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6269

台郡 Electronic Components As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal
252d high
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 台郡 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 35Quality 9Growth 24Momentum 78Chips 83

Is 台郡 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 10th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -3.6%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 84th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 100th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 6.6% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.40
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 holds 3,606 lots
  • sellers have 3,022 lots left, ~1901 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +36% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 新加坡商瑞銀 has accumulated 3,606 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 國票證券 peaked at 2,540 lots, has sold 83%, 432 left, ~2 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.71pp, mid holders -7, retail +2.84pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -92 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
新加坡商瑞銀美商高盛摩根大通港商野村凱基-中壢凱基-中港
Distributing
國票證券凱基-台北台灣摩根士丹利國泰-敦南美林元大-忠孝
Desks
own scale
凱基港商麥格理花旗環球大和國泰
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +3,606
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +2,805
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +744
    sold 23%· still adding
  • 港商野村 +708
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-中壢 +490
    sold 13%
  • 凱基-中港 +407
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 國票證券 432 left
    sold 83%· ~2 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 1,331 left
    sold 36%· ~1901 sessions to clear
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 271 left
    sold 78%· paused recently
  • 國泰-敦南 605 left
    sold 36%· ~29 sessions to clear
  • 美林 487 left
    sold 47%· paused recently
  • 元大-忠孝 169 left
    sold 74%· paused recently

Desks

  • 凱基 -1,487
    unclassified
  • 港商麥格理 -1,315
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 花旗環球 -1,217
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 大和國泰 -1,150
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 3,022 lots ~1901 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +8,983 absorbed / -2,971 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

31 historical occurrences (since 2008-05-09)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 46.7%, Sample 30, Median -0.36%, Excess +0.79%, Beat mkt rate 50%；60-day: Win 58.6%, Sample 29, Median +2.38%, Excess +4.98%, Beat mkt rate 51.7%；120-day: Win 75.9%, Sample 29, Median +12.33%, Excess +12.5%, Beat mkt rate 72.4%

120 days after: historical avg +15.16%

20-day +1.57%
60-day +4.29%
120-day +15.16%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
46.7%
58.6%
75.9%
Sample
30
29
29
Median
-0.36%
+2.38%
+12.33%
Excess
+0.79%
+4.98%
+12.5%
Beat mkt rate
50%
51.7%
72.4%

Over 29 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 15.16%, beat the market by 12.5 pts; win rate 75.9%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 1161+14.8% +5.5% 60.2% -1.7%
20-40 499+14.7% +8.5% 67.7% -3.1%
40-60 488+8.2% +6.7% 69.9% -0.5%
60-80 411-13% -14% 17.3% -28.9%
80-100 You are here145-20.9% -19.8% 0% -24.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 57.7, at the 99.8th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+1.8%
Win rate 46.9% Excess -4.8%
542d
+9.5%
Win rate 64.6% Excess +5.8%
460d
Now
-8.7%
Win rate 25.8% Excess -16.5%
422d
60-day momentum down
+8.6%
Win rate 55.5% Excess +0.9%
903d
+4.6%
Win rate 46.6% Excess -1.3%
341d
-4.6%
Win rate 37.8% Excess -18.3%
156d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 422 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 8.7%, win rate 25.8%, lagged the market by 16.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

105 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.16%, win rate 56.2%, beating the market by +6.33 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

58 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.19%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -1.45 pts on average.

What does 台郡 do? Company profile

電子零組件業；軟性印刷電路板（FPC）／軟板模組（FPCA） 上市，台灣證券交易所

Overview

6269 對應證券為台郡科技股份有限公司，英文名 FLEXIUM INTERCONNECT INC.，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司成立於 1997 年 12 月 19 日，上市日期為 2003 年 9 月 23 日，總部位於高雄市大寮區和發產業園區上發五路 1 號。董事長為鄭明智，總經理為 David Cheng，發言人為熊雅士。公開資料顯示股本約新台幣 32.31 至 32.38 億元，已發行普通股約 3.23 億股；2024 年永續報告書揭露資本額約新台幣 32 億元、2024 年合併營收新台幣 264 億元、關係企業 16 家、2024 年底台灣員工 1,964 人、海內外總人數 4,774 人。2023 年年報揭露主要股東名單（113 年 3 月 31 日）包括凱基人壽保險 4.95%、台鵬開發 4.79%、南山人壽保險 2.94%、國泰人壽保險 2.78%、長庚醫療財團法人等；Yahoo 股市 2026/01/22 資料顯示董監持股比例約 7.71%。

Business

台郡主要從事軟式印刷電路板（FPC）的設計、開發、製造及銷售，並延伸至 FPCA 軟板組裝打件模組、高頻高速傳輸模組、材料與線路設計、製造工藝、模組測試及自動化設備整合。2023 年年報顯示，2023 年營收幾乎全部來自軟式印刷電路板，軟式印刷電路板營業金額新台幣 326.67 億元、占 99.81%，射頻積體電路新台幣 0.61 億元、占 0.19%；射頻積體電路比重係因併入宏觀微電子相關業務後納入統計。產品類型包括單面板、雙面板、多層板、軟硬結合板、LCP/MPI 高頻材料軟板、多層壓合與 MetaLink Anylayer FPC 等。應用端涵蓋電腦與平板、筆電、智慧手機與通訊、穿戴式裝置、消費性電子、相機模組、顯示器、車用電子、醫療與工業儀器、AI 伺服器高速傳輸、24/77GHz 車用雷達、60GHz 雷達感測器、近地軌道衛星收發追蹤系統等。台郡商業模式偏向客製化共同開發與量產製造，透過售前設計、工程驗證、設計驗證、產品驗證至量產導入，提供國內外終端品牌或系統客戶軟板與傳輸模組解決方案。2025 年第四季應用別營收結構據 MoneyDJ/台視財經報導為電腦應用 56%、通訊 20%、消費性電子 24%。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年為轉型低谷期：公司 2025 年合併營收約新台幣 223.5 億元，年減 15.5%，全年毛利率 1.3%，營業利益率 -14.8%，歸屬母公司淨損約新台幣 22.29 億元，EPS 約 -6.95 元；主要壓力來自稼動率不足、客戶季降價、消費性電子需求疲弱及產品線調整。2026 年第一季營收約新台幣 54.67 億元，年增 5.7%、季減 2.1%，但毛利率 -1.4%、營業利益率 -18.3%，仍處虧損改善前期。公司與媒體轉述法說內容顯示，2026 年主要成長動能包括主力客戶下半年新機片數成長約三成、AI 伺服器傳輸軟板應用、穿戴式裝置成長，後兩者 2026 年營收目標為倍增；公司亦以 MetaLink 技術深化 AI 傳輸產品轉型策略，將自身由傳統軟板製造商推向訊號傳輸解決方案供應商。2026 年資本支出市場報導估約新台幣 15 至 18 億元，另有報導提及核准約 18.6 億元資本支出，目的在支援 AI 傳輸與新產品量產。2027 至 2028 年的明確量化目標公開資訊有限，較可靠的敘述是公司稱 2026 年為轉型成效第一年，並為 2027 至 2028 年轉型成效打基礎；推估展望將取決於 AI 伺服器高速傳輸、邊緣運算、智慧行動裝置、穿戴式與高頻應用能否放量，以及毛利率是否因產品組合改善與稼動率提升而回升。主要風險包括終端消費電子需求波動、客戶集中與議價壓力、季降價、AI 伺服器新產品驗證與量產時程不確定、資本支出回收風險、低稼動率造成固定成本吸收不足、匯率、地緣政治、主要原物料價格與供應、勞動密集製程的人力成本及技術轉型執行風險。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 台虹科技股份有限公司 8039 軟性銅箔基板（FCCL）與高頻高速軟板材料代表廠商，屬 FPC 產業上游；年報提及銅箔基板為台郡主要上游原料，但未公開確認台虹為台郡直接供應商。
  • 達邁科技股份有限公司 3645 聚醯亞胺薄膜（PI Film）供應商，PI 為 FPC、保護膠片與高頻材料相關關鍵材料；未公開確認為台郡直接供應商。
  • 長興材料工業股份有限公司 1717 電子材料、乾膜光阻與 PCB 相關化學材料代表廠商；台郡年報與永續報告揭露化學品為主要原物料之一，但未公開確認長興為台郡直接供應商。
  • DuPont／杜邦 外商材料供應商，年報提及杜邦等銅箔基板加工製造廠在台灣與中國大陸開出產能，屬軟板上游材料生態；非台股掛牌公司。
  • 國內外研究開發單位與先進設備廠 2024 永續報告書指出台郡在新產品研發過程中與國際材料大廠、學術研究開發單位及先進技術設備廠合作；具體公司名稱多未揭露。
Downstream
  • 美系主力客戶（未具名） 法說新聞提及台郡與美系主力客戶合作穩固，並稱 2026 年主力客戶下半年新機片數成長約三成；公開資料未揭露公司名稱，可能為國際終端品牌客戶，非台股掛牌資訊。
  • AI 伺服器與資料中心設備客戶（未具名） 台郡 2024 永續報告書與 2025/2026 法說資訊指出 AI 伺服器傳輸軟板與高速資料傳輸為轉型重點，已進入少量出貨與 2026 放量目標；具體客戶未公開揭露。
  • 穿戴式裝置客戶（未具名） 公司與媒體轉述法說內容指出穿戴式裝置為 2026 年營收倍增動能之一；具體客戶未公開揭露。
  • 電腦、通訊與消費性電子終端產品供應鏈 2025 年第四季營收結構以電腦應用 56%、通訊 20%、消費性電子 24% 為主，產品出貨至國內外終端品牌、系統廠或組裝鏈；未公開逐一揭露客戶名稱。

Competitors

  • 臻鼎-KY 4958 台灣上市 PCB 龍頭，從軟板起家並擴展至高階 PCB、AI 伺服器、高速光通訊與載板，為高階軟板與 PCB 解決方案競爭者。
  • 嘉聯益科技股份有限公司 6153 台灣上市軟板廠，主營 FPC 設計與製造，客戶涵蓋 NB、平板、穿戴裝置等，為台郡在軟板族群的直接同業。
  • 毅嘉科技股份有限公司 2402 台灣上市軟板與整合模組廠，近年切入光通訊、AI 與車用等題材，與台郡在軟板及模組化應用上具競爭關係。
  • 日本旗勝／Nippon Mektron 全球重要 FPC 廠商，非台股掛牌；為國際軟板市場主要競爭者。
  • 住友電工／Sumitomo Electric 日本上市企業，具 FPC 與電子材料相關業務，非台股掛牌；為國際高階軟板與傳輸材料競爭者。
Sources（17）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.