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4139
quality needs a look, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 馬光-KY a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 16th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -6.5%.
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Valuation is high.PE is in the 83th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 36th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.0% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price 0% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 元大-南屯 has accumulated 122 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
- Main distributor 元大-員林中山 peaked at 21 lots, has sold 48%, 11 left, ~11 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.00pp, mid holders +0, retail -0.22pp — little change.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -29 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 元大-南屯 +122
- 永豐金-屏東 +116
- 元大-東港 +60
- 富邦-高雄 +58
- 中國信託-文心 +53
- 永豐金證券 +40
Distributing
- 元大-員林中山 11 left
- 玉山-大里 9 left
- 元大-屏東民生 9 left
- 元大-旗山 3 left
- 永豐金-羅東 2 left
- 大昌-新店 1 left
Desks
- 統一-士林 -76
- 凱基-東港 -48
- 國票-天祥 -45
- 永豐金-板新 -39
Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 447 | -2.1% | -6.6% | 30.4% | -27.1% |
| 20-40 You are here | 168 | +4.1% | -0.2% | 47.6% | +6.9% |
| 40-60 | 255 | -25.6% | -34.4% | 13.3% | -56.2% |
| 60-80 | 252 | 0% | -16.2% | 44.4% | -43.6% |
| 80-100 | 231 | -3.5% | -3.7% | 42.9% | -20.9% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 50.53, at the 35.9th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum down”: across 238 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 4.5%, win rate 28.2%, lagged the market by 12%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
11 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.88%, win rate 36.4%, beating the market by -5.24 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
47 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.4%, win rate 40.4%, beating the market by -1.67 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
12 times historically; 60-day forward avg -3.04%, win rate 36.4%, beating the market by -5.62 pts on average.
What does 馬光-KY do? Company profile
Overview
4139 對應證券為上櫃普通股「馬光-KY」，公司全名為馬光保健控股股份有限公司，英文名 MA KUANG HEALTHCARE HOLDING LIMITED，註冊地為英屬開曼群島，台灣聯絡地址為高雄市鼓山區明誠三路693號4樓。前身為1999年9月於新加坡設立的馬光中醫，2009年7月於開曼群島重組設立投資控股公司，2011年4月29日上櫃。櫃買中心最新基本資料顯示董事長為福苓興業有限公司代表人巫雲光，總經理與發言人為于倩，電話為07-555-0864，產品類別為生技醫療，主要經營業務為連鎖中醫、連鎖社區醫療、中藥材、醫療培訓及教育。櫃買中心115年第1季資料顯示股本為新台幣450,099仟元；2024年年報顯示2024年底員工491人。2025年4月21日前十大股東包括元大商業銀行受託保管佑安投資股份有限公司5,431,117股、12.76%，黃奕睿4,014,079股、9.43%，JUI WEI INVESTMENTS PTE LTD. 2,476,752股、5.82%，李兆嘉4.72%，李兆文4.55%，薛如妏4.37%，黃傳勝4.32%，黃博聞2.30%，莊孝彰2.16%，莊雅惠2.00%。
Business
公司為跨國連鎖醫療服務與中醫保健集團，主要營運地為新加坡、天津與台灣。2024年營收淨額為新台幣1,130,262仟元，其中新加坡連鎖中醫666,048仟元、58.93%，天津連鎖社區醫療342,465仟元、30.30%，新加坡醫管培訓及教育80,763仟元、7.14%，其他40,986仟元、3.63%；按地區，新加坡66.07%，中國大陸30.30%，台灣3.63%。新加坡事業提供中醫問診、針灸、推拿、骨傷專科、中醫美容、婦幼專科、中藥材與保健品銷售、保健品電商，並經營黃耀南中藥行；截至2024年底擁有17家連鎖中醫診所、8間骨傷專科診所、4家婦幼專科診所及1間黃耀南藥鋪。天津事業提供中西醫綜合門診，服務含西醫內科、中醫科、口腔科、檢驗科、糖尿病與中風後慢病管理，截至2024年底為12個中西醫綜合門診。商業模式以自營連鎖診所提供自費或醫保相關醫療服務、藥材與保健品銷售、教育培訓與住宿管理收入為主；下游客戶多為一般消費大眾，年報揭露除銷售給台灣馬光醫療網科學中藥約占整體營收5%左右外，沒有單一客戶占營收超過10%。2025全年營收約新台幣1,092,508仟元，EPS -1.55元；2026年第1季營收254,096仟元，EPS -0.55元；2026年前5月合併營收442,244仟元，年減0.96%，5月單月96,282仟元，年增6.18%。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028年成長動能主要來自新加坡與東南亞中醫連鎖擴張、馬來西亞中醫診所市場、保健品與電商、自有診所店中店，以及天津互聯網醫療與慢病管理服務。公司2024年報揭露，2025年上半年已規劃跨足馬來西亞中醫診所市場，新加坡將持續增設診所並發展保健品電商；天津則因政策因素精簡社區醫療門診規模，關閉虧損門診、保留獲利據點，並運用互聯網醫療線上看診資格擴大服務範圍。產業趨勢上，高齡化、慢性病管理、預防醫學、亞健康保健品、自費醫療與華人中醫接受度提升，均有利於新加坡與東南亞市場；天津市場則取決於醫保政策、民營醫療監管、線上醫療核准與收款效率。短中期挑戰包括2025全年與2026年前5月營收仍偏弱、2025全年及2026年第1季虧損、天津醫保與政策變動、醫師流動、醫療糾紛、匯率、海外法規與開曼KY架構股東權益差異。2026至2028沒有查得公司公開逐年財測，因此不能推估具體營收或EPS；較合理的觀察指標為新加坡同店成長與新據點獲利、馬來西亞展店速度、天津精簡後虧損收斂、毛利率與營業利益率是否回升、保健品電商占比、醫師留任與客訴醫療風險。
Supply Chain
- 科學中藥、西藥、中成藥、中草藥與醫療耗材供應商 年報揭露主要進貨品項包括科學中藥、西藥、中成藥、中草藥、保健產品與醫療耗材；2024年前三大供應商以A/B/C/D廠商匿名揭露，未揭露可辨識公司名稱，故stock_id設為null。
- 中國政府藥品集中採購與第三方藥品供貨商 天津門診使用與販售藥品依中國政府藥品監督管理部門集中採購、統一招標形成藥品目錄與價格，再由第三方藥品供貨商依門診需求供貨；非台股掛牌公司。
- 長期合作藥品與保健食品供應商 公司年報稱醫療用藥與保健食品由合作二十多年的供應商及醫務部門把關，但未揭露名稱；非可確認台股掛牌公司。
- 一般消費大眾與社區居民 主要下游客戶為新加坡中醫門診、天津社區醫療、慢病管理與保健品消費者；年報稱個別客戶消費金額占比低，無單一客戶占營收超過10%。
- 台灣馬光醫療網 公司銷售科學中藥給台灣馬光醫療網，約占整體營收5%左右；未查得其為台股上市櫃公司。
- 新加坡醫療管理培訓與海外學生住宿客戶 新加坡醫管培訓及教育為2024年營收7.14%，客戶包含醫療管理培訓學員與海外住宿管理服務對象；非單一上市櫃客戶。
Competitors
- 大學光 3218 台股上櫃公司，眼科醫療服務與醫材通路，屬醫療服務相近同業，StockFeel列為馬光-KY競爭對手。
- 青松健康 6931 台股上市公司，長期照顧服務，屬醫療照護服務相近同業，StockFeel列為馬光-KY競爭對手。
- 佳醫 4104 台股上市公司，醫療健康相關服務、通路與長照等業務，與馬光-KY在醫療服務與健康照護領域部分重疊。
- 盛弘 8403 台股上櫃公司，醫療管理、醫護人力、醫藥衛材供應與遠距健康照護等，與馬光-KY在醫療服務管理與健康照護領域部分重疊。
- 余仁生 新加坡及區域中藥與保健品牌，非台股掛牌；年報列為新加坡中醫與中藥市場競爭者之一。
- 心蕊中醫、亞洲中醫、慈善中醫診所、公立醫院附屬中醫門診 新加坡當地中醫門診競爭者或替代服務，非台股上市櫃公司。
Sources（9）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.