆布局伺服器、車用、工控、通訊等高階領域。非傳統原料上游，列為策略股東與潛在資源協同關係。
Downstream
  • Google 新聞報導列為凡甲伺服器CSP客戶；美國大型雲端服務商，非台股掛牌。
  • Amazon／AWS 新聞報導列為凡甲伺服器CSP客戶；美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • Meta 新聞報導列為凡甲伺服器CSP客戶；美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • Microsoft 新聞報導列為凡甲伺服器CSP客戶；美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 阿里巴巴 新聞報導列為凡甲中國大陸CSP客戶；港美上市，非台股掛牌。
  • 騰訊 新聞報導列為凡甲中國大陸CSP客戶；香港上市，非台股掛牌。
  • 百度 新聞報導列為凡甲中國大陸CSP客戶；港美上市，非台股掛牌。
  • 比亞迪 新聞報導列為凡甲新能源車客戶；香港與中國上市，非台股掛牌。
  • 奧迪／福斯集團 新聞報導列為凡甲新能源車相關客戶；歐洲車廠，非台股掛牌。
  • BMW 新聞報導列為凡甲新能源車相關客戶；德國上市，非台股掛牌。
  • 鴻海精密工業股份有限公司 2317 市場報導列為台灣AI伺服器ODM供應鏈合作對象之一；實際供貨料號與占比未由凡甲逐項揭露。
  • 廣達電腦股份有限公司 2382 公司里程紀事曾揭露通過廣達評鑑；市場報導亦列為AI伺服器ODM供應鏈合作對象之一。
  • 英業達股份有限公司 2356 公司里程紀事曾揭露通過英業達集團評鑑；市場報導列為AI伺服器ODM供應鏈合作對象之一。
  • 緯創資通股份有限公司 3231 市場報導列為台灣AI伺服器ODM供應鏈合作對象之一；實際供貨料號與占比未由凡甲逐項揭露。

Competitors

Sources（21）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.