Ask AI to review this stock
Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.
Tell your AI:
Help me set up FinLab and analyze 6127 九豪. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=6127
6127
quality needs a look, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 九豪 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
-
Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 9th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -4.7%.
-
Valuation is high.PE is in the 90th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 80th percentile.
-
Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.2% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +95% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 2,673 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 3,108 lots, has sold 52%, 1,494 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.12pp, mid holders +4, retail -1.80pp — little change.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -778 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 台灣摩根士丹利 +2,673
- 元大-四維 +338
- 國泰-板橋 +245
- 元富-大裕 +237
- 元大-歸仁 +200
- 新光-台中 +177
Distributing
- 凱基-台北 1,494 left
- 摩根大通 635 left
- 新加坡商瑞銀 581 left
- 美林 568 left
- 統一 306 left
- 凱基 990 left
Desks
- 凱基-城中 -914
- 第一金-安和 -552
- 永豐金-板新 -519
- 玉山證券 -431
Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 90 | -11.9% | -7.2% | 25.6% | -64.2% |
| 20-40 | 43 | -5.4% | -9.4% | 14% | -46.5% |
| 40-60 | 218 | +57.8% | +59.6% | 91.3% | +25.7% |
| 60-80 You are here | 362 | +54.9% | +52.7% | 100% | +19% |
| 80-100 | 356 | +9.6% | -4.8% | 43% | -40.2% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 101.06, at the 79.7th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
(21d)
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 456 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 20.7%, win rate 73.5%, lagged the market by 4.2%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
35 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.3%, win rate 42.4%, beating the market by -4.5 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
69 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.38%, win rate 63.2%, beating the market by +2.02 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
50 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.75%, win rate 54%, beating the market by +4.09 pts on average.
What does 九豪 do? Company profile
Overview
6127 對應證券為上櫃普通股「九豪」，公司全名九豪精密陶瓷股份有限公司，英文名 LEATEC Fine Ceramics Co., Ltd.。公司成立於1991年12月2日，公開發行日為1995年7月21日，上櫃掛牌日為2002年1月10日；總部位於桃園市平鎮區平東路一段160號。Yahoo股市資料顯示董事長為陳清金、總經理為陳雋廷、發言人為陳永倉；股本約新台幣10.81億元，已發行普通股約108,079,751股，產業類別為櫃電子零組件。公開片段顯示員工人數近期約586人，但此數字來自財務比率資料頁而非公司年報全文，需視為次級來源。董監持股公開片段顯示陳清金持股約5,211千股、陳雋廷約2,314千股、黃聯成約1,708至1,768千股、淞展國際亦為董事股東之一；完整前十大股東與最終受益人仍以公開資訊觀測站及公司年報為準。
Business
九豪為精密陶瓷基板製造商，核心產品為氧化鋁陶瓷基板，主要用於晶片電阻、厚膜混合積體電路、感測器、LED散熱、車用電子、工業電源模組與高功率散熱應用。公司產品線包括電阻用氧化鋁陶瓷基板、非電阻基板、ZTA氧化鋯增韌氧化鋁基板、氮化鋁基板及可供 DBC/DPC 金屬化再加工之陶瓷基板。MoneyDJ百科引述公司資料指出2024年營收比重約為電阻基板51%、非電阻基板約45%；MoneyDJ新聞則指出截至2025年前10月，產品占比約電阻基板54%、非電阻基板46%。商業模式為向被動元件、功率電子、LED、車用與光通訊等客戶供應標準及客製化陶瓷基板，依材料配方、厚度、平整度、熱傳導、耐壓、機械強度與後段加工需求形成差異化。主要生產據點包括台灣平鎮廠及中國大陸昆山廠；2024年銷售區域以亞洲為主，MoneyDJ資料列示亞洲約89%、美洲約6%、歐洲約3%。公司未在可抓取公開資料中完整揭露直接客戶名單，因此下游公司多以產業鏈合理對應標示，非直接客戶確認。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028年主要觀察軸為產品組合升級、非電阻基板放量、昆山新廠效率改善，以及AI/光通訊、車用電子、電動車功率模組與高功率散熱需求。2025年公司營運仍受晶片電阻價格壓力與遷廠過渡期影響；Yahoo營收資料顯示2025全年合併營收約9.876億元、年減約1.84%，代表需求復甦並非線性。2025年12月MoneyDJ新聞指出，晶片電阻需求在2026年仍有成長，但同業擴產使價格承壓，因此九豪積極發展非電阻基板以改善毛利結構；高K值氮化鋁基板目標規格K值約230至250，當時以每月出貨1,000至3,000片為目標，並已切入AI及光通訊應用。自由財經報導公司法說會釋出2026年營收年增率可望達兩位數、東莞廠遷至昆山新廠後產能增加等訊息，但此為公司展望與媒體報導，仍需用後續月營收及毛利率驗證。2026至2028成長動能包括：AI伺服器與光通訊對高散熱陶瓷材料需求提升、電動車與IGBT/功率模組採用ZTA/氮化鋁等高可靠度基板、非電阻基板占比提升、昆山新廠自動化與規模經濟改善成本。主要風險包括：晶片電阻基板價格下滑、同業擴產造成供給壓力、原料粉體與溶劑價格波動、人民幣與新台幣匯率、客戶認證時程不確定、氮化鋁高K值產品量產良率與實際出貨速度不及預期、公司本業獲利仍有波動且部分2025獲利可能受業外收益影響。2027至2028展望屬推估：若非電阻基板與AI/車用應用量產順利，公司營收與毛利率有機會改善；若價格競爭或認證延後，營運仍可能回到低毛利週期。
Supply Chain
- KINSEI 氧化鋁粉等主要原料供應商之一；非台股掛牌或未能確認台股掛牌，資料來自MoneyDJ引述公司年報。
- Sumitomo 主要原料供應商之一，推定涉及氧化鋁粉或相關化工材料；日本企業集團相關公司，非台股掛牌。
- 穗曄實業 主要原料供應商之一，資料來源列為穗曄；未能確認為台股上市櫃公司。
- 氧化鋁粉、起溶劑及陶瓷材料供應商 九豪上游以陶瓷粉體、溶劑、添加劑、銅箔或金屬化加工材料、燒結與雷射加工設備為主；具體供應商多未完整公開。
- 晶片電阻與厚膜電路廠商 九豪主要電阻用陶瓷基板下游；公司未完整公開直接客戶名單，因此以產業類別表示。
- 國巨 2327 台股上市被動元件龍頭，屬晶片電阻與MLCC等下游應用族群；未能由公開資料確認為九豪直接客戶。
- 華新科 2492 台股上市被動元件廠，屬晶片電阻、MLCC等下游應用族群；未能由公開資料確認為九豪直接客戶。
- 大毅 2478 台股上市晶片電阻廠，為電阻用陶瓷基板合理下游應用企業；未能由公開資料確認為九豪直接客戶。
- 光頡科技 3624 台股上櫃精密電阻與薄膜元件廠，屬陶瓷基板下游應用族群；未能由公開資料確認為九豪直接客戶。
- LED、車用電子、IGBT功率模組、AI光通訊及工業電源模組廠商 非電阻基板、ZTA基板與氮化鋁基板的目標下游應用；具體客戶未公開。
Competitors
- MARUWA 日本上市精密陶瓷與電子材料廠，MoneyDJ列為九豪國外競爭廠商；非台股掛牌。
- 京瓷 Kyocera 日本上市陶瓷材料與電子零組件大廠，MoneyDJ列為競爭廠商；非台股掛牌。
- 潮州三環集團 中國A股上市陶瓷電子材料廠，產品涵蓋電子陶瓷與陶瓷基板，為區域性競爭者；非台股掛牌。
- 同欣電子 6271 台股上市電子陶瓷基板、混合積體電路與模組廠，產品應用有部分重疊，但客戶與產品組合不完全相同。
- Ferrotec 國際DBC/AMB功率電子陶瓷基板供應商，非台股掛牌；在功率模組陶瓷基板領域具競爭關係。
Sources（12）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.