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8042

金山電 Electronic Components As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 金山電 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 20Quality 73Growth 76Momentum 99Chips 7

Is 金山電 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 54th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 6.9%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 81th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 77th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -6.8% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 33.4%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.61
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 凱基-松山 holds 1,946 lots
  • sellers have 7,990 lots left, ~29 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +173% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 凱基-松山 has accumulated 1,946 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 富邦證券 peaked at 3,282 lots, has sold 47%, 1,744 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +7.01pp, mid holders +12, retail -8.28pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -478 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
凱基-松山元大證券群益金鼎-台北富邦-嘉義新光-台南元大-士林
Distributing
富邦證券美林台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛新加坡商瑞銀凱基-台北
Desks
own scale
兆豐-桃鶯凱基-站前華南永昌-中正國泰-敦南
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 凱基-松山 +1,946
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +1,146
    sold 9%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎-台北 +1,113
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 富邦-嘉義 +557
    sold 15%· still adding
  • 新光-台南 +534
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-士林 +533
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 富邦證券 1,744 left
    sold 47%· paused recently
  • 美林 1,876 left
    sold 41%· ~24 sessions to clear
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 1,252 left
    sold 55%· ~11 sessions to clear
  • 美商高盛 1,775 left
    sold 32%· ~23 sessions to clear
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 1,446 left
    sold 37%· ~26 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 912 left
    sold 49%· paused recently

Desks

  • 兆豐-桃鶯 -2,816
    unclassified
  • 凱基-站前 -675
    unclassified
  • 華南永昌-中正 -515
    unclassified
  • 國泰-敦南 -478
    day-trade · selling pressure
Still selling 7,990 lots ~29 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +5,708 absorbed / -5,348 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

29 historical occurrences (since 2009-04-23)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 55.2%, Sample 29, Median +0.49%, Excess +3.78%, Beat mkt rate 48.3%；60-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 28, Median +3.13%, Excess -1.85%, Beat mkt rate 32.1%；120-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 27, Median +4.33%, Excess +6.8%, Beat mkt rate 44.4%

120 days after: historical avg +18.69%

20-day +7.16%
60-day +6.38%
120-day +18.69%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
55.2%
57.1%
66.7%
Sample
29
28
27
Median
+0.49%
+3.13%
+4.33%
Excess
+3.78%
-1.85%
+6.8%
Beat mkt rate
48.3%
32.1%
44.4%

Over 27 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 18.69%, beat the market by 6.8 pts; win rate 66.7%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 33.35%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

57 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 54.9%, Sample 51, Median +1.43%, Excess +1.72%, Beat mkt rate 49%；60-day: Win 51%, Sample 49, Median +0.53%, Excess +4.69%, Beat mkt rate 44.9%；120-day: Win 52.2%, Sample 46, Median +0.68%, Excess +3.46%, Beat mkt rate 37%

120 days after: historical avg +4.31%

20-day +2.4%
60-day +7.18%
120-day +4.31%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
54.9%
51%
52.2%
Sample
51
49
46
Median
+1.43%
+0.53%
+0.68%
Excess
+1.72%
+4.69%
+3.46%
Beat mkt rate
49%
44.9%
37%

Over 46 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 4.31%, beat the market by 3.46 pts; win rate 52.2%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 9Insufficient data
20-40 86+40.5% +39.7% 100% +24.3%
40-60 128+37.9% +43.5% 96.1% +26.5%
60-80 You are here1009+25% +7.3% 66.5% +7.2%
80-100 1601+1.8% +0.2% 50.3% -16.9%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 62.46, at the 77.4th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+26.9%
Win rate 100% Excess +20.7%
33d
+20.3%
Win rate 100% Excess +14.6%
133d
Now
+9%
Win rate 55.9% Excess -1.1%
1480d
60-day momentum down
+15.3%
Win rate 100% Excess +14.6%
36d
+6.1%
Win rate 62.2% Excess +3.2%
119d
+5.1%
Win rate 50.8% Excess -4.1%
1150d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1480 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 9%, win rate 55.9%, lagged the market by 1.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

47 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.76%, win rate 65.2%, beating the market by +3.66 pts on average.

What does 金山電 do? Company profile

電子零組件業；被動元件；鋁質電解電容器、固態鋁電解電容器與固液混合鋁電解電容器 櫃買中心上櫃

Overview

8042 對應證券為金山電，櫃買中心上櫃股票，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 1970/03/20，2000/10/20 公開發行，2003/01/10 興櫃，2004/03/22 上櫃。總部/公司地址為新北市三重區光復路一段六十八巷十一弄一號二樓；統一編號 03550210；董事長江士勳，總經理江慶信，發言人陳安琪。實收資本額約新台幣 12.94 至 12.95 億元，發行股數約 129,462,549 股，每股面額新台幣 10 元。2024 年報揭露截至 2025/03/31 集團從業員工 1,602 人，2024 年底為 1,457 人。主要股東名單以 2025/04/15 年報資料為準：慶融投資 15.57%、宏浦投資 8.23%、漢霖投資 6.62%、豐熙投資 3.80%、國世銀託管輝立證券（香港）公司投資專戶 3.00%、昶昇投資 2.56%、豐盟投資 2.44%、鴻霖投資 2.31%、江慶盈 2.01%、富安投資 1.76%。集團主要生產/營運據點包含台灣、中國大陸廣州金日科技、廣州金立電子，以及泰國金山電子工業等子公司。公司章程股利政策為年度有盈餘時，依法提列稅款、彌補虧損、法定盈餘公積與必要特別盈餘公積後，由董事會擬具不低於可分配餘額 20% 之盈餘分配議案。

Business

金山電主要從事各種電子器材電容器之製造、加工、買賣與進出口，核心產品為鋁質電解電容器，涵蓋液態電解電容器、固態電解電容器、固液混合鋁質電容器，型態包含導針型、L 型、螺絲型、牛角型、V-CHIP 等。2024 年營收為新台幣 34.30181 億元，年增 7.41%，產品營收比重為液態電解電容器 75.18%、固態電解電容器 24.82%；2025 年第三方資料顯示營收比重約液態電解電容器 75.42%、固態電容器 24.58%。電容器終端應用橫跨電腦/顯示器、白色家電、雲端/伺服器、工業自動化、遊戲機、通訊 5G、車用電子、新能源、醫療健身與電源供應器等。2024 年報揭露全球鋁電解電容應用分布約電腦/顯示器 28%、白色家電 23%、雲端及伺服器 16%、工業自動化 11%、遊戲機 7%。商業模式為以台灣總部研發、銷售與管理，搭配中國大陸與泰國產能供應全球電子製造客戶；主要客戶因契約保密以 A 公司、B 公司揭露，2024 年 A 公司占銷貨 17.51%、B 公司占 14.06%，單一客戶均未超過 20%，客戶集中風險相對有限。年報說明最終下游客戶主要為液晶電視、顯示器、筆記型電腦、電源供應器、主機板及遊戲機等製造商。公司競爭利基包括 50 年以上鋁質電解電容經驗、與日本 HITACHI AIC 技術合作、自行研發電解液等關鍵材料、產品線涵蓋廣、品質與安規認證，以及可配合主要客戶需求開發高壓、低阻抗、高紋波、長壽命與高溫產品。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025：公司年報對 2025 年採審慎樂觀態度，原因是下游客戶庫存調整接近尾聲，電腦、雲端/伺服器、通訊 5G、AI 與儲能設備電源等應用有機會成長；泰國三廠 2025 年第一季試投產，預計第二季量產固態電容、第四季液態電容投產，以承接固態、液態與新產品擴產需求。第三方與媒體資料顯示 2025 年全年營收約 37.65 至 37.66 億元，年增約 8.8%，為歷史次高附近，主要受惠 AI/傳統伺服器與高階電源應用拉貨。2026：截至 2026/06/17，2026 年第一季營收約 11.03 至 11.11 億元、年增約 31% 至 33%，EPS 2.17 元；雲端/伺服器含 AI 營收占比由 2024 年約 17%、2025 年約 22% 提升至 2026Q1 約 35%。成長動能來自 AI 伺服器電源、高壓電容、固液混合/半固態鋁電、BBU、低軌衛星、通訊與工業自動化。需注意 2026Q1 EPS 包含廣州舊廠搬遷補助等一次性業外收益，評估本業時應觀察毛利率、營業利益率與營收結構。部分法說紀錄提到客戶可能因零組件漲價或缺貨而提前拉貨，可能使下半年訂單能見度轉弱。2027：公司公開說法與中央社報導指出 AI 伺服器應用拉貨至 2027 年仍成長可期；若 GB300/後續 AI 伺服器平台、電源供應器、BBU 與資料中心電力架構持續提高高壓、長壽命、低阻抗電容用量，金山電高階液態、固態與固液混合電容出貨有延續性。泰國產能可望受惠 China Plus One 與客戶供應鏈分散要求。2028：未見公司正式量化 2028 財測，合理推估方向為 AI 資料中心、工業自動化、車用電子、儲能與高效電源仍是結構性需求，但成長率取決於 AI 伺服器平台換代、終端庫存循環、泰國廠稼動率與產品組合。主要風險包括鋁箔、電解紙、化學品與導電高分子材料價格波動；中國大陸與泰國人力成本上升；中國與韓國廠商低價競爭；日系高階電容廠在品牌與技術上的壓力；AI 伺服器訂單提前拉貨後的庫存修正；新產能爬坡良率與客戶認證時程；匯率、關稅、地緣政治、資安與氣候風險。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 鋁箔供應商（年報以甲公司、乙公司代號揭露） 直接供應主要原料；2024 年甲公司占進貨淨額 15.96%、乙公司占 15.62%，因契約保密未揭露公司名稱，無法判斷是否為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 電解紙、導針、鋁殼、橡膠蓋、膠套與化學品供應商 主要原料供應來源分布日本、台灣與中國大陸；年報未揭露具名供應商，公司維持兩家以上供應商並對鋁箔、電解紙保有較高庫存以降低斷料風險。
  • 電解液與導電高分子材料 PEDT 供應/研發體系 液態電容需電解液，固態電容需導電高分子材料；公司強調自行研發電解液以提高關鍵材料自主性，但未揭露具名外部供應商。
  • 設備、自動化與測試/安規認證體系 用於產能提升、自動化、品質驗證與 ISO/IATF/RoHS/REACH 等認證；年報未揭露特定設備供應商。
Downstream
  • A 公司 直接主要銷貨客戶；2024 年銷售額新台幣 600,702 仟元，占銷貨淨額 17.51%，因契約保密以代號揭露，無法判斷是否為台股上市櫃公司。
  • B 公司 直接主要銷貨客戶；2024 年銷售額新台幣 482,432 仟元，占銷貨淨額 14.06%，因契約保密以代號揭露，無法判斷是否為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 液晶電視、顯示器、筆記型電腦、電源供應器、主機板及遊戲機製造商 年報揭露之主要終端/下游製造商類型；實際公司名稱未揭露。
  • 雲端/AI 伺服器與電源供應器供應鏈 2026Q1 成長主軸；公司透過 ODM 廠、電池廠與國內外電源供應器大廠導入高壓電容、固態/固液混合電容與 BBU 相關應用，具名客戶未公開。
  • 通訊 5G、低軌衛星、工業自動化、車用電子、新能源與儲能設備客戶 高階電容與新產品應用市場；公司年報與法說/新聞提及為成長或布局方向，但未逐一揭露具名客戶。

Competitors

  • 立隆電 2472 台股上市公司；年報指出金山電在台灣液態鋁電解電容產業中位居立隆電之後，為直接同業。
  • 鈺邦 6449 台股上櫃公司；固態/導電高分子電容同業，年報指出金山電固態電容在台灣位居鈺邦之後。
  • 國巨 2327 台股上市被動元件大廠，透過全球併購布局電阻、電容、電感等產品；與金山電在被動元件客戶資源及部分電容市場有競合。
  • 華新科 2492 台股上市被動元件廠，主力 MLCC 與晶片電阻，非完全同產品但同屬被動元件競爭族群。
  • Nippon Chemi-Con 日本上市/海外公司；全球高階鋁質電解電容主要供應商，年報列為日系高階競爭對手。
  • Nichicon 日本上市/海外公司；全球高階鋁質電解電容主要競爭者。
  • Rubycon 日本非台股公司；全球鋁質電解電容重要品牌，年報列為高階產品主要日系競爭者。
  • Panasonic／Matsushita 日本上市/海外集團；年報以 Matsushita 稱之，為高階電容市場主要日系競爭者。
  • SamYoung、SAMWHA 韓國電容廠；年報列為韓系競爭者，非台股掛牌。
  • 湖南艾華、南通江海 中國大陸鋁電解電容廠；年報列為中國大陸競爭者，非台股掛牌。
Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.