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6616

特昇-KY Home & Living As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 特昇-KY to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 39Quality 11Growth 72Momentum 27Chips 51

Is 特昇-KY a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 15th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -4.1%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 88th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 86th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 0.5% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 27.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.66
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
  • 華南永昌-基隆 holds 868 lots
  • sellers have 46 lots left, ~20 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -5% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 華南永昌-基隆 has accumulated 868 lots since the start (sold 12%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 國泰-敦南 peaked at 62 lots, has sold 44%, 35 left, ~13 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.00pp, mid holders +1, retail -3.27pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -52 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
華南永昌-基隆兆豐-南京富邦-陽明新光國泰-館前臺銀-民權
Distributing
國泰-敦南群益金鼎元大-鹿港(牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐群益金鼎-中壢康和-石牌
Desks
own scale
永豐金-苓雅群益金鼎-海山群益金鼎-三民永豐金-竹北
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 華南永昌-基隆 +868
    sold 12%
  • 兆豐-南京 +338
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-陽明 +294
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 新光 +213
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰-館前 +198
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 臺銀-民權 +136
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 國泰-敦南 35 left
    sold 44%· ~13 sessions to clear
  • 群益金鼎 3 left
    sold 86%· paused recently
  • 元大-鹿港 12 left
    sold 29%· paused recently
  • (牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐 4 left
    sold 67%· ~5 sessions to clear
  • 群益金鼎-中壢 6 left
    sold 33%· ~20 sessions to clear
  • 康和-石牌 3 left
    sold 63%· paused recently

Desks

  • 永豐金-苓雅 -412
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎-海山 -185
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎-三民 -122
    unclassified
  • 永豐金-竹北 -113
    unclassified
Still selling 46 lots ~20 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +355 absorbed / -44 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -2 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 27.91%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

36 historical occurrences (since 2018-07-10)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 54.3%, Sample 35, Median +1.77%, Excess +1.33%, Beat mkt rate 40%；60-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 35, Median +3.34%, Excess +4.02%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%；120-day: Win 45.7%, Sample 35, Median -3.53%, Excess +6.36%, Beat mkt rate 37.1%

120 days after: historical avg +15.08%

20-day +2.88%
60-day +8.64%
120-day +15.08%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
54.3%
57.1%
45.7%
Sample
35
35
35
Median
+1.77%
+3.34%
-3.53%
Excess
+1.33%
+4.02%
+6.36%
Beat mkt rate
40%
42.9%
37.1%

Over 35 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 15.08%, beat the market by 6.36 pts; win rate 45.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 0Insufficient data
20-40 9Insufficient data
40-60 1Insufficient data
60-80 34-31.9% -33.2% 0% -28.5%
80-100 You are here102-22.7% -20% 0% -47.3%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 68.95, at the 86.5th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Insufficient data
(0d)
Insufficient data
(7d)
-28%
Win rate 0% Excess -15.4%
42d
60-day momentum down
Insufficient data
(1d)
+8.6%
Win rate 75% Excess -43%
68d
Now
-15.7%
Win rate 11.1% Excess -15.7%
135d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 135 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 15.7%, win rate 11.1%, lagged the market by 15.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

7 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.58%, win rate 42.9%, beating the market by -1.67 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

9 times historically; 60-day forward avg -4.92%, win rate 33.3%, beating the market by -13.93 pts on average.

What does 特昇-KY do? Company profile

居家生活 上櫃

Overview

6616 對應證券為特昇-KY，ISIN 清單列示為 2018/01/10 上櫃、產業別居家生活、CFICode 為 ESVUFR，判定為上櫃普通股。公司為開曼控股公司 Techcential International Ltd，中文名特昇國際股份有限公司，成立於 2016 年 6 月 14 日，總部註冊地為開曼群島，主要營運基地在馬來西亞柔佛州麻坡。創辦人為黃世光，董事長為黃凱斌 Gavin Eng，總經理為黃凱傑 Louis Eng。公司 2025 年法說資料揭露資本額約新台幣 3.54 億元，員工 671 人（截至 2025/10/31）；2024 年報揭露 2024 年底員工 746 人、2025/04/30 為 737 人，差異應來自統計時點不同。集團子公司包含 Techcential Sdn. Bhd.（家具專業製造）、EHL Cabinetry Sdn. Bhd.、Thinker Craft Sdn. Bhd.、ESK Biomass Sdn. Bhd.、ESK Wood Products Sdn. Bhd.（橡膠木/原料相關）及美國 TC Home Corporation。董事會法人董事包含 Eng Synergy Management Sdn Bhd 與 Surging Success Sdn Bhd；主要股東精確持股比例因公開 PDF 文字抽取不完整，未列數字。

Business

特昇-KY 是馬來西亞木製家具製造商，核心業務為美式木製寢室家具之設計、製造與銷售，並延伸至橡膠木、板材與原材料採購、加工及銷售。主要產品包括床架、床頭櫃、梳妝台、鏡架、櫥櫃、PU 材質產品、餐廳組與客廳系列等。2024 年年報揭露營收淨額約新台幣 11.64 億元，較 2023 年約 10.10 億元成長約 15%；2024 年產品結構為木製家具約新台幣 10.52 億元、占 90.35%，其他約新台幣 1.12 億元、占 9.65%。商業模式以接單製造、客製化與 ODM/設計協作為主，產品銷往美國、加拿大、澳洲、南非、馬來西亞等市場，客戶類型包含分銷商、進口商、全美 TOP100 大型連鎖店與網路電商。主要客戶方面，2024 年年報列示 Elements 約占銷貨淨額 28.29%、Ashley (AFT) 約 21.24%、Crown Mark 約 17.78%；2025 年 1-9 月法說資料顯示 EIG 約 34%、CMI 約 19%、Ashley 約 12%、ULC 約 4%、COA 約 3%、其他約 28%。公司強調原料直接採購、彈性化大批量生產、研發設計及客製化能力。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望可分為需求、產品、製造與風險四個面向。需求面：美國仍是主要終端市場，家具需求受成屋/新屋銷售、房貸利率、消費信心與庫存循環影響；2025 年法說資料指出美國房市在高利率後仍偏疲弱但利率回落與供給改善可能帶來修復，全球家具貿易雖略有成長但受保護主義與地緣政治不確定性干擾。產品面：公司 2026 年業務重點為深耕美國市場、開拓其他市場、提升 ODM 與設計導向比例，推出新材質、新風格系列，開發中高價產品以改善毛利；年報亦提到研發替代性原料、PU Paper 材質、拆裝式寢室家具與提高附加價值。製造面：公司規劃推動自動化、數據化生產、節能、減廢與綠色製造，年報揭露短期會增加自動化機械設備、原料直接採購，長期規劃購置工業用地與興建新廠以改善倉儲、物流與產線配置；2024 年 10 月發行限制員工權利新股，依年報條件於 2026/10/01 與 2028/10/01 分批達成歸屬，有助於人才留任但會產生潛在稀釋。風險面：公司面臨美國對等關稅與木製家具/軟包家具/櫥櫃關稅變化、美金兌馬幣匯率波動、馬來西亞最低薪資與外勞政策、原物料價格、客戶集中、全球家具消費模式變遷，以及開曼註冊公司對台灣投資人權益保護差異等風險。2027-2028 年未見公司公開具體財務預測，因此相關展望屬依既有策略與產業趨勢推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • Robin Resources 年報列示為板材主要供應商之一；非台股掛牌或未確認台股掛牌。
  • Allgreen Timber 年報列示為板材主要供應商之一；非台股掛牌或未確認台股掛牌。
  • Five Hills 年報列示為板材主要供應商之一；非台股掛牌或未確認台股掛牌。
  • Magic Wood 年報列示為木材主要供應商之一；非台股掛牌或未確認台股掛牌。
  • Linewood Industries 年報列示為木材主要供應商之一；非台股掛牌或未確認台股掛牌。
  • Goodwood Hectares 年報列示為木材主要供應商之一；非台股掛牌或未確認台股掛牌。
  • Lycora 年報列示為油漆主要供應商之一；非台股掛牌或未確認台股掛牌。
  • Nikkolac 年報列示為油漆主要供應商之一；非台股掛牌或未確認台股掛牌。
  • Pine Packaging 年報列示為紙箱主要供應商之一；非台股掛牌或未確認台股掛牌。
  • Southern Legend 年報列示為紙箱主要供應商之一；非台股掛牌或未確認台股掛牌。
Downstream
  • Elements / EIG 美國家具進口商/批發商，2024 年為第一大客戶，約占銷貨淨額 28.29%；2025 年 1-9 月法說資料 EIG 約占 34%。非台股掛牌。
  • Ashley Furniture Trading / Ashley Furniture Industries 美國大型家具製造與零售集團之相關採購/交易公司，2024 年約占銷貨淨額 21.24%，2025 年 1-9 月法說資料 Ashley 約占 12%。非台股掛牌。
  • Crown Mark / CMI 美國家具分銷商，年報稱為穩定客戶，2024 年約占銷貨淨額 17.78%；2025 年 1-9 月法說資料 CMI 約占 19%。非台股掛牌。
  • 來思達 8066 年報產業鏈段落列為家具下游代表品牌/通路之一；台股掛牌公司，實際是否為 2024 年十大客戶未由年報表格確認。

Competitors

  • 來思達 8066 台股居家/家具相關公司，從事家具與家居用品貿易、品牌與通路，與特昇在家具供應鏈與終端通路有部分重疊。
  • 詩肯 6195 台股上櫃居家生活公司，主要為品牌家具連鎖門市，屬下游通路/品牌家具競爭參照，非同型態製造商。
  • 關中 8941 台股上櫃居家生活公司，產品屬戶外休閒家具/烤爐等居家休閒品，與特昇木製寢室家具並非完全同品類，但同屬居家生活出口與家具相關族群。
  • Ashley Furniture Industries 美國大型家具製造與零售公司，同時也是特昇重要客戶相關集團；因垂直整合與自有製造能力，在終端市場亦具競爭參照意義。非台股掛牌。
  • Crown Mark 美國家具進口/分銷商，也是特昇主要客戶；在產品設計、品牌與通路端具同業參照意義。非台股掛牌。
  • 馬來西亞、越南、中國木製家具製造商 公司年報指出中國、越南、馬來西亞為亞洲家具出口重鎮；特昇主要競爭壓力來自同樣供應美國市場的亞洲木製家具 OEM/ODM 製造商，多數非台股掛牌或未具名。
Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.