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4527

方方土霖 Electric Machinery As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 方方土霖 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 78Quality 64Growth 80Momentum 44Chips 10

Is 方方土霖 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 63th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.8%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 12th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 48th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -5.3% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 40.1%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.84
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 統一-東湖 holds 474 lots
  • sellers have 32 lots left, ~30 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +2% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 統一-東湖 has accumulated 474 lots since the start (sold 1%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 元大-小港 peaked at 41 lots, has sold 88%, 5 left, ~17 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.08pp, mid holders +1, retail -1.48pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -93 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
統一-東湖凱基-岡山華南永昌-高雄兆豐-桃鶯美商高盛新光-台南
Distributing
元大-小港元大-楊梅土銀-新竹華南永昌-內壢第一金-新興玉山-台南
Desks
own scale
富邦-高雄華南永昌-淡水台新-高雄日進
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 統一-東湖 +474
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 凱基-岡山 +141
    sold 12%· still adding
  • 華南永昌-高雄 +101
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 兆豐-桃鶯 +81
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +48
    sold 2%
  • 新光-台南 +47
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 元大-小港 5 left
    sold 88%· ~17 sessions to clear
  • 元大-楊梅 13 left
    sold 38%· paused recently
  • 土銀-新竹 10 left
    sold 50%· ~10 sessions to clear
  • 華南永昌-內壢 7 left
    sold 63%· paused recently
  • 第一金-新興 1 left
    sold 88%· paused recently
  • 玉山-台南 3 left
    sold 63%· ~6 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 富邦-高雄 -105
    unclassified
  • 華南永昌-淡水 -98
    unclassified
  • 台新-高雄 -84
    unclassified
  • 日進 -70
    unclassified
Still selling 32 lots ~30 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +241 absorbed / -31 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 40.07%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

73 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 60.6%, Sample 66, Median +1.48%, Excess -0.18%, Beat mkt rate 45.5%；60-day: Win 67.7%, Sample 65, Median +5.34%, Excess +0.15%, Beat mkt rate 50.8%；120-day: Win 70.8%, Sample 65, Median +5.93%, Excess +0.32%, Beat mkt rate 56.9%

120 days after: historical avg +7.6%

20-day +1.18%
60-day +4.61%
120-day +7.6%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
60.6%
67.7%
70.8%
Sample
66
65
65
Median
+1.48%
+5.34%
+5.93%
Excess
-0.18%
+0.15%
+0.32%
Beat mkt rate
45.5%
50.8%
56.9%

Over 65 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.6%, beat the market by 0.32 pts; win rate 70.8%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 345+17.4% +12.5% 88.7% -3%
20-40 970+15.5% +4.7% 63.2% -0.7%
40-60 You are here1040+11.7% +3.1% 60.2% -7%
60-80 679+19% +20.4% 93.1% +7.7%
80-100 9Insufficient data

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 11.68, at the 47.6th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+8.4%
Win rate 77.5% Excess -1.9%
463d
Now
+8.4%
Win rate 64.2% Excess +0.4%
1243d
+9.4%
Win rate 84.3% Excess +4.9%
370d
60-day momentum down
+6.9%
Win rate 64.4% Excess -0.7%
475d
+2%
Win rate 53.2% Excess -8.7%
523d
+10.9%
Win rate 98.7% Excess -2.5%
78d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 1243 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 8.4%, win rate 64.2%, beat the market by 0.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

42 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.53%, win rate 59.5%, beating the market by -1.43 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

21 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.79%, win rate 47.6%, beating the market by -7.3 pts on average.

What does 方方土霖 do? Company profile

電機機械；冷凍空調設備 上櫃

Overview

4527 為櫃買中心上櫃普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 1988-04-05，2000-09-28 上櫃，總部位於高雄市梓官區赤崁北路 300 號，工廠位於高雄市梓官區赤崁北路 336 號，另有台北營業所。董事長與總經理均為曾仲國，發言人為財務部協理蘇麗玲。公開資料顯示實收資本額約新台幣 7.615 億元、已發行普通股 76,152,370 股；2026 年 3 月董事會決議辦理現金減資 76,152,370 元、消除股份 7,615,237 股，原因為提升股東權益報酬率，實際完成狀態須以後續公告為準。2024 年底主要股東持股 5% 以上者為東元電機 14.28%、柯文吉 5.79%；2025-03-28 年報主要股東名單列東元電機 14.01%、柯文吉 5.80%、恩泓投資 4.14%、點將家投資 3.73%、葉榮濱 3.49%、伽倫投資 3.36%、曾仲國 3.18%、鉅坤投資 3.15%、文吉投資 2.93%、竤昇投資 2.58%。截至 2025-03-31 集團員工 575 人，其中職員 313 人、作業員 262 人。2024 年合併營收 36.49379 億元、EPS 4.20 元；2024 年盈餘分配案每股現金股利 3.2 元。

Business

公司為冷凍空調設備製造商，主要營業項目包括冷凍空調設備製造、冷凍空調工程、機械設備製造、機械安裝、國際貿易、能源技術服務、配管與自動控制工程等。2024 年產品營收結構為冰水機組 20.97894 億元、占 57.49%；冷凝機組 0.21415 億元、占 0.59%；維修收入 2.68021 億元、占 7.34%；工程 3.36791 億元、占 9.23%；風機盤管及末端 3.46930 億元、占 9.51%；其他 4.93040 億元、占 13.51%。主要產品包含離心式、滿液式、乾式、氣冷式、水冷式與直流變頻離心式冰水機，水源熱泵、氣源式熱水機、電腦房箱型機、冷凝機、通風與冷凍設備、船用設備、熱交換器、真空凍結乾燥機、儲冰槽、製冰機與冷凝器自動清洗機；服務則包含冷凍冷藏系統規劃設計施工、監控系統、儲冰系統、機房空調、冰水機設備保全服務與工程專案管理。商業模式以自有品牌與 ODM/OEM 並行，銷售對象主要為 ODM/OEM 客戶與冷凍空調工程公司，下游終端應用涵蓋辦公大樓、商業廣場、百貨賣場、飯店、醫院、學校、機場、高科技廠房、一般製造業、食品加工與資料中心／機房空調等。2024 年區域營收為台灣 68.21%、中國大陸 28.66%、越南 2.63%、其他東南亞 0.50%。公司在 2024 年中央系統冰水機以個體銷值計之台灣市占率約 40.81%，銷售量市占率約 27.26%；其產品競爭優勢包括系列產品齊全、設計圖庫完整、品質與交期。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望以節能汰換、低碳法規、台灣廠辦與高科技廠房投資、資料中心散熱、東南亞台商設廠，以及大型節能高效型冰水機比重提升為主要動能。公司年報預估 2025 年冰水機組銷售量 2,511 組，較 2024 年銷售量增加，主要因大型節能高效型機組比重較高；公司持續開發磁浮離心冰水機、微電腦人機、冷凍空調節能產品與高效能大型冰水機組。研發面，堃霖於 2004 年取得 Danfoss Turbocor 磁浮離心式壓縮機使用權，2022 年與復盛、寧茂共同進行 180RT 以下雙段磁浮離心機關鍵技術與驗證計畫，2023 年完成 1000RT 國產化磁浮離心式冰水機組並通過工研院測試。產品趨勢包括高效能大型冰水機、儲冰空調、IOT 智能主機與需量反應、低 ODP／低 GWP 冷媒機組；公司亦已推出 R-32、R-513A 等低 GWP 冷媒機組以配合淨零與冷媒限制。2025 年公司對台灣市場看法相對正向，但因部分設備提前於 2024 年第四季安裝認列，2025 年第一季被公司視為全年谷底，全年目標偏向力拚持平 2024 年；2026 年前 5 月累計營收約 10.83 億元、年增 8.84%，5 月單月營收 2.56273 億元、年增 40.08%，顯示 2026 年初營收已有回升跡象。海外方面，公司已設越南廠，2025 年規劃在泰國設立業務與服務據點，並於 2025-03-11 董事會通過直接對泰國地區投資案，目的為拓展海外市場、強化集團成長動能。主要風險包括中國房地產與內需疲弱、中國低價競爭者打入台灣與東南亞、進口壓縮機與冷凍材料受匯率波動影響、研發費用高、人工成本上升、缺工、通膨與地緣政治／貿易政策不確定性；公司因應方向為增加國內採購比重、分散供應來源、推動自動化、與國內外大廠及學研機構合作研發、強化售後服務與垂直整合。2027 至 2028 年未見公司正式量化財測，以上屬根據年報、法說與產業趨勢的定性推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • Danfoss 丹麥跨國零組件供應商；2024 年為堃霖第一大供應商，占進貨淨額 12%，並與磁浮離心式壓縮機技術相關。
  • 復盛 壓縮機供應商；2024 年占堃霖進貨淨額 7%。復盛品牌相關公司結構較複雜，未能確認此處交易主體是否為台股掛牌公司，故 stock_id 設 null。
  • 漢鐘精機 4564 壓縮機供應商之一；年報列為壓縮機採購來源『漢鐘』，為台股上櫃公司。
  • Copeland 國外壓縮機供應商；年報列為壓縮機採購來源。
  • BITZER 德國壓縮機供應商；年報列為壓縮機採購來源。
  • 中誠 銅管／散熱盤管等材料供應商；2024 年占進貨淨額 8%，未確認為台股掛牌公司。
  • 新太銅 銅管供應商；2024 年占進貨淨額 7%，未確認為台股掛牌公司。
  • 堃霖冷凍機械（蘇州）有限公司 集團海外子公司，供應冰水器、冷凝器並與上海子公司有進貨交易；非台股掛牌公司。
Downstream
  • 東元電機 1504 主要股東與長期合作／ODM-OEM 客戶之一；媒體報導稱東元的部分冰水主機產品交由堃霖代工。
  • 台灣開利 冷凍空調國際品牌在台公司／客戶群之一；非台股掛牌公司。
  • 三菱 國際品牌客戶群之一；非台股掛牌公司。
  • 松下 國際品牌客戶群之一；非台股掛牌公司。
  • 中鋼 2002 公司公開徵才資料列示之主要客戶群之一；台股上市公司。
  • 約克 國際空調品牌客戶群之一；非台股掛牌公司。
  • 冷凍空調工程公司 主要通路／施工維修夥伴；負責面對辦公大樓、商業廣場、高科技工廠等終端使用者，非單一掛牌公司。
  • 堃霖冷氣空調股份有限公司 集團台灣子公司，商品銷售及貿易業務；2024 年母公司對其銷貨 11.82416 億元，占合併營收 32%，非台股掛牌公司。

Competitors

  • 東元電機 1504 年報列為國內產銷冰水機組競爭廠商之一；同時亦為堃霖主要股東與合作夥伴，具有競合關係。
  • 大同 2371 年報列為國內冰水機組競爭廠商之一。
  • 中興電工 1513 年報列為國內冰水機組競爭廠商之一。
  • 日立 外資空調品牌，年報列為競爭者；非台股掛牌公司。
  • 大金 日本空調品牌，年報列為競爭者；非台股掛牌公司。
  • 台灣開利 外資空調品牌在台公司，年報列為競爭者；非台股掛牌公司。
  • 詮宏 年報列為競爭者；未確認為台股掛牌公司。
  • 鑫國 年報列為國內競爭者；未確認為台股掛牌公司。
  • 力菱 年報列為國內競爭者；未確認為台股掛牌公司。
  • 揚帆 年報列為國內競爭者；未確認為台股掛牌公司。
  • 國祥 年報列為國內競爭者；未確認為台股掛牌公司。
  • 海爾 中國冰水機組與空調競爭者；非台股掛牌公司。
  • 美的 中國冰水機組與空調競爭者；非台股掛牌公司。
  • 格力 中國冰水機組與空調競爭者；非台股掛牌公司。
Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.