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1773

勝一 Chemicals As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 勝一 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 39Quality 86Growth 72Momentum 72Chips 54

Is 勝一 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~87% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 5.2%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 52th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 95th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.0% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 28.4%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral +0.09
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 holds 1,529 lots
  • sellers have 2,293 lots left, ~131 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +9% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 新加坡商瑞銀 has accumulated 1,529 lots since the start (sold 21%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 1,827 lots, has sold 32%, 1,240 left, ~131 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.23pp, mid holders +2, retail -0.11pp — little change.
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
新加坡商瑞銀統一摩根大通永豐金-南投凱基-台北永豐金-新竹
Distributing
美商高盛元大證券台灣摩根士丹利港商野村永豐金證券第一金-桃園
Desks
own scale
凱基-三多大和國泰富邦證券港商麥格理
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +1,529
    sold 21%· still adding
  • 統一 +569
    sold 0%
  • 摩根大通 +551
    sold 14%· still adding
  • 永豐金-南投 +377
    sold 1%
  • 凱基-台北 +367
    sold 18%· still adding
  • 永豐金-新竹 +361
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 1,240 left
    sold 32%· ~131 sessions to clear
  • 元大證券 413 left
    sold 56%· ~30 sessions to clear
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 475 left
    sold 43%· ~66 sessions to clear
  • 港商野村 86 left
    sold 54%· paused recently
  • 永豐金證券 115 left
    sold 25%· paused recently
  • 第一金-桃園 64 left
    sold 55%· paused recently

Desks

  • 凱基-三多 -527
    unclassified
  • 大和國泰 -506
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 富邦證券 -491
    unclassified
  • 港商麥格理 -345
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 2,293 lots ~131 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +746 absorbed / -396 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 28.38%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

50 historical occurrences (since 2009-11-10)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 69.4%, Sample 49, Median +3.47%, Excess +3.32%, Beat mkt rate 61.2%；60-day: Win 79.2%, Sample 48, Median +8.38%, Excess +8.41%, Beat mkt rate 77.1%；120-day: Win 78.7%, Sample 47, Median +12.76%, Excess +11.71%, Beat mkt rate 68.1%

120 days after: historical avg +13.86%

20-day +3.49%
60-day +10.43%
120-day +13.86%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
69.4%
79.2%
78.7%
Sample
49
48
47
Median
+3.47%
+8.38%
+12.76%
Excess
+3.32%
+8.41%
+11.71%
Beat mkt rate
61.2%
77.1%
68.1%

Over 47 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 13.86%, beat the market by 11.71 pts; win rate 78.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 31+57.1% +58.7% 100% +33.3%
20-40 182+43.1% +45.5% 100% +23.6%
40-60 179+37.7% +33.4% 100% +21.9%
60-80 500+34.7% +35.4% 88.2% +16.7%
80-100 You are here2151+19% +14% 72.9% +3.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 24.07, at the 94.6th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+22.5%
Win rate 100% Excess +14.2%
95d
+20.8%
Win rate 100% Excess +12.6%
202d
Now
+11.1%
Win rate 72.4% Excess +4.1%
1929d
60-day momentum down
+16.5%
Win rate 98% Excess +4.3%
51d
+7.8%
Win rate 61.1% Excess +2.9%
108d
+10%
Win rate 70.6% Excess -2.4%
778d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1929 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 11.1%, win rate 72.4%, beat the market by 4.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

40 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.61%, win rate 74.4%, beating the market by +3.2 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

73 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.85%, win rate 79.2%, beating the market by +2.67 pts on average.

What does 勝一 do? Company profile

化學工業；特用化學品；電子級溶劑 上市（台灣證券交易所）

Overview

勝一化工成立於1979年，股票代號1773，2009年掛牌上市，總部位於高雄市永安區永工一路5號。公司為台灣自製溶劑品項最多的廠商之一，2024年自製溶劑品項達40項，包含工業級14項與電子級26項。董事長為孫靜源，總經理為孫啓發，資本額30億元，已發行普通股300,000,000股；2025年前三季法說資料揭露集團員工數647人，2024年年報揭露截至2025年4月15日員工合計631人。主要法人股東包含寧漢企業股份有限公司與裕國合板股份有限公司；2024年年報顯示寧漢企業持股約30.63%、裕國合板持股約12.42%，孫靜源個人持股約3.00%。公司關係企業包括鴻勝化學科技、和勝倉儲、友亦企業、張家港越洋、上海聯勝、上海豪勝、佳勝科技、馬來源勝等，涵蓋電子級溶劑生產、液體油槽倉儲、聚氧乙烯、催化劑、FCCL及福馬林膠水等業務。

Business

勝一主要生產與銷售溶劑產品，核心產品包括電子級溶劑、工業級溶劑、原料及其他化學品。電子級溶劑用於半導體製程、平面顯示器、封裝測試、發光二極體、光阻製造等領域，產品包含PGME、PGMEA、醋酸正丁酯、環戊酮、異丙醇、丙酮、NMP等，可作為晶邊清洗液、顯影、蝕刻後洗淨、剝離液配方溶劑等。工業級溶劑用於塗料、合成樹脂、印刷油墨、清洗有機溶劑、皮革等；醛類系列用於防腐劑、消毒劑、黏著劑、合成樹脂原料及其他有機化學品。2025年前三季法說資料顯示，電子級溶劑營收占比由2024年平均64.3%提升至2025年前三季平均71.7%，2025年第3季達72.7%；工業級溶劑2025年前三季平均約13.0%，原料約12.9%，其他約2.5%。2024年銷售地區以台灣為主，台灣占78.86%，外銷占21.14%，外銷市場包含韓國、越南、泰國及其他地區。商業模式為自製與銷售溶劑，並透過高純度化、客製化規格、儲運與關係企業支援，切入半導體及高科技客戶供應鏈；2024年年報揭露單一主要銷貨客戶以匿名甲公司呈現，2024年占銷貨淨額32.34%，顯示客戶集中度需留意。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望偏向電子級溶劑與半導體先進製程需求驅動。公司官方營業概況指出，2021年起年營業額已突破100億元，自2019年起投入大量資本支出，更新擴建6座生產線並建設洲際儲運中心，預期可供應到2028年的客戶需求。2025年前三季營收85.21億元、年增4.4%，稅後淨利15.03億元、年增12.1%，EPS 5.01元，毛利率34.4%；電子級溶劑銷量65.7千公噸、年增14.1%，其中半導體用產品年增17.2%，顯示產品組合持續高值化。2026年5月新聞引述公司股東會資訊指出，AI、高效能運算、半導體先進製程與高科技產業需求成長，將帶動高純度溶劑與特用化學品需求；子公司鴻勝化學兩套電子級異丙醇高純度產線預計2026年9月完工，丙二醇單甲醚產線擴建完成後年產能預計提升至17萬噸。中長期成長動能包括先進製程對高純度、低金屬含量與顆粒控制的要求提高，半導體、封裝、光阻與面板應用擴大，台灣供應鏈在地化，以及廢溶劑回收再製與循環經濟。主要風險包括原料價格與供應波動、匯率與外銷市場波動、環保與工安法規趨嚴造成成本上升、勞動成本上升、內銷市場競爭、主要客戶集中、擴產投產時程與稼動率不如預期、先進製程材料認證週期長，以及化工廠環安衛事件風險。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 國內醋酸供應商（未揭露） 2024年年報揭露醋酸為主要原料之一，主要供應商地區為國內，供應情形穩定；供應商名稱未揭露。
  • 國外丁醇供應商（未揭露） 2024年年報揭露丁醇為主要原料之一，主要供應商地區為國外，供應情形穩定；供應商名稱未揭露。
  • 國外乙二醇丁醚供應商（未揭露） 2024年年報揭露乙二醇丁醚為主要原料之一，主要供應商地區為國外，供應情形穩定；供應商名稱未揭露。
  • 國內丙二醇甲醚供應商（未揭露） 2024年年報揭露丙二醇甲醚為主要原料之一，主要供應商地區為國內，供應情形穩定；供應商名稱未揭露。
  • 國外甲醇供應商（未揭露） 2024年年報揭露甲醇為主要原料之一，主要供應商地區為國外，供應情形穩定；供應商名稱未揭露。
  • 鴻勝化學科技股份有限公司 勝一關係企業，經營電子級溶劑生產與銷售；2026年規劃兩套電子級異丙醇高純度產線，屬集團電子級溶劑產能與供應鏈一環，未上市。
  • 和勝倉儲股份有限公司 勝一關係企業，經營液體油槽倉儲業務，支援原料與化學品儲運，未上市。
  • 友亦企業股份有限公司 勝一關係企業，經營液體油槽倉儲業務，支援化學品儲運，未上市。
Downstream
  • 台灣積體電路製造股份有限公司 2330 台積公司2023年供應商管理論壇公開列名勝一化工為優良供應商卓越表現獎得獎者，項目為化學品量產支援和綠色製造；勝一公司網站亦揭露獲台積電2023年優良供應商獎。年報未揭露主要客戶真實名稱，因此具體銷售占比不可直接對應。
  • 大型半導體客戶甲公司（未揭露） 2024年年報揭露匿名甲公司為主要銷貨客戶，2024年占銷貨淨額32.34%，與發行人關係為無；實際公司名稱未揭露。
  • 半導體製造、封裝測試、光阻製造客戶（未揭露） 電子級溶劑下游應用，產品用於清洗、剝離、去光阻、蝕刻製程化學品、晶邊清洗液與顯影等；個別客戶多未公開。
  • 平面顯示器、LED與電子材料客戶（未揭露） 電子級溶劑下游應用，包含TFT、彩色濾光片、LED及其他高科技製程清洗與剝離用途；個別客戶未揭露。
  • 塗料、樹脂、油墨、印刷、皮革與一般化工客戶（未揭露） 工業級溶劑下游應用，需求與工業生產、塗料及加工製品景氣相關；個別客戶未揭露。

Competitors

  • 長春石油化學股份有限公司 勝一年報列為主要產品競爭廠商；同為台灣化學品與半導體化學品供應鏈重要廠商，未上市。
  • 李長榮化學工業股份有限公司 勝一年報列為主要產品競爭廠商；李長榮化工已非台股上市櫃普通股，stock_id填null。
  • 三福化工股份有限公司 4755 台股上櫃特用化學與電子化學相關公司，與勝一在半導體高純度化學品供應鏈具部分客戶與應用競爭或替代關係。
  • 國精化學股份有限公司 4722 台股上櫃特用化學材料公司，產品涵蓋樹脂、塗料與電子材料相關應用，與勝一在部分特用化學材料市場相鄰。
  • 台灣特品化學股份有限公司 4772 台股上市半導體特用化學品公司，與勝一同受惠先進製程材料在地化，但產品線不完全相同，屬電子化學材料供應資格與客戶預算層面的競爭。
  • 中華化學工業股份有限公司 1727 台股上市化學工業公司，產品涵蓋化學原料與工業化學品，與勝一在部分基礎及工業化學品市場相鄰。
Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.