Ask AI to review this stock
Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.
Tell your AI:
Help me set up FinLab and analyze 9938 百和. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=9938
9938
steady quality, discounted valuation, no active signal today.
Is 百和 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
-
Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 69th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.8%.
-
Valuation is low.PE is in the 17th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 35th percentile.
-
Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -5.4% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Distribution to retail — bearish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -17% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 統一-台南 has accumulated 1,317 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 華南永昌-彰化 peaked at 985 lots, has sold 29%, 698 left, ~24 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -7.08pp, mid holders -11, retail +8.39pp — drifting down to retail.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -5,765 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 統一-台南 +1,317
- 元大-彰化 +1,265
- 兆豐證券 +1,131
- 凱基-三峽 +989
- 富邦-和美 +868
- 永興-台中 +753
Distributing
- 華南永昌-彰化 698 left
- 國泰-敦南 402 left
- 富邦-彰化 230 left
- 新光-台中 311 left
- 富邦-台中 79 left
- 元大-南屯 268 left
Desks
- 摩根大通 -6,894
- 台灣摩根士丹利 -4,742
- 新加坡商瑞銀 -3,636
- 凱基-台北 -3,545
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 358 | +5.1% | -5.3% | 36.9% | -17.3% |
| 20-40 You are here | 517 | +17.7% | +20.9% | 69.4% | -5.9% |
| 40-60 | 616 | +10.8% | -3.5% | 45.9% | -5.6% |
| 60-80 | 971 | +28.5% | +27.6% | 70% | +15.7% |
| 80-100 | 581 | +5.9% | +15.1% | 65.6% | -6.7% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 12.91, at the 35.0th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum down”: across 431 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 4.2%, win rate 48.7%, lagged the market by 0.8%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
34 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.54%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +2.5 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
63 times historically; 60-day forward avg +10.39%, win rate 61%, beating the market by +5.78 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
50 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.89%, win rate 54%, beating the market by -1.64 pts on average.
What does 百和 do? Company profile
Overview
9938 對應台灣百和工業股份有限公司，為臺灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。依證交所 OpenAPI 115/06/16 資料，公司簡稱百和，成立日為 1985/01/14，上市日為 2001/01/12，總部位於彰化縣和美鎮好修里和港路575號，董事長與總經理均列為鄭誠禕，發言人為葉桂珠，實收資本額新台幣2,979,639,020元，已發行普通股297,963,902股。公司官網投資人頁揭露 113 年度1-12月查核營收15,458,568千元、前一年12,445,203千元，員工人數全球9,200人以上（截至113/12/31）。公司官網英文首頁另稱集團由鄭森煤與兄弟於1979年創立，以三鉤牌黏扣帶取得國際知名度；此為集團創業沿革，與上市公司登記成立日1985/01/14不同。主要股東方面，公司公布113/04/21名單包含富邦人壽13,500,000股（4.53%）、再興投資12,945,652股（4.34%）、中華郵政12,241,000股（4.11%）、群益金鼎證券受託保管益群證券投資專戶9,528,228股（3.20%）、鄭誠禕6,269,553股（2.10%）、鄭程綜5,973,424股（2.00%）、南山人壽5,686,000股（1.91%）、鄭智瑜5,342,151股（1.79%）、鄭森煤4,943,976股（1.66%）、國泰人壽4,666,000股（1.57%）。
Business
百和定位為全球運動鞋、成衣與功能性產品的紡織輔料與材料供應商，核心產品包括黏扣帶（魔鬼氈、Touch Fastener）、Easy Tape 射出鉤、數位緹花布、四面彈性布料、針織經編緹花網布、鬆緊帶、織帶、鞋帶、反光材料、2D/3D商標、配料加工、竹炭產品及相關複合材料。官網列示應用範圍涵蓋鞋類、成衣、個人衛生用品、電子、交通運輸、醫療與輔具、軍警政府、消費品等；官網亦強調其從材料供應商延伸為整合內外部半成品與材料的加值解決方案供應商。商業模式以 OEM/ODM 與客製化材料開發、品牌/代工廠共同開發、全球生產基地就近供應為主，生產與銷售據點分布於台灣、中國、越南、印尼，北美設服務與銷售據點。公司法說/產品營收資料摘要顯示，2025年上半年集團產品營收比重約為織帶/鞋帶46.1%、黏扣帶12.5%、鬆緊帶11.3%、射出帶7.3%、其他4.2%，其餘主要來自針織經編緹花等產品；2024年相關摘要亦顯示織帶/鞋帶約46%-48%為最大品項。MoneyDJ 與法說摘要指出主要客戶/終端品牌包含 Adidas、Nike、FILA、PUMA、New Balance、Under Armour、Timberland、Skechers、Clarks、Reebok、李寧、安踏等，直接或間接客戶包含寶成、豐泰、聚陽等代工或成衣供應鏈；產品亦打入宏達電 VR 相關供應鏈。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025-2028 展望重點為運動鞋服庫存循環復甦、全球品牌供應鏈分散、越南與印尼產能利用率提升、高附加價值網布與緹花產品成長，以及大型運動賽事帶動訂單。2025-2026：公開報導指出鞋材需求最壞時點可能已過，2026世界盃足球賽帶動運動品牌備貨，百和針織經編緹花網布動能較強；報導並稱該產品前一年營收約34.26億元、年增39%，在新產能、核心客戶與新興客戶放量、打入成衣供應鏈下仍具成長空間。越南新廠稼動率由約35%往50%以上提升，印尼第四期廠完工，有助承接品牌與鞋廠、成衣廠新南向布局。2027-2028：公司已取得 Adidas 世足賽隊徽訂單出貨經驗，後續 2027 年亞洲盃、2028 年洛杉磯奧運及其他國際賽事可能帶來隊徽、織標、鞋服輔料與功能性材料需求。長期成長動能包括：一、品牌端要求材料差異化、輕量化、環保與高機能，百和可用緹花網布、四面彈、反光、回收紗、熱保溫材料等提高單鞋/單件用料價值；二、越南、印尼、中國與台灣的多地生產可配合客戶分散產地與反規避洗產地要求；三、Material Hub、客製化材料平台與 ODM 能力有助縮短品牌開發流程。主要風險包括：全球消費景氣與品牌庫存波動、Nike/Adidas 等大客戶集中度、關稅與貿易政策、匯率與油價造成尼龍/聚酯/橡膠原料成本波動、東南亞新產能折舊與稼動率不如預期、中低階黏扣帶標準品面臨中國與台灣同業價格競爭、ESG與回收材料規範提高成本。2027-2028 的量化營收與獲利未見公司正式財測，屬事件與產能邏輯推估。
Supply Chain
- 耀億工業 4430 MoneyDJ 資料稱其為百和尼龍單絲供應來源之一；為台股上市櫃公司。
- 力泰 MoneyDJ 資料稱其為百和尼龍單絲供應來源之一；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
- 筑強 MoneyDJ 資料稱其為百和尼龍複絲供應來源之一；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
- 春億 MoneyDJ 資料稱其為百和尼龍複絲供應來源之一；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
- 尼龍、聚酯、天然/合成橡膠、rPET 等原料供應商 百和主要材料推估包含尼龍單絲/複絲、聚酯纖維、橡膠、回收聚酯與功能性紗線；具體年度供應商與占比未能由公開來源完整確認。
- 寶成工業 9904 製鞋代工客戶/下游供應鏈，百和產品間接供應 Nike、Adidas 等品牌鞋類。
- 豐泰企業 9910 製鞋代工客戶/下游供應鏈，百和產品用於運動鞋材與輔料。
- 聚陽實業 1477 成衣供應鏈客戶之一，百和材料可用於成衣輔料、鬆緊帶、織帶與標章。
- 宏達電 2498 MoneyDJ 資料稱百和織帶、鬆緊帶及射出鉤等產品打入其 VR 客戶供應鏈。
- Nike 美國上市國際運動品牌，為百和重要終端品牌客戶之一；台股無掛牌代號。
- Adidas 德國上市國際運動品牌，為百和重要終端品牌客戶之一；台股無掛牌代號。
- New Balance、Under Armour、PUMA、Skechers、Clarks、FILA、李寧、安踏等品牌 國際或中國運動鞋服品牌，透過品牌指定、代工廠採購或共同開發形成下游需求；非台股上市櫃公司。
Competitors
- 3M 美國上市公司，黏扣帶與功能性材料為百和國際競爭者之一；非台股上市櫃。
- Velcro Companies 黏扣帶發明品牌與國際競爭者，未確認為台股上市櫃。
- 喜可工業 台灣黏扣帶製造商，104與公司網站資料顯示其專業生產黏扣帶；未確認為台股上市櫃。
- 國紡企業 台灣黏扣帶與魔鬼氈製造商，104資料稱其為台灣大型黏扣帶工廠；未確認為台股上市櫃。
- 百和興業-KY 8404 同屬百和相關體系且產品相近，台股上市；較偏關係企業/同集團平行公司，非完全獨立競爭者。
Sources（17）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.