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8926

台汽電 Oil, Gas & Electricity As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 台汽電 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 48Quality 76Growth 99Momentum 87Chips 72

Is 台汽電 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 57th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 8.1%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 43th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 65th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 3.6% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 768.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.84
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 holds 9,654 lots
  • sellers have 2,526 lots left, ~49 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +84% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 新加坡商瑞銀 has accumulated 9,654 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 3,298 lots, has sold 42%, 1,918 left, ~49 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.24pp, mid holders +12, retail -1.29pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -86 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
新加坡商瑞銀台灣摩根士丹利美林摩根大通元大證券中國信託
Distributing
凱基-台北美商高盛統一港商野村宏遠證券富邦-公益
Desks
own scale
群益金鼎凱基-大安新光-台中玉山-大里
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +9,654
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +6,131
    sold 10%· still adding
  • 美林 +3,358
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +2,357
    sold 7%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +1,589
    sold 9%· still adding
  • 中國信託 +1,249
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 凱基-台北 1,918 left
    sold 42%· ~49 sessions to clear
  • 美商高盛 872 left
    sold 71%· paused recently
  • 統一 1,037 left
    sold 54%· paused recently
  • 港商野村 247 left
    sold 79%· paused recently
  • 宏遠證券 361 left
    sold 63%· paused recently
  • 富邦-公益 220 left
    sold 70%· paused recently

Desks

  • 群益金鼎 -2,108
    unclassified
  • 凱基-大安 -2,025
    unclassified
  • 新光-台中 -1,804
    unclassified
  • 玉山-大里 -1,686
    unclassified
Still selling 2,526 lots ~49 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +13,332 absorbed / -1,674 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

38 historical occurrences (since 2008-04-29)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 68.4%, Sample 38, Median +1.81%, Excess +1.92%, Beat mkt rate 52.6%；60-day: Win 64.9%, Sample 37, Median +3.05%, Excess +0.36%, Beat mkt rate 54.1%；120-day: Win 62.2%, Sample 37, Median +6.03%, Excess -1.07%, Beat mkt rate 51.4%

120 days after: historical avg +3.91%

20-day +2.47%
60-day +2.11%
120-day +3.91%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
68.4%
64.9%
62.2%
Sample
38
37
37
Median
+1.81%
+3.05%
+6.03%
Excess
+1.92%
+0.36%
-1.07%
Beat mkt rate
52.6%
54.1%
51.4%

Over 37 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 3.91%, lagged the market by 1.07 pts; win rate 62.2%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 768.16%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

83 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 58.1%, Sample 74, Median +0.9%, Excess +0.86%, Beat mkt rate 47.3%；60-day: Win 54.2%, Sample 72, Median +0.66%, Excess +1.56%, Beat mkt rate 51.4%；120-day: Win 52.9%, Sample 70, Median +0.6%, Excess +0.94%, Beat mkt rate 47.1%

120 days after: historical avg +3.53%

20-day +1.67%
60-day +3.59%
120-day +3.53%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
58.1%
54.2%
52.9%
Sample
74
72
70
Median
+0.9%
+0.66%
+0.6%
Excess
+0.86%
+1.56%
+0.94%
Beat mkt rate
47.3%
51.4%
47.1%

Over 70 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 3.53%, beat the market by 0.94 pts; win rate 52.9%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 163+2% +0.2% 53.4% +5.6%
20-40 177+13.1% +9.8% 79.1% +9%
40-60 166+5.9% +5.1% 83.1% -9.3%
60-80 You are here541+13.9% +9.7% 80.2% -13.2%
80-100 1990+16.3% +11.9% 82.9% -0.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 19.46, at the 65.4th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+8.6%
Win rate 76.2% Excess +8.3%
214d
Now
+3.3%
Win rate 59.2% Excess -8.7%
265d
+5.2%
Win rate 57.4% Excess -3.3%
1553d
60-day momentum down
+5.4%
Win rate 70% Excess +7.1%
90d
+18.2%
Win rate 86.6% Excess -5.9%
186d
+9.7%
Win rate 73.3% Excess +2.7%
849d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 265 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 3.3%, win rate 59.2%, lagged the market by 8.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

79 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.11%, win rate 59%, beating the market by -0.28 pts on average.

What does 台汽電 do? Company profile

油電燃氣業；電業投資、汽電共生、電力工程、再生能源與售電服務 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

8926 對應證券為台灣汽電共生股份有限公司，簡稱台汽電，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司成立於 1992 年 5 月 7 日，1997 年 4 月 24 日公開發行，2000 年 5 月 8 日上櫃，2003 年 8 月 25 日轉上市。總部位於台北市內湖區瑞光路 392 號 6 樓。董事長為王振勇，總經理為陳意通。依 2026-06-16 台灣證券交易所上市公司基本資料，實收資本額為新台幣 7,302,820,000 元，已發行普通股 730,282,000 股，每股面額新台幣 10 元，無特別股與私募股。依 2025 年度年報，截至 2026 年 3 月 31 日員工合計 340 人。主要股東方面，依 2025 年度年報 2026 年 3 月 31 日資料，台灣電力股份有限公司持股 200,918,361 股、27.51%，為最大股東；建聖投資 2.62%，大亞電線電纜 2.53%，東元電機 1.67%，柏翰投資 1.39%，台朔重工 1.31%，王洪樂音 1.12%，渣打託管 iShares 新興市場 ETF 1.07%，大通託管先進星光先進總合國際股票指數 0.93%，顏月霞 0.84%。公司主要轉投資事業包括星能電力、森霸電力、星元電力、國光電力等民營天然氣電廠，以及星能、台汽電綠能、星寶電力、星曄綠能、鑫光電能、苗栗風力、哈瑪栗能源科技等再生能源或工程、售電相關公司。公司官網揭露主要轉投資之星能、森霸、星元、國光等 4 家民營天然氣發電廠總裝置容量約 3,650MW，約占全國電力總裝置容量 4.5%、民營電廠總裝置容量 30%；年報另以已商轉 IPP 口徑列示其投資電廠占國內民營裝置容量約 50.35%。

Business

台汽電定位為專業電業開發公司，主要業務涵蓋電廠、汽電共生廠、再生能源與輸變電工程之規劃、設計、採購、安裝、專案管理與財務規劃；電廠、汽電共生廠、再生能源電廠與共同升壓站之投資、經營及管理；電廠、汽電共生廠、共同升壓站、輸變電工程與能源相關之工程承攬、技術及諮詢顧問服務；以及新能源業務開發、再生能源購售電業務與輔助服務。依 2025 年度年報，2025 年主要業務收入合計新台幣 7,611,519 仟元，其中銷貨收入 1,768,279 仟元、占 23%；工程收入 5,515,727 仟元、占 73%；運維及服務收入 327,513 仟元、占 4%。銷售地區為內銷 100%。商品與服務包括：以獨資、合資或 BOT 方式興建汽電共生廠，將蒸汽與電能售予合作廠家或鄰近用戶；提供民營電廠、汽電共生廠之工程規劃、財務規劃、專案管理、燃料、環保與操作維護整體服務；投資民營電廠與建廠；承攬工程；再生能源投資開發、工程承攬、運轉維護與售電；以及輔助服務市場業務。公司自建官田汽電共生廠，裝置容量 48MW，主要提供客戶電力與蒸汽；亦投資大園汽電共生廠。民營電廠投資方面，星能電力營運彰濱天然氣電廠 507MW，森霸電力營運豐德天然氣電廠 2,114MW，星元電力營運星元天然氣電廠 549MW，國光電力營運國光天然氣電廠 480MW。2025 年主要銷貨客戶依年報可判讀為沃旭能源股份有限公司約 40.00%、台灣電力股份有限公司約 27.71%、其他約 32.29%；2024 年資料亦出現台鎔科技材料為主要客戶之一。重要合約包含官田廠與台電之電能購售契約，以及與佳和實業、廣泰金屬工業、欣岱實業、尚穩環保科技、希世比能源科技、大統益、新農科技等之官田廠電能或蒸汽購售合約。再生能源與售電方面，台汽電綠能為 100% 轉投資子公司，依 2025 年 12 月法說會資料，具風力、太陽光電、水力發電轉供實績，累計轉供超過 8.03 億度綠電，客戶涵蓋科技電子、金融、服飾零售、電信與傳統製造業等。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年的主要成長動能包括：第一，森霸電力豐德電廠二期 1,100MW 已於 2025 年 5 月正式商轉，可望提高轉投資收益與台汽電集團 IPP 曝險，但實際貢獻仍受 PPA 條件、氣價、稼動率與權益法認列影響。第二，國光電力取得台電 2028 年商轉燃氣機組電力採購標案 1,200MW；依 2025 年 12 月法說會，台汽電於 2025 年 7 月參與國光電力現金增資新台幣 3,819,376 仟元，增資後持股提高至 45.83%，水土保持計畫已於 2025 年 10 月取得審查核可函，仍在辦理籌設許可等文件，若如期推進，2028 年前後可能成為中長期權益法收益與工程/管理服務來源。第三，再生能源工程與投資仍是策略重點，公司承攬沃旭二期與台電離岸風電二期陸上變電站、輸電線工程，並持續爭取離岸風力陸上變電站統包工程；陸域風電方面有彰化漢寶芳苑風力發電開發案、苗栗風力機組重置；太陽光電方面有彰化永興漁電共生、烏山頭二期水面型光電與新設光電標案評估；地熱方面與台電及國外地熱團隊推動大屯山地熱合作，已完成第一階段 3G 探勘與潛熱模型，第二階段鑽探仍在評估規劃。第四，台汽電綠能售電、綠電轉供、外部再生能源供應合作、電力交易平台輔助服務代操作、儲能與虛擬電廠等，可望受企業 RE100、低碳供應鏈與電力市場開放推動。第五，官田汽電廠短期以提高膠片、SRF、固態生質燃料等替代燃料比例、減少煤炭使用、因應碳費與設備改善為主；中長期則評估機組更新改建與燃氣化。主要風險包括：工程收入占比高，案量與工程進度會造成營收波動；國光二期等大型電廠投資資本支出高、許可與工程期程長，利率與融資成本上升會影響報酬；天然氣、燃煤、替代燃料與匯率波動影響成本；環保法規、碳費、生煤減量與低碳轉型提高既有汽電共生廠改造壓力；再生能源案場面臨電網容量、地方溝通、環評、併網與政策調整風險；儲能與輔助服務市場已出現部分服務價格下滑或供給過剩；IPP 與台電購售電合約、PPA 到期、訴訟或修約爭議仍須追蹤。整體而言，2025 至 2028 年台汽電的投資主軸由傳統汽電共生與 IPP 持續延伸至燃氣機組擴建、再生能源工程、綠電售電與輔助服務，成長性中等偏正向，但高度受政策、電價制度、工程進度與資本成本影響。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 台灣中油股份有限公司 天然氣等能源供應與能源產業關係企業；台灣中油為國營事業、未上市。年報風險段落提及外購電廠燃料與能源價格波動，法說及年報亦顯示集團重點為燃氣電廠，故列為燃料供應鏈關鍵上游，具推估成分。
  • 潤弘精密工程事業股份有限公司 2597 年報主要供應商資料可判讀 2024 年進貨金額 873,191 仟元、占進貨淨額約 10.46%；為工程承攬或營造相關供應商。
  • 發電主設備供應商 年報揭露重要設備之設置、維護與零組件更換由原設備廠家協助；未逐一揭露廠商名稱，可能包括國際燃氣輪機、汽輪機、發電機、變電與控制系統供應商，屬未具名上游。
  • 台灣電力股份有限公司 台電為未上市國營事業，同時是最大股東、購售電對手與技術支援來源；年報提及電力系統技術可透過大股東台電獲取支援。
Downstream
  • 台灣電力股份有限公司 未上市國營事業；台汽電官田廠與台電簽有電能購售契約，轉投資 IPP 亦以台電 PPA 為核心下游客戶；2025 年主要銷貨客戶之一，約占 27.71%。
  • 沃旭能源股份有限公司 沃旭台灣子公司，非台股掛牌；2025 年主要銷貨客戶約占 40.00%，主要與離岸風電陸上變電站、輸電線等工程承攬案相關。
  • 台鎔科技材料股份有限公司 6947 2024 年主要銷貨客戶之一；台股櫃買掛牌公司，與台汽電工程或能源服務案相關，2025 年年報表格抽取未能確認其 2025 年比重。
  • 佳和實業股份有限公司 1449 官田廠購售汽合約客戶，台股上市公司。
  • 大統益股份有限公司 1232 官田廠購售蒸汽合約客戶，台股上市公司。
  • 廣泰金屬工業股份有限公司 官田廠供給電能或蒸汽合約客戶；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 欣岱實業股份有限公司 官田廠購售蒸汽合約客戶；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 尚穩環保科技股份有限公司 官田廠購售蒸汽合約客戶；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。

Competitors

  • 麥寮汽電股份有限公司 民營電廠 IPP 業者，非台股掛牌；與台汽電轉投資 IPP 在台電購電、燃氣或火力電廠開發與容量市場上具同業比較性。
  • 和平電力股份有限公司 民營電廠 IPP 業者，非台股掛牌；為台灣民營火力電廠同業。
  • 長生電力股份有限公司 民營電廠 IPP 業者，非台股掛牌；為台灣民營火力電廠同業。
  • 嘉惠電力股份有限公司 民營電廠 IPP 業者，非台股掛牌；為台灣民營火力電廠同業。
  • 新桃電力股份有限公司 民營電廠 IPP 業者，非台股掛牌；為台灣民營火力電廠同業。
  • 中興電工機械股份有限公司 1513 台股上市公司；在電力設備、工程、儲能與電力系統服務領域與台汽電子公司星能及再生能源、輔助服務布局有部分競合。
  • 華城電機股份有限公司 1519 台股上市公司；重電、變壓器與電力工程設備供應商，在輸變電工程與電網投資受惠題材上具可比性，但非 IPP 營運商。
  • 士林電機廠股份有限公司 1503 台股上市公司；重電與電力設備供應商，在輸變電、電網工程與能源工程供應鏈具部分競合。
  • 亞力電機股份有限公司 1514 台股上市公司；電力設備與工程服務公司，與台汽電工程承攬、變電站及電力系統工程業務有部分可比性。
  • 大同股份有限公司 2371 台股上市公司；重電、電力設備與能源相關業務具可比性，但與台汽電核心 IPP 投資業務不同。
Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.