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4162

智擎 Biotech & Healthcare As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 智擎 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 61Quality 82Growth 84Momentum 21Chips 82

Is 智擎 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~99% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.8%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 43th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 17th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 6.5% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 51.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.32
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 holds 1,083 lots
  • sellers have 268 lots left, ~78 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -20% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 1,083 lots since the start (sold 9%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 港商野村 peaked at 154 lots, has sold 84%, 24 left, ~10 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.12pp, mid holders +2, retail -0.29pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -679 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛臺銀摩根大通台新香港上海匯豐
Distributing
港商野村富邦證券富邦-陽明永豐金-市政元大-楊梅富邦-中壢
Desks
own scale
永豐金-新竹群益金鼎-三重凱基-台北新加坡商瑞銀
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +1,083
    sold 9%
  • 美商高盛 +923
    sold 3%· still adding
  • 臺銀 +638
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +465
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台新 +434
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 香港上海匯豐 +176
    sold 21%

Distributing

  • 港商野村 24 left
    sold 84%· ~10 sessions to clear
  • 富邦證券 79 left
    sold 28%· paused recently
  • 富邦-陽明 35 left
    sold 53%· ~9 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金-市政 35 left
    sold 47%· ~11 sessions to clear
  • 元大-楊梅 39 left
    sold 37%· ~78 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-中壢 35 left
    sold 43%· ~50 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 永豐金-新竹 -2,079
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎-三重 -517
    unclassified
  • 凱基-台北 -338
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -323
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 268 lots ~78 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,526 absorbed / -190 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -323 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 51.88%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

63 historical occurrences (since 2014-10-13)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 51.6%, Sample 62, Median +0.98%, Excess 0%, Beat mkt rate 38.7%；60-day: Win 35.5%, Sample 62, Median -4.37%, Excess -4.05%, Beat mkt rate 32.3%；120-day: Win 41%, Sample 61, Median -6.91%, Excess -11.67%, Beat mkt rate 24.6%

120 days after: historical avg -3.44%

20-day +1.43%
60-day -0.14%
120-day -3.44%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
51.6%
35.5%
41%
Sample
62
62
61
Median
+0.98%
-4.37%
-6.91%
Excess
0%
-4.05%
-11.67%
Beat mkt rate
38.7%
32.3%
24.6%

Over 61 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 3.44%, lagged the market by 11.67 pts; win rate 41%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here742+4.8% -17.5% 38.5% -5.5%
20-40 521-11.2% -12.2% 22.1% -34.1%
40-60 315-10% -10.6% 17.1% -29.6%
60-80 282-0.8% -8.2% 36.9% -34.7%
80-100 96+0.4% -1.5% 45.8% -32%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 19.55, at the 17.1th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+1.7%
Win rate 37.8% Excess 0%
439d
-16.6%
Win rate 8.2% Excess -31.9%
207d
-20.4%
Win rate 5.6% Excess -41.9%
90d
60-day momentum down
Now
+2.1%
Win rate 38% Excess -7.6%
744d
-7.3%
Win rate 37.3% Excess -16%
434d
+20%
Win rate 95.4% Excess -5.4%
152d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 744 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 2.1%, win rate 38%, lagged the market by 7.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

8 times historically; 60-day forward avg -18.08%, win rate 0%, beating the market by -16.24 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

57 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.01%, win rate 44.4%, beating the market by -0.37 pts on average.

What does 智擎 do? Company profile

生技醫療業；癌症新藥開發與授權 櫃買中心上櫃

Overview

4162 對應證券為智擎，櫃買中心掛牌之普通股。公司成立於2002年8月12日，2003年2月開始營運，2012年9月18日上櫃；總部位於台北市中山區民生東路三段10號11樓。董事長許璋瑤，總經理王宏仁，發言人張麒星。實收資本額約新台幣1,456,776,400元，已發行普通股約145,677,640股；2024年報/永續報告揭露員工數33人、營運據點1個。主要法人股東與董事席次關係包括台灣東洋藥品工業股份有限公司、行政院國家發展基金管理會、全球人壽保險股份有限公司等；台灣東洋同時為董事席次代表法人，國發基金亦有董事代表。公司採Virtual Pharmaceutical Company Business Model，無自有大規模廠端資產與倉庫，核心在癌症新藥授權引進、臨床開發、專案管理、授權輸出與台灣市場商業化。2025年公司簡報揭露ONIVYDE台灣銷售收入約新台幣2.771億元、歐亞銷售權利金收入約6.278億元、里程碑/授權金收入約652.1萬元，合計營收約9.114億元，較2024年因里程碑金高基期而年減約63.9%。

Business

智擎核心產品為安能得 ONIVYDE，為奈米微脂體 irinotecan 製劑、第一型DNA拓撲異構酶抑制劑，用於轉移性胰腺癌；已於美國、歐洲、台灣、韓國、新加坡、日本、中國等多國上市。ONIVYDE在亞洲台灣以外及歐洲地區之製造、開發、產品化及銷售等權利已授權予法國Ipsen，台灣由智擎自行銷售；公司收入來源主要包括台灣銷售收入、歐亞權利金、里程碑金/再授權金。2025年2月公告ONIVYDE 2024年度歐亞淨銷售額達第二期銷售里程碑，收取美金5,000萬元授權金；2025年12月1日起，安能得納入台灣一線合併療法治療轉移性胰腺癌健保給付。研發管線包括PEP07，為向英國Sentinel Oncology取得全球開發、製造及商品化權利之CHK1 inhibitor，定位於DNA損傷反應相關之口服小分子藥物，進行血液腫瘤與實體腫瘤一期臨床；PEP08為智擎首個自主研發、AI/CADD輔助探索之第二代PRMT5:MTA inhibitor，鎖定MTAP缺失癌症，2025年已取得澳洲與台灣臨床核准並完成首位實體腫瘤病患投藥。另與Shanghai RMX Biopharma及Daehwa Pharmaceutical合作，取得LIPORAXEL口服紫杉醇於台灣銷售權，屬新劑型抗癌藥商業化布局。公司主要終端應用為胰臟癌、血液腫瘤、實體腫瘤、MTAP缺失腫瘤與精準癌症治療；直接通路包含台灣醫院/腫瘤科治療體系、藥品配送通路及國際授權夥伴。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年核心展望可分為三條主線。第一，ONIVYDE現金流仍是基礎：2025年雖因2024年一次性里程碑金高基期導致營收年減，但歐亞銷售權利金年增約15.5%，且一線胰腺癌合併療法在歐洲多國上市、台灣健保自2025年12月1日起納入一線給付，應有助於2026後台灣用量與歐亞權利金穩定。第二，PEP07與PEP08進入臨床價值驗證期：公司2026年3月法說簡報稱PEP07一期臨床於2025年底陸續完成最大耐受劑量確認、即將進入擴展階段；展望圖顯示PEP07於2026至2028年目標從Expansion推進至Phase II/III。PEP08已於2025年進入一期臨床，展望圖顯示2026至2028年由Phase I往Expansion與後續Phase II/III推進。第三，公司策略從單一授權產品逐步轉向癌症精準治療管線，聚焦DNA損傷反應DDR與合成致死SL，並以AI-driven drug discovery拓展PEP08、PEP10及後續候選藥物。主要產業順風包括全球藥品市場至2028年維持成長、精準醫療/AI藥物探索、胰臟癌未滿足醫療需求，以及大型藥廠對臨床階段癌症資產的授權需求。主要風險包括新藥臨床失敗或延遲、健保與各國藥價管制、ONIVYDE權利金集中與里程碑收入波動、Ipsen銷售表現依賴、授權/經銷合約依賴、外匯波動、臨床與CRO/CDMO成本上升，以及PEP07/PEP08仍處早期臨床、2028前實質商業化收入不確定。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • Ipsen S.A. 法國上市藥廠；承接PEP02/ONIVYDE亞洲台灣以外及歐洲地區製造、開發、商品化及銷售權，也是智擎台灣市場ONIVYDE藥品供應來源；2023、2024年年報揭露主要進貨供應商100%為Ipsen。
  • Sentinel Oncology Limited 英國未上市/非台股公司；PEP07原始技術與授權合作方，智擎取得PEP07全球研究、開發、製造及商品化權利並負責後續研發資金。
  • Daehwa Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. 韓國製藥公司、非台股；LIPORAXEL口服紫杉醇產品生產方，智擎透過經銷安排布局台灣銷售。
  • Shanghai RMX Biopharma Co., Ltd. 中國生技公司、非台股；與智擎就LIPORAXEL於台灣地區銷售簽署經銷相關安排。
  • CRO/CDMO合作夥伴 公司採virtual pharma模式，臨床前、臨床、委託研究與委託生產依不同專案委外；年報未完整揭露所有供應商名稱。
Downstream
  • 裕利股份有限公司 台灣藥品通路/配送公司，未上市；2023、2024年年報揭露為主要銷貨客戶，銷貨淨額占比100%，推估主要承接台灣市場醫院通路配送。
  • Ipsen S.A. 法國上市藥廠；ONIVYDE台灣以外亞洲與歐洲市場授權實施方，對智擎貢獻歐亞銷售權利金及里程碑金。
  • 台灣醫院與腫瘤科治療體系 終端使用通路與受惠者為轉移性胰腺癌等癌症病患；非單一掛牌公司。
  • 海外胰腺癌治療市場 由Ipsen及其各地商業化網絡觸達歐洲、亞洲等市場，智擎主要透過權利金與里程碑金分享經濟利益。

Competitors

  • 藥華藥 6446 台股上櫃生技公司，具血液腫瘤/罕病藥物商業化經驗；與智擎同屬台灣新藥開發與國際化商業模式代表，但產品機轉與適應症不同。
  • 浩鼎 4174 台股上櫃癌症免疫治療/抗體新藥公司，屬台灣癌症新藥研發同業。
  • 醣聯 4168 台股上櫃癌症抗體與醣生物相關新藥研發公司，屬腫瘤新藥研發同業。
  • 生華科 6492 台股上櫃新藥公司，布局DNA損傷反應與癌症治療相關藥物，與PEP07所屬DDR領域具一定可比性。
  • 逸達 6576 台股上櫃新藥公司，聚焦前列腺癌等特殊劑型/長效釋放治療，屬癌症藥物開發同業。
  • 台康生技 6589 台股上櫃生技公司，布局癌症相關生物相似藥與抗體藥物；與智擎同在腫瘤用藥市場但商業模式偏生物藥製造與開發。
  • Eli Lilly / Gemzar及gemcitabine合併療法相關供應商 非台股；gemcitabine及其合併療法為轉移性胰腺癌主要既有治療選項，年報列為ONIVYDE台灣市場競爭療法之一。
  • Bristol Myers Squibb / Celgene / Abraxane相關療法 非台股；nab-paclitaxel加gemcitabine為一線轉移性胰腺癌常用方案，為ONIVYDE一線合併療法在臨床與給付市場的主要比較/競爭療法之一。
Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.