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2230

泰茂 Home & Living As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 泰茂 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 44Quality 8Growth 87Momentum 2Chips 69

Is 泰茂 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 14th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -7.1%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 80th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 68th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 3.0% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 62.6%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.32
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 國票-南科 holds 919 lots
  • sellers have 493 lots left, ~175 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -71% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 國票-南科 has accumulated 919 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
  • Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 448 lots, has sold 41%, 263 left, ~175 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -6.77pp, mid holders +0, retail +5.52pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -56 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
國票-南科美林美商高盛第一金-嘉義台灣摩根士丹利國泰-敦南
Distributing
凱基-台北新光元大-台北港商野村台新證券國票-天祥
Desks
own scale
統一元富凱基-台南華南永昌-三重
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 國票-南科 +919
    sold 0%
  • 美林 +720
    sold 12%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +498
    sold 20%· still adding
  • 第一金-嘉義 +239
    sold 0%
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +177
    sold 22%· still adding
  • 國泰-敦南 +124
    sold 21%· still adding

Distributing

  • 凱基-台北 263 left
    sold 41%· ~175 sessions to clear
  • 新光 72 left
    sold 70%· ~36 sessions to clear
  • 元大-台北 66 left
    sold 71%· ~31 sessions to clear
  • 港商野村 81 left
    sold 63%· paused recently
  • 台新證券 76 left
    sold 39%· paused recently
  • 國票-天祥 23 left
    sold 81%· paused recently

Desks

  • 統一 -3,783
    unclassified
  • 元富 -1,405
    unclassified
  • 凱基-台南 -370
    unclassified
  • 華南永昌-三重 -310
    unclassified
Still selling 493 lots ~175 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +573 absorbed / -105 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -56 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 62.61%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

60 historical occurrences (since 2013-04-18)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 51%, Sample 49, Median +0.33%, Excess -0.53%, Beat mkt rate 36.7%；60-day: Win 46.8%, Sample 47, Median -0.94%, Excess -3.31%, Beat mkt rate 31.9%；120-day: Win 50%, Sample 46, Median -0.11%, Excess -4.91%, Beat mkt rate 26.1%

120 days after: historical avg +4.63%

20-day +1.44%
60-day +1.37%
120-day +4.63%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
51%
46.8%
50%
Sample
49
47
46
Median
+0.33%
-0.94%
-0.11%
Excess
-0.53%
-3.31%
-4.91%
Beat mkt rate
36.7%
31.9%
26.1%

Over 46 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 4.63%, lagged the market by 4.91 pts; win rate 50%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 221+213.9% +231.6% 79.6% +183.8%
20-40 218+57.6% +83.2% 59.2% +24.8%
40-60 90-5.4% -24.4% 31.1% -20.8%
60-80 You are here156+43.7% -0.5% 48.7% +16.6%
80-100 480+176.6% +14.1% 71.2% +137.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 49.76, at the 67.7th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+74%
Win rate 68.5% Excess +60.1%
279d
+1.1%
Win rate 34.6% Excess -5.3%
107d
+2.9%
Win rate 55.7% Excess -12%
352d
60-day momentum down
+27.1%
Win rate 66.5% Excess +14.5%
194d
-18%
Win rate 17.2% Excess -28.6%
58d
Now
+82.4%
Win rate 72.8% Excess +54.1%
294d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 294 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 82.4%, win rate 72.8%, beat the market by 54.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

16 times historically; 60-day forward avg +14.39%, win rate 56.2%, beating the market by +9.91 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

19 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.49%, win rate 35.3%, beating the market by -5.57 pts on average.

What does 泰茂 do? Company profile

電機機械；汽車零組件；酒水經銷；新能源儲能 上櫃（櫃買中心）

Overview

泰茂實業股份有限公司，統一編號86070187，成立於1991年2月6日；公司官網說明其沿溯於1973年中國交通工業股份有限公司，長期從事活塞環與引擎零件。總部位於台南市官田區二鎮里實踐街10號。董事長為呂萬賢，總經理為呂萬傑，董事長並兼任執行長。公司於2007年8月31日公開發行、2007年10月29日登錄興櫃、2013年4月18日上櫃。依114年度年報，截至115年4月13日普通股流通在外68,029,605股，實收股本680,296,050元；114年底員工403人。主要持股資訊包含董事長呂萬賢持股約5.97%、董事呂萬豪約4.58%、法人董事華恩投資約2.67%，華恩投資主要股東為呂萬傑99.93%。114年度營業收入淨額2,025,196仟元，稅後淨損73,080仟元，每股虧損1.05元。

Business

公司早期及本業為活塞環、引擎零件及汽車零配件買賣，產品包含壓縮環、油環、黑鑽膜活塞環、引擎修理包、缸套、活塞、時規修理包、汽門、化油器修理包、煞車系統及底盤零件等，主要應用於汽車、農業機械、工業機械、重型吊車、雪車等燃油引擎及售後維修市場。近年公司大幅多角化，透過中國子公司北海杜宇松豪電子商務有限公司切入白酒經銷與分銷，產品包含金扶酒及代理/分銷五糧液、劍南春、潞酒等名酒，通路涵蓋區域經銷商、傳統經銷商、團購、直銷、煙酒店、電商直播與大型通路合作。依114年度年報，營收結構為酒品1,642,760仟元、占81.12%；活塞環及零件339,629仟元、占16.77%；餐飲、團膳及其他42,807仟元、占2.11%。銷售地區以中國為主，114年度中國銷售1,855,026仟元、占91.60%，台灣166,085仟元、占8.20%。公司亦設新能源事業，開發1kWh、5kW、10kW、14kWh、50kW儲能系統、車用/重機用鋰系啟動電池、jump starter、Green Power產品、13.7kWh家用儲能ODM、4U電池模組，並透過收購約翰三股份有限公司切入台電E-dReg儲能案場。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望可分三條主軸。第一，傳統活塞環及汽車零件業務仍以全球AM售後維修市場、海外經銷商及策略聯盟通路為基礎；公司具備快速開模、約五千多款車輛適用活塞環、DLC類鑽膜與氮化等表面處理能力，但中長期面臨純電車滲透、燃油車引擎零件需求結構性下滑、低成本中國零組件廠削價競爭及鋼材/鑄鐵原料價格波動。第二，酒水事業已成最大營收來源，公司策略為擴大代理商與經銷商規模、提升煙酒店與中大型通路品質、拓展京東/酒世界等通路、發展團購與直播電商、與知名白酒品牌合作開發流量款商品並擴張海外市場；主要成長動能來自中國白酒品牌化與通路整合，但風險包括中國消費景氣、白酒庫存週期、頭部品牌集中、中小酒企競爭壓力、政策與食品安全監管、主要供應商/客戶集中。第三，新能源儲能為轉型重點，公司已開發家用、商用及MW級E-dReg案場相關產品，114年收購約翰三後由kW級產品跨足MW級應用，宜蘭利澤台電E-dReg案場容量約1.25MW/4.128MWh，合約營運週期十年，公司並稱預估總收入約1.2億元；未來研發聚焦高效能儲能系統、新能源應用、200kW以上大型儲能與專利保護。此主軸風險在於儲能認證、量產良率、案場投資回收、台電輔助服務價格與制度變動、電芯成本、國內儲能競爭者增加。整體而言，2025至2028年成長關鍵在酒水通路是否能維持高周轉、儲能能否從開發/案場落地轉為穩定收入，以及傳統活塞環現金流能否守住利基市場。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 浙江普禮智能科技有限公司 泰茂轉投資/子公司，年報列為鑄鐵粗材供應來源之一，非台股掛牌公司。
  • 森順 年報列為球墨鑄鐵主要供應廠商，供應狀況良好；未確認為台股掛牌公司。
  • 台灣林吉 年報列為鋼材/鋼材線材供應廠商之一，供應狀況良好；未確認為台股掛牌公司。
  • 玖翊 年報列為鋼材/鋼材線材供應廠商之一，供應狀況良好；未確認為台股掛牌公司。
  • 徐州匯豐 年報列為生鐵供應廠商，供應狀況良好；中國供應商，非台股掛牌公司。
  • 品牌酒廠及合法授權品牌運營酒商 北海杜宇松豪酒水事業直接向品牌酒廠或合法授權酒商採購；年報因契約或商業因素多以代號揭露主要供應商。
  • 國產電芯、BMS、逆變器與控制模組供應鏈 新能源產品所需上游材料與模組，年報提到以國產電芯、保護板、逆變器、控制模組組成家用儲能與4U電池模組；未揭露具名台股供應商。
Downstream
  • 汽車維修廠、零件貿易商與經銷商 活塞環及汽車零組件主要銷售對象，屬AM售後維修與改裝市場；多為海內外通路商，年報未逐一具名。
  • DieHard 年報揭露泰茂針對客戶DieHard開發13.7kWh家用儲能裝置ODM；DieHard為美國汽車電池/電源品牌，非台股掛牌公司。
  • 台塑新智能 年報揭露泰茂針對台塑新智能開發4U電池模組；台塑新智能本身未上市櫃，母集團有台股上市公司但此處不以母公司代填代號。
  • 台灣電力公司 透過約翰三股份有限公司建置宜蘭利澤台電E-dReg儲能案場，台電為國營事業，非台股掛牌公司。
  • 中國煙草通路 酒水事業規劃與中國煙草類型大型通路商合作，作為白酒銷售出口；非台股掛牌公司。
  • 京東、酒世界等中國酒水/電商通路 年報提及酒水事業與京東、酒世界等大中型通路商合作，非台股掛牌公司。

Competitors

  • MAHLE 年報列於活塞環產業關聯圖之同業之一；德國汽車零組件集團，非台股掛牌公司。
  • NPR（Nippon Piston Ring） 年報列於活塞環產業關聯圖之同業之一；日本活塞環廠，非台股掛牌公司。
  • RIKEN 年報列於活塞環產業關聯圖之同業之一；日本活塞環/汽車零件廠，非台股掛牌公司。
  • TPR 年報產業關聯圖以TP列示，推定為日本TPR等活塞環同業；非台股掛牌公司。
  • 東陽 1319 台股上市汽車零組件AM/OEM大廠，產品線與泰茂活塞環不完全相同，但在汽車零組件售後市場與外銷通路屬廣義同業。
  • 堤維西 1522 台股上市汽車零組件廠，以車燈等汽車零件為主，屬廣義汽車零組件外銷同業。
  • 帝寶 6605 台股上市汽車車燈與零組件廠，屬廣義AM汽車零組件同業，與泰茂核心產品不同。
  • 貴州茅台 中國白酒龍頭，A股上市公司，非台股掛牌；泰茂酒水事業面對中國白酒品牌與通路競爭。
  • 五糧液 中國白酒頭部品牌，A股上市公司，非台股掛牌；同時也是泰茂酒水事業提及代理/分銷合作的品牌之一，兼具競合關係。
  • 劍南春 中國知名白酒品牌，非台股掛牌；泰茂年報提及代理/分銷其相關產品，亦屬白酒市場競爭品牌。
Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.