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6164

華興 Optoelectronics As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal
252d high
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 華興 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 31Quality 26Growth 9Momentum 58Chips 94

Is 華興 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 22th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.4%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 99th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 100th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 13.1% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.87
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 holds 1,559 lots
  • sellers have 1,148 lots left, ~70 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +7% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 1,559 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 1,748 lots, has sold 58%, 734 left, ~67 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.73pp, mid holders +6, retail -4.38pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -791 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣摩根士丹利統一-城中永豐金-板新新加坡商瑞銀美林美商高盛
Distributing
凱基-台北摩根大通兆豐-新莊國泰-敦南元大-松山兆豐-岡山
Desks
own scale
統一-永和群益金鼎-松山台新-五權西國票-和平
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +1,559
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 統一-城中 +826
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 永豐金-板新 +803
    sold 0%
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +576
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美林 +565
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +363
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 凱基-台北 734 left
    sold 58%· ~67 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 291 left
    sold 40%· paused recently
  • 兆豐-新莊 30 left
    sold 87%· ~4 sessions to clear
  • 國泰-敦南 67 left
    sold 66%· ~18 sessions to clear
  • 元大-松山 52 left
    sold 65%· paused recently
  • 兆豐-岡山 57 left
    sold 60%· ~10 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 統一-永和 -773
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎-松山 -732
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 台新-五權西 -403
    unclassified
  • 國票-和平 -239
    unclassified
Still selling 1,148 lots ~70 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,528 absorbed / -497 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -2 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

24 historical occurrences (since 2009-08-13)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 47.8%, Sample 23, Median -0.71%, Excess -0.31%, Beat mkt rate 43.5%；60-day: Win 45.5%, Sample 22, Median -1.93%, Excess -6.76%, Beat mkt rate 27.3%；120-day: Win 52.4%, Sample 21, Median +4.78%, Excess -5.76%, Beat mkt rate 38.1%

120 days after: historical avg +2.78%

20-day +1.91%
60-day -1.05%
120-day +2.78%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.8%
45.5%
52.4%
Sample
23
22
21
Median
-0.71%
-1.93%
+4.78%
Excess
-0.31%
-6.76%
-5.76%
Beat mkt rate
43.5%
27.3%
38.1%

Over 21 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 2.78%, lagged the market by 5.76 pts; win rate 52.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 756-11.6% -15.7% 28.8% -19.2%
20-40 215+23.7% +24.8% 88.4% -13.5%
40-60 177+23.4% +18% 97.7% -13.5%
60-80 575+3.3% -3.8% 46.8% -16.6%
80-100 You are here692+14.8% +1.4% 50.1% -14.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 680.0, at the 100.0th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-2.5%
Win rate 41.1% Excess -8.3%
474d
+13.2%
Win rate 67.9% Excess +4.9%
221d
Now
-2.4%
Win rate 38.5% Excess -10.5%
434d
60-day momentum down
-3.2%
Win rate 40.8% Excess -8.6%
451d
+4.5%
Win rate 45.8% Excess -12.9%
203d
+14.8%
Win rate 40.6% Excess -4%
752d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 434 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 2.4%, win rate 38.5%, lagged the market by 10.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

42 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.85%, win rate 41%, beating the market by -1.71 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

53 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.02%, win rate 51.9%, beating the market by +0.76 pts on average.

What does 華興 do? Company profile

光電業；LED元件與LED照明應用 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

6164 對應證券為華興，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、特別股、權證或其他非營運證券。公司全名為華興電子工業股份有限公司，英文名 LEDTECH ELECTRONICS CORP.，統一編號 34168978，成立於 1977/09/06，公開發行日 1997/05/26，上櫃日 2002/04/02，上市日 2008/10/21。總部位於新北市新店區中正路542-5號5樓，電話 (02)2218-6891。董事長為劉守雄，公開股市資料顯示總經理為劉守雄；發言人資料在不同來源有蔡尚欣/倪志誠差異，較多公開基本資料列蔡尚欣。實收資本額新台幣8億元，已發行普通股8,000萬股，每股面額新台幣10元。股務代理為中國信託商業銀行。主要股東/董監持股方面，公開資料顯示董事長劉守雄持有約3,373,355股、嘉誼投資股份有限公司代表人劉信誼持有約2,227,200股；董監持股合計比率公開來源約7%。員工規模未能在交易所基本資料中交叉確認，Google Finance 顯示員工人數約1,170人，台灣公司網舊資料曾列119人，差異大，故僅作低信心水準參考。公司官網稱集團創立於1977年，從LED元件逐步擴大至LED成品與客製化服務，並以全球市場與合作夥伴為導向。

Business

華興為LED元件與LED照明應用廠，商業模式以LED元件、顯示/指示用光源、商業照明、低溫照明與客製化照明解決方案為主，兼具元件銷售、模組/成品銷售、專案型照明方案與逐步導入的ESG節能服務。公司官網產品分類包括 SMD LED、LAMP LED、LED DIGITAL DISPLAY、LED Refrigerator Display Lighting 等；應用包括指示燈、LED數位顯示、冷凍/冷藏展示櫃照明、自動販賣機照明、辦公照明、便利商店與商場照明、倉儲照明、農業照明、警示燈、LED顯示、電動車充電站指示燈及半導體廠照明。第三方公司資料列最近可查產品營收結構為照明應用產品約60.33%、發光二極體元件約39.67%。2025年法說簡報摘要顯示前三季營收約5.75至5.76億元、年減約9%，毛利率約34.7%，營業淨利約1,478萬元，EPS約0.02元，獲利受匯兌損失拖累；Yahoo股市月營收資料顯示2025全年累計合併營收約7.32167億元，低於2024年的8.22357億元約10.97%，2026年1至5月累計營收約3.28549億元、年減約10.72%。低溫照明是公司近年主要高毛利成長軸，2024年第三季低溫照明營收占比由前一年同期14%提升至29%，媒體報導稱取得可口可樂、百事可樂等國際大廠認證，並透過希臘 Frico Class、Feng Sha Group 等合作夥伴延伸至便利商店、加油站、紅酒櫃、醫療櫃等終端。公司曾獲 Emerson 2019 Outstanding Service Supplier Award，顯示其在國際客戶服務與供應鏈中具一定能見度。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年：營運主軸為產品組合優化、低溫照明放量、ESG節能服務與降低匯率波動衝擊；實際營收較2024下滑，但毛利率改善，顯示公司策略由低毛利元件/照明產品逐步轉向高毛利低溫照明與解決方案。2026年：公司及媒體法說摘要指向低溫照明、歐美市場、自有品牌OBM、ESG+AIoT智慧節能方案為主要動能；新一代燈管、冷凍櫃智慧監控系統、ESCO模式與半導體黃光/商業照明為潛在新業務方向。2027至2028年：此區間屬推估，若全球淨零、冷鏈設備節能、食品飲料展示櫃更新、商業空間節能改造與半導體特殊照明需求延續，華興有機會以低溫照明、智慧監控、節能服務與高毛利模組提升營收品質；但能否持續成長取決於海外認證客戶轉單速度、歐洲與美洲通路擴張、自有品牌接受度、匯率、LED價格競爭、原物料/晶片成本、庫存循環、低溫照明專案延遲與大型國際照明廠競爭。主要風險包括：LED元件成熟市場價格壓力、營收規模仍小導致客戶集中與訂單波動、美元/新台幣匯率造成業外損益波動、海外專案驗證期長、ESG/ESCO模式需資金與服務能力支撐，以及官網/公開資料未完整揭露客戶與供應商名單造成研究可視度有限。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 富采投資控股股份有限公司 3714 台股上市LED磊晶、晶粒、封裝與Mini/Micro LED生態系公司，屬華興所處LED產業的上游/同業供應鏈代表；未確認為華興直接供應商。
  • 鼎元光電科技股份有限公司 2426 台股上市LED晶粒、感測元件與光電元件廠，屬LED元件上游代表；未確認為華興直接供應商。
  • 光磊科技股份有限公司 2340 台股上市光電半導體與LED相關元件廠，屬LED上游/元件供應鏈代表；未確認為華興直接供應商。
  • 日亞化學工業株式會社 日本未上市/非台股掛牌LED晶粒、螢光粉與封裝技術大廠，為全球LED上游技術供應鏈代表；未確認為華興直接供應商。
  • ams OSRAM 歐洲上市光電半導體與LED元件大廠，非台股掛牌，屬全球LED上游元件與技術供應鏈代表；未確認為華興直接供應商。
Downstream
  • Emerson Electric Co. 美國上市公司，華興官網新聞顯示LEDTECH Group曾獲Emerson 2019 Outstanding Service Supplier Award，顯示雙方存在供應/服務關係。
  • The Coca-Cola Company 美國上市公司，媒體報導稱華興低溫照明產品已取得可口可樂認證，屬食品飲料冷藏展示設備終端/品牌客戶供應鏈；非台股掛牌。
  • PepsiCo, Inc. 美國上市公司，媒體報導稱華興低溫照明產品已取得百事可樂認證，屬食品飲料冷藏展示設備終端/品牌客戶供應鏈；非台股掛牌。
  • Frico Class 希臘冷凍/冷藏設備相關合作廠商，媒體報導華興透過其將低溫照明延伸至便利商店、加油站等零售通路；非台股掛牌。
  • Feng Sha Group 媒體報導之全球性合作廠商，協助華興低溫照明產品延伸至零售通路；非台股掛牌或掛牌資訊未確認。

Competitors

  • 億光電子工業股份有限公司 2393 台股上市LED封裝與光電元件大廠，與華興在LED元件、指示/照明元件市場具競爭或供應鏈重疊。
  • 光寶科技股份有限公司 2301 台股上市電子與光電元件/照明相關公司，規模較大，在光電元件、LED與電源/照明方案領域具競爭或替代性。
  • 今台電子股份有限公司 3031 台股上市LED指示燈、顯示器與光電元件廠，產品定位與華興LED元件/指示應用部分重疊。
  • 宏齊科技股份有限公司 6168 台股上市LED封裝與光電元件廠，與華興在LED元件、封裝與顯示/照明應用供應鏈相近。
  • 艾笛森光電股份有限公司 3591 台股上市LED元件與照明模組/應用廠，與華興在LED照明模組、商業照明及特殊應用市場具競爭關係。
  • 聯嘉光電股份有限公司 6288 台股上市LED車用與光電模組廠，部分LED模組與光電應用技術具可比性，但主要終端市場與華興不同。
  • Signify N.V. 荷蘭上市國際照明大廠，非台股掛牌；在商業照明、智慧照明與節能改造方案具全球競爭力。
  • Nichia Corporation 日本未上市LED大廠，非台股掛牌；在LED晶粒、封裝與高階光源技術具全球競爭力。
Sources（19）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.