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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1713 國化. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1713
1713
quality needs a look, discounted valuation, no active signal today.
Is 國化 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 14th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 5.2%.
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Valuation is low.PE is in the 10th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 7th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 19.5% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -1% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 元大-莒光 has accumulated 896 lots since the start (sold 0%), now trimming.
- Main distributor 玉山-高雄 peaked at 268 lots, has sold 69%, 82 left, ~68 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.39pp, mid holders +0, retail -0.43pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -100 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 元大-莒光 +896
- 寶盛 +783
- 兆豐-復興 +419
- 兆豐-台中港 +340
- 凱基-台北 +319
- 摩根大通 +272
Distributing
- 玉山-高雄 82 left
- 合庫-台中 61 left
- 宏遠-台南 28 left
- 康和-高雄 89 left
- 元大-沙鹿 34 left
- 元大-高雄 9 left
Desks
- 國泰-忠孝 -301
- 華南永昌-林口 -210
- 華南永昌-中正 -197
- 元大-仁愛 -191
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 You are here | 1557 | +20.2% | +12.3% | 82.7% | +1.3% |
| 20-40 | 488 | +4.9% | +3% | 70.7% | -5.7% |
| 40-60 | 421 | +8.6% | +6.5% | 75.1% | -4.8% |
| 60-80 | 272 | +5.1% | +5.1% | 70.6% | -8.9% |
| 80-100 | 204 | +24.9% | +29.2% | 98% | +2.9% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 11.13, at the 6.7th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1182 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 9.9%, win rate 68.4%, lagged the market by 0%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
31 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.44%, win rate 64.5%, beating the market by -2.46 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
58 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.02%, win rate 61.8%, beating the market by +0.86 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
38 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.95%, win rate 61.1%, beating the market by -2.22 pts on average.
What does 國化 do? Company profile
Overview
1713 對應國泰化工廠股份有限公司，簡稱國化，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 1962/12/11，公開發行日為 1986/03/05，上市掛牌日為 1990/01/31。總部地址為台北市忠孝東路四段320號12樓，主要工廠據 MoneyDJ 資料位於屏東枋寮。董事長為應柔爾，總經理與發言人為洪志成。實收資本額約新台幣 1,509,517,000 元，已發行普通股 150,951,700 股。Yahoo 股市與 Goodinfo 揭露董監持股比例約 23.71%。主要股東與內部人持股方面，公開資料顯示中城投資股份有限公司約 23,146 張、恆昌投資股份有限公司約 19,572 張、利泰投資股份有限公司約 16,213 張，洪志成個人約 1,398 張；上述持股資料取自 2026 年 3 月附近公開彙整資料，實際最新股東名冊仍應以公開資訊觀測站、年報與股務代理資料為準。員工規模方面，Investing.com 揭露員工約 91 人，較早期永續報告亦曾揭露員工總數 91 人；此數字可能隨年度變動。
Business
國化為特用化學品製造商，主要產品包括保險粉／低亞硫酸鈉、氧化鋅／鋅氧粉、吊白塊／甲醛合次硫酸氫鈉、重亞硫酸鈉、鋅粉及還原洗淨劑等，並以 CATHAY 自有品牌銷售。公司官網表示產品銷往日本、韓國、中國大陸、東南亞、歐洲、美國及澳洲等地。產品應用包括紡織染整、紙漿漂白、橡膠與 ABS 聚合、玻璃與陶瓷助熔、電子材料配料、化妝品防曬美白配方、工業廢水處理、製革化學品、油漆防鏽與化學還原劑。MoneyDJ 彙整之產品用途指出：保險粉為紙漿漂白及紡織染整強力漂染助劑；煆燒氧化鋅用於釉藥、玻璃、電子產品及飼料添加微量元素；輕質氧化鋅用於橡膠加硫促進、化妝品與電子光電傳導增強；吊白塊用於合成橡膠、ABS 聚合、高溫印染還原及石油鑽探抑氧；重亞硫酸鈉用於工業廢水處理與製革；鋅粉用於油漆防鏽與化學還原。營收結構方面，公開網頁可查到較舊的 2012 年產品營收比重：氧化鋅粉約 31.83%、保險粉約 27.96%、重亞硫酸鈉約 17.30%、吊白塊約 14.92%、其他約 8.12%；目前未在可查網頁中取得 2025 或 2026 年完整產品別營收占比，因此不應直接沿用為現況，只能作為歷史產品結構參考。商業模式為採購鋅塊、液鹼、硫磺等原料後製成化工中間品與特用化學品，銷售給國內外工業客戶；本業之外，公司獲利高度受轉投資與資產活化影響，公開法說摘要指出 2025 年業外收入主要來自和淞科技、利華羊毛等轉投資股利與過往土地處分比較基期。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025 年公司營收約新台幣 4.60 億元、年減約 12.87%，EPS 約 3.87 元，較 2024 年 EPS 10.31 元下降，主因 2024 年有處分土地等一次性業外收益墊高基期，且 2025 年本業受全球需求疲弱、低價外貨競爭、國際鋅價波動及匯率因素影響。2026 年展望方面，法說會摘要與市場報導指出，國化預期可認列和淞科技與利華羊毛等轉投資股利收入接近新台幣 4 億元，其中和淞科技為重要支撐；本業則需觀察鋅價走勢、關稅政策、地緣政治與終端需求復甦。成長動能包括：一、若國際鋅價溫和上行且公司採購節奏得宜，氧化鋅與鋅粉相關產品毛利可能改善；二、產品創新與技術升級有助提高附加價值；三、持續處分或活化高雄舊廠閒置土地等資產可能帶來非經常性收益；四、和淞科技等轉投資若受半導體廠務、氣體設備與高科技廠需求帶動，仍可透過股利或投資收益支撐國化獲利。2027 至 2028 年較缺乏公司明確量化指引，合理推估重點仍在本業化工產品價格與銷量、原料鋅塊／液鹼／硫磺成本、出口市場競爭、匯率、環保與工安成本、以及轉投資公司配息能力。主要風險為：中國大陸低價競爭、鋅價劇烈波動造成存貨與毛利風險、台幣升值壓縮出口收益、化工安全與環保法規成本上升、產品成熟導致本業成長有限、獲利過度依賴業外與轉投資、資產處分收益不可持續。
Supply Chain
- 鋅塊供應商 主要原料之一；MoneyDJ 指出鋅塊多自國外進口，來源包括澳洲、韓國等，採購成本易受國際鋅價與運輸成本波動影響；未查得國化公開揭露特定供應商名稱。
- 台灣液鹼供應商 主要原料之一；MoneyDJ 指出液鹼主要由台灣生產商供應，但未查得國化公開揭露特定供應商。
- 台灣硫磺供應商 主要原料之一；MoneyDJ 指出硫磺主要於國內購入，但未查得國化公開揭露特定供應商。
- 化工製程設備與工安環保服務商 國化屬化學品製造業，需反應、儲槽、粉體、廢水、空污、工安監測等設備與服務；具體供應商未於可查公開資料中確認。
- 紡織染整與印染業客戶 使用保險粉、吊白塊、還原洗淨劑等作為漂白、染色助劑、還原劑與拔染用途；公開資料未揭露具名客戶。
- 造紙與紙漿業客戶 使用保險粉作為紙漿漂白與脫墨漂白助劑；公開資料未揭露具名客戶。
- 橡膠、ABS 與塑膠聚合業客戶 使用氧化鋅作為橡膠加硫促進與增強材料，使用吊白塊於合成橡膠及 ABS 聚合相關用途；公開資料未揭露具名客戶。
- 玻璃、陶瓷、電子材料與化妝品業客戶 使用氧化鋅作為玻璃助熔、陶瓷釉藥、電子光電傳導增強、化妝品防曬美白等配方材料；公開資料未揭露具名客戶。
- 工業廢水處理、製革、油漆與防鏽材料客戶 使用重亞硫酸鈉作為工業廢水處理劑與製革化學品，使用鋅粉於油漆防鏽與化學還原用途；公開資料未揭露具名客戶。
Competitors
- 永光 1711 台股上市化工同業，產品組合與國化不完全相同；可作為台灣化學／特用化學品族群比較對象。
- 東鹼 1708 台股上市化工同業，產品組合與國化不完全相同；可作為基礎化學品與出口型化工公司比較。
- 和桐 1714 台股上市化工同業，產品組合與國化不完全相同；可作為化工景氣、原料成本與出口競爭比較。
- 柳化股份 MoneyDJ 列為保險粉相關國外競爭廠商；非台股掛牌公司。
- 閏土股份 MoneyDJ 列為保險粉相關國外競爭廠商；中國大陸上市公司，非台股掛牌。
- 浙江龍盛 MoneyDJ 列為保險粉相關國外競爭廠商；中國大陸上市公司，非台股掛牌。
- 湖北宜化 MoneyDJ 列為保險粉相關國外競爭廠商；中國大陸上市公司，非台股掛牌。
- 廣東中成化工 MoneyDJ 列為保險粉相關國外競爭廠商；非台股掛牌。
Sources（16）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.