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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1608 華榮. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1608
1608
steady quality, discounted valuation, no active signal today.
Is 華榮 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 68th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.9%.
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Valuation is low.PE is in the 2th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 9th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 2.1% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Distribution to retail — bearish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -10% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 臺銀-高雄 has accumulated 694 lots since the start (sold 4%), still adding.
- Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 3,380 lots, has sold 80%, 690 left, ~4 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -2.13pp, mid holders -2, retail +1.59pp — drifting down to retail.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -5,862 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 臺銀-高雄 +694
- 國泰證券 +556
- 永豐金證券 +545
- 華南永昌-小港 +498
- 統一-內湖 +440
- 國泰-桃園 +434
Distributing
- 美商高盛 690 left
- 台灣摩根士丹利 1,317 left
- 中國信託-高雄 302 left
- 國票-安和 607 left
- 元大證券 234 left
- 凱基-城中 273 left
Desks
- 美林 -3,431
- 富邦-七賢 -2,832
- 元大-虎尾 -1,565
- 富邦證券 -835
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 You are here | 486 | -0.2% | -14.5% | 28.4% | -9.5% |
| 20-40 | 527 | +24.2% | +12.7% | 67.9% | +1% |
| 40-60 | 511 | +28.1% | +24% | 65.2% | +6.7% |
| 60-80 | 460 | +49.7% | +34.5% | 85.9% | +15.8% |
| 80-100 | 240 | +39.3% | +39.3% | 59.6% | +14% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 6.31, at the 8.9th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 460 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 17.6%, win rate 54.1%, beat the market by 6.8%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
26 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.68%, win rate 61.5%, beating the market by +1.64 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
69 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.88%, win rate 54.7%, beating the market by +2.67 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
65 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.94%, win rate 61.5%, beating the market by +5.2 pts on average.
What does 華榮 do? Company profile
Overview
華榮電線電纜股份有限公司創立於1956年，初期名為華榮銅鐵工業股份有限公司，1987年10月5日更名，1988年7月11日股票上市。總部位於高雄市前金區中正四路170號，主要工廠位於高雄市仁武區高楠公路30號。董事長為王宏仁，總經理為黃華志。依公開資料，股本約新台幣6,327,735,060元，已發行普通股632,773,506股；公司官網揭露資本額約63.2億元。員工規模方面，官網列451人，113年報列合併或年報口徑從業員工合計661人，兩者口徑可能不同。主要股東依113年報停止過戶日114年4月20日資料為第一伸銅科技股份有限公司持股32.96%、華鴻投資股份有限公司7.39%、王楊碧娥5.24%。公司與日本昭和電線電纜株式會社有技術合作歷史，並持有或投資第一伸銅、中宇環保、遠傳電信、合晶科技、金居開發、華廣生技、景傳光電等事業。
Business
華榮為電線電纜與銅材製造商，產品包括高品質無氧銅棒、無氧銅線、特殊無氧銅材、全鋁線、鋼芯鋁線、PVC電線電纜、耐火耐熱電纜、交連PE電纜、低煙無毒電纜、電梯線、波管電纜、環保電纜、海底電纜、69kV、161kV、345kV超高壓電纜、光纖電纜、區域網路電纜、通信電纜、光纖絲、太陽能光伏電纜與太陽能電池用鍍錫扁平銅帶。113年報揭露營業比重為電力電纜40%、銅線24%、銅片22%、光纖電纜1%、其他13%。商業模式以製造銅材與線纜、供應電力與通信基礎建設、承攬超高壓與海纜統包工程為主；銷售以內銷為主、外銷為輔，113年報指出主要產品內銷比率約94%、外銷約6%。直接銷售對象包括高科技工業、上市櫃公司、公營機構，其餘以經銷商銷售。主要終端應用包括台電輸配電與強韌電網、離岸風電與再生能源併網、捷運/高鐵/鐵路/工業園區建設、石化與火力電廠、5G、FTTH、雲端資料、物聯網、車聯網、電動車、綠能儲能、AI伺服器高導電高散熱材料等。113年銷貨前十大中僅客戶A超過10%，占銷貨淨額18.28%，年報因契約約定以代號揭露。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028年主要成長動能來自台電強化電網韌性建設計畫、161kV與345kV超高壓電纜及統包工程、離岸風電加強電力網、太陽能與再生能源併網、交通建設與大型建廠電力線需求，以及5G/FTTH/雲端/物聯網帶動的光纖光纜需求。公司113年報明列114年預估銷售量為銅線8,400噸、電力電纜13,773噸、光纖電纜52,987 KM-C、銅片10,200噸，並指出ECFA取消0關稅造成部分銅線銷售減少，將由電力電纜承擔。新產品與技術方向包括345kV特高壓輸電線纜與接續材料、161kV超高壓輸配線纜、蛛網光纜、溝槽光纜細徑化、充膠束管芯數倍增光纜、FTTH屋內耐彎G657A光纜、低磨擦/微簇型/波管光纜、高品質無氧銅DIP、異型材、太陽能與醫療用極細銅材、EPR耐燃控制電纜、低煙無毒與消防耐火耐燃電纜。中長期看，能源轉型、電網地下化與智慧化、AI資料中心用電、電動車與綠能儲能對高導電銅材的需求有利於產品組合升級；但風險包括銅價與XLPE等原料價格波動、美元匯率與進口料源風險、ECFA與區域關稅競爭、國內建築與建廠景氣循環、同業競爭壓縮毛利、政府能源政策與公共工程進度變動、統包工程執行能力要求提高，以及轉投資評價損益造成獲利波動。2026至2028之具體營收或獲利數字未見公司正式財測，本段屬依年報營業計畫與產業政策延伸之分析。
Supply Chain
- 國外電解銅板供應商 主要原料來源；113年報揭露電解銅板為國外進口，主要進貨廠商因契約約定以廠商甲、乙、丙代稱，未揭露實名。
- 國外超高壓絕緣料XLPE供應商 超高壓電纜用絕緣材料來源；113年報揭露XLPE為國外進口，未揭露具體供應商。
- 日本昭和電線電纜株式會社 歷史技術合作對象；非台股掛牌公司，提供電力電纜、通信電纜等技術合作背景。
- 第一伸銅科技股份有限公司 2009 華榮重要子公司與轉投資，主要經營銅片等銅製品製銷加工；屬上游/關係企業銅材鏈。
- 台灣電力股份有限公司 電力電纜與超高壓輸配電工程重要終端需求方；國營事業，非台股上市櫃公司。
- 中華電信股份有限公司 2412 通信銅纜、光纖到家與5G/寬頻網路建設相關終端需求方；年報提及中華電信通信銅纜趨勢與FTTH/5G需求。
- 公民營公共建設與交通建設單位 捷運、高鐵、鐵路、工業園區、科學園區、大型建廠、石化與電廠工程之電力線、低煙無毒、耐火耐燃與特殊鎧裝電纜需求；多為政府機關、公共工程或未特定客戶。
- 海外銅線與電纜客戶 公司拓展大陸、泰國、日本、奧地利、美國、韓國等市場並取得認證或訂單；具體客戶未公開。
Competitors
- 華新麗華股份有限公司 1605 台股上市電線電纜與銅材同業，年報列為上中游關聯企業之一。
- 大亞電線電纜股份有限公司 1609 台股上市電線電纜同業，產品含電力線纜、漆包線與能源相關業務。
- 大山電線電纜股份有限公司 1615 台股上市電線電纜同業，競爭於建築用線、電力電纜與公共工程需求。
- 宏泰電工股份有限公司 1612 台股上市電線電纜同業，競爭於電力電纜、通信線與相關線材。
- 合機電線電纜股份有限公司 1618 台股上市電線電纜同業，競爭於電力電纜、特殊電纜與工程市場。
- 億泰電線電纜股份有限公司 1616 台股上市電線電纜同業，競爭於建築、電力與通信線纜市場。
- 台一國際股份有限公司 1613 台股上市電線電纜與漆包線同業。
- 太平洋電線電纜股份有限公司 台股上市電線電纜同業，年報列為SCR與無氧銅廠商之一。
Sources（9）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.