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4540

全球傳動 Electric Machinery As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 全球傳動 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 26Quality 19Growth 68Momentum 78Chips 12

Is 全球傳動 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 19th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -0.6%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 83th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 83th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -4.3% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 23.0%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.52
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 新光-新竹 holds 957 lots
  • sellers have 1,578 lots left, ~176 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +39% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 新光-新竹 has accumulated 957 lots since the start (sold 9%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 3,554 lots, has sold 85%, 523 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.18pp, mid holders -7, retail +6.13pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -615 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
新光-新竹國票-北高雄兆豐-北高雄凱基-中港華南永昌-台中合庫-新竹
Distributing
美商高盛新加坡商瑞銀港商野村台新國泰-敦南永豐金證券
Desks
own scale
富邦-台北富邦-虎尾玉山-台中元大-斗六
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 新光-新竹 +957
    sold 9%· still adding
  • 國票-北高雄 +549
    sold 0%
  • 兆豐-北高雄 +185
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-中港 +170
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 華南永昌-台中 +162
    sold 0%
  • 合庫-新竹 +146
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 523 left
    sold 85%· paused recently
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 721 left
    sold 71%· ~176 sessions to clear
  • 港商野村 904 left
    sold 53%· paused recently
  • 台新 179 left
    sold 89%· paused recently
  • 國泰-敦南 409 left
    sold 56%· paused recently
  • 永豐金證券 87 left
    sold 89%· ~24 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 富邦-台北 -2,844
    unclassified
  • 富邦-虎尾 -2,350
    unclassified
  • 玉山-台中 -1,022
    unclassified
  • 元大-斗六 -690
    unclassified
Still selling 1,578 lots ~176 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +996 absorbed / -679 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -565 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 22.96%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

57 historical occurrences (since 2018-08-15)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 43.8%, Sample 32, Median -2.53%, Excess -1.2%, Beat mkt rate 37.5%；60-day: Win 43.3%, Sample 30, Median -2.34%, Excess -5.32%, Beat mkt rate 33.3%；120-day: Win 42.9%, Sample 28, Median -5.7%, Excess -14.24%, Beat mkt rate 14.3%

120 days after: historical avg +2.48%

20-day +1.96%
60-day +2.87%
120-day +2.48%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
43.8%
43.3%
42.9%
Sample
32
30
28
Median
-2.53%
-2.34%
-5.7%
Excess
-1.2%
-5.32%
-14.24%
Beat mkt rate
37.5%
33.3%
14.3%

Over 28 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 2.48%, lagged the market by 14.24 pts; win rate 42.9%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 111-6.2% -7.2% 7.2% -29.3%
20-40 98-14.3% -14.4% 5.1% -31.3%
40-60 1Insufficient data
60-80 0Insufficient data
80-100 You are here0Insufficient data

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 52.54, at the 82.7th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-9.7%
Win rate 14.5% Excess -17.9%
76d
-19.4%
Win rate 0% Excess -26.9%
51d
Now
Insufficient data
(0d)
60-day momentum down
+3.3%
Win rate 56.9% Excess -5.5%
123d
-13.8%
Win rate 3.3% Excess -20%
60d
Insufficient data
(20d)

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

26 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.24%, win rate 40%, beating the market by -5.39 pts on average.

What does 全球傳動 do? Company profile

電機機械；精密線性傳動元件 上市（台灣證券交易所）

Overview

全球傳動科技股份有限公司為台灣上市普通股，股票代號4540，英文簡稱 TBI MOTION。公司設立於2010年7月9日，2018年8月15日掛牌上市，營業總部位於新北市樹林區三多路123號。董事長為李清崑，總經理為李進勝，發言人為江文隆。公司主要從事滾珠螺桿、線性滑軌、滾珠花鍵、旋轉系列、單軸機器人及相關傳動元件之製造與銷售。資本額約新台幣11.31億元；公司2025年12月30日法說會列示員工人數1,081人（截至2025年11月30日），2024年年報列示2025年4月30日員工911人。主要子公司包括台灣全傳智能科技股份有限公司、美國 TBI MOTION TECHNOLOGY(USA) LLC、中國全傳科技（蘇州）有限公司及全傳科技（江蘇）有限公司。2024年年報揭露主要股東（2025年4月28日）包括鼎捷投資6.20%、德億投資5.11%、超揚投資2.80%、全球滾珠科技2.68%、李進勝2.32%、德章投資1.95%、中盈投資開發1.76%、富山國際投資1.33%、王富美1.31%、沈旻勳1.15%。

Business

公司定位為精密線性傳動元件供應商，核心產品為滾珠螺桿、線性滑軌與滾珠花鍵。2024年產品營收結構為滾珠螺桿新台幣14.63億元、占63.77%；線性滑軌7.02億元、占30.60%；滾珠花鍵1.14億元、占4.99%；其他0.15億元、占0.64%。2025年法說資料顯示，2025年第3季產品比重約為滾珠螺桿57%、線性滑軌37%、滾珠花鍵5%、其他1%，線性滑軌比重較過往提高。2024年銷售地區以外銷為主，占93.98%，其中亞洲占88.35%、歐洲3.92%、其他1.71%，內銷占6.02%；2025年法說資料顯示中國大陸仍為最大區域市場，2025年第3季占79%，台灣8%、亞洲8%、歐洲4%、美國1%。公司商業模式以標準品與客製化精密零組件銷售、經銷體系與直接客戶並行，產品應用於自動化設備、半導體設備、工具機、機器人、醫療設備、太陽能設備、停車設備、PCB/FPC、連接器、汽機車與航太相關設備等。競爭利基包括轉造級滾珠螺桿生產技術、規格齊全、可備標準品、交期與價格具競爭力，以及與下游客戶合作開發。2024年公司滾珠螺桿營收推估台灣市場占有率20.30%，線性滑軌市場占有率3.72%。主要銷貨客戶在年報中以甲、乙、丙等代號揭露，2024年前兩大客戶占比分別為28.25%與14.08%，未揭露真實名稱。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望重點為自動化需求回溫、線性滑軌占比提升、中國在地化生產、人形機器人與高階線性執行器新應用。公司2025年全年合併營收約新台幣25.59億元，年增11.55%；2026年1至5月累計營收約12.86億元，年增49.5%，顯示短期訂單與出貨明顯回升。公司在2025年法說會揭露中國蘇州/江蘇布局，定位為標準品量產與後段加工，計畫2026年將部分標準品產能移往中國以釋放台灣高階產能，江蘇子公司2026年2月公告租地委建廠房工程總金額人民幣100,880,004.2元，目的為因應未來營運發展；外部報導指出蘇州新廠預計2027年投產，此部分屬媒體資訊，需持續追蹤公司公告。新產品方面，公司年報列示計畫開發滾柱型線軌、滾柱型螺桿、輕量化旋轉花鍵軸、微型滑軌5型、雙向單軸機器人；2025年法說會進一步揭露人形機器人線性執行器、靈巧手艾克姆螺桿、滾珠螺桿、滾柱螺桿等開發案，多項產品已進入客戶驗證或整機測試階段，但尚未確認量產規模與量產時程。中長期成長動能包括智慧工廠、工業自動化、半導體與醫療設備、智慧倉儲、電動病床/手術椅/復健機、光學平台、仿生外骨骼與高負載人形機器人。主要風險包括中國本土廠商低價競爭、ECFA優惠中止與關稅變化、匯率波動（人民幣與美元）、中國需求與政策不確定、海外擴產執行風險、新產品驗證未必轉量產、毛利率受價格競爭與人力成本影響、台灣高階人才取得不易、碳費/碳關稅等低碳轉型成本。2028年具體營收或獲利目標公司未公開，因此僅能推估其策略將延續中國標準品產能、台灣高階研發與機器人零組件、海外經銷/南向布局三條主軸。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 中鋼 2002 2024年年報列為螺桿素材主要供應商；台股上市鋼鐵公司。
  • 俊來金屬 2024年年報列為螺桿素材與滑軌素材主要供應商；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 榮鋼材料 2024年年報列為螺桿素材主要供應商；名稱與上市櫃公司對應未能完全確認，故 stock_id 設為 null。
  • 白鷺 2024年年報列為螺帽素材主要供應商；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 利得 2024年年報列為螺帽素材主要供應商；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 春源 2010 2024年年報列為螺帽素材主要供應商；台股上市鋼鐵通路與加工公司。
  • 韓恩國際 2024年年報列為滑軌素材主要供應商；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 鉅揚工業 2024年年報列為滑塊素材主要供應商；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 精密滾珠、滾子、精密射出塑件、熱處理與精密加工供應鏈 年報揭露上游包含合金鋼、不銹鋼、高碳鋼、冷抽、鍛造、熱處理、精密切削加工、精密滾珠、滾子、精密射出塑件等；多數未揭露具名公司。
Downstream
  • 主要客戶甲（年報未揭露真實名稱） 2024年第一大銷貨客戶，占年度銷貨淨額28.25%；公司年報以代號揭露，無法確認是否為上市櫃公司。
  • 主要客戶乙（年報未揭露真實名稱） 2024年第二大銷貨客戶，占年度銷貨淨額14.08%；公司年報以代號揭露，無法確認是否為上市櫃公司。
  • 自動化設備、工具機、半導體設備與機器人設備客戶群 公司產品為設備關鍵零組件，下游主要應用於自動化產業機械、工具機、生產輔助設備、半導體設備與機器人工業；具名客戶多未公開。
  • 醫療設備與高階應用客戶群 滾珠花鍵與線性執行器可應用於醫療市場、電動病床、手術椅、復健機、光學平台、仿生外骨骼等；具名客戶未公開。
  • 人形機器人線性執行器與靈巧手客戶（A至H，法說未揭露真名） 2025年12月法說會揭露線性執行器、靈巧手艾克姆螺桿、滾珠螺桿、滾柱螺桿等已有多家客戶進行驗證、整機測試或規格檢討；客戶以代號揭露，無法確認上市櫃身分。

Competitors

  • 上銀科技 2049 台股上市公司；全球主要線性傳動元件與自動化設備廠，為公司年報列示之國內主要競爭對手。
  • 直得科技 1597 台股上市公司；主要產品含線性滑軌、微型滑軌與線性馬達，為公司年報列示之國內主要競爭對手。
  • 銀泰科技 台灣線性傳動元件廠，為公司年報列示之國內主要競爭對手；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • THK 日本上市企業，全球線性傳動元件大廠；非台股上市櫃。
  • NSK 日本上市企業，軸承與精密機械零件大廠；非台股上市櫃。
  • Bosch Rexroth 德國 Bosch 集團旗下傳動與控制技術廠；非台股上市櫃。
  • INA / Schaeffler 德國 Schaeffler 集團品牌，精密軸承與線性傳動相關產品競爭者；非台股上市櫃。
  • THOMSON 美國線性運動產品品牌；非台股上市櫃。
  • Schneeberger 瑞士線性導軌與精密運動系統廠；非台股上市櫃。
  • SKF 瑞典上市軸承與傳動相關產品大廠；非台股上市櫃。
Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.