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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 2430 燦坤. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=2430
2430
quality needs a look, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 燦坤 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 28th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.2%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 69th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 94th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -3.3% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -19% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 合庫-台中 has accumulated 2,229 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 116 lots, has sold 32%, 79 left, ~21 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.51pp, mid holders -2, retail -0.77pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -128 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 合庫-台中 +2,229
- 永豐金-竹科 +775
- 富邦-員林 +195
- 元大-大里 +139
- 元大-大里德芳 +136
- 元大-屏東 +114
Distributing
- 台灣摩根士丹利 79 left
- 富邦-南員林 48 left
- 國泰-桃園 40 left
- 美商高盛 29 left
- 臺銀-高雄 24 left
- 美林 11 left
Desks
- 元大-北府 -2,079
- 新加坡商瑞銀 -658
- 光和-嘉義 -419
- 群益金鼎-大甲 -343
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 419 | -4.9% | -7.9% | 27% | -25.6% |
| 20-40 | 215 | -0.4% | -8% | 19.5% | -15.1% |
| 40-60 | 562 | +23.9% | -10.3% | 35.8% | +5.4% |
| 60-80 | 783 | -0.6% | -10% | 23.4% | -13.3% |
| 80-100 You are here | 1052 | -1.1% | -14.3% | 39.6% | -18% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 38.33, at the 93.5th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 1149 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 6.1%, win rate 23.8%, lagged the market by 15%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
15 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.92%, win rate 66.7%, beating the market by +2.65 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
12 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.39%, win rate 63.6%, beating the market by +11.76 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
54 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.57%, win rate 41.5%, beating the market by -4.06 pts on average.
What does 燦坤 do? Company profile
Overview
燦坤實業股份有限公司為台灣上市普通股，股票代號2430，產業分類為電子通路業。公司成立於1978/11/02，上市日期為2000/09/11，總部位於台北市內湖區堤頂大道一段331號3樓。實收資本額約新台幣11.68億元，已發行普通股約116,800,000股。董事長為林技典；總經理資訊存在來源差異，部分基本資料仍列NA或待補，富邦/TEJ整理之115/05董監經理人持股頁列李經緯為總經理。發言人為王友良。2024年永續報告書揭露全體員工人數2,014人。主要股東與董監持股方面，115/05資料顯示燦坤投資股份有限公司持股約35,173張、約30.11%，全方位國際投資股份有限公司約1,622張、約1.39%，育朋投資有限公司約805張、約0.69%。公司重要子公司/投資架構包括大力投資、永益投資、RROWORLD、燦坤印尼等。
Business
燦坤是台灣3C與家電零售通路商，核心業務為零售3C百貨商品，涵蓋家用電器、資訊產品、通訊/數位產品與相關服務；公開基本資料亦列有電熨斗、咖啡壺、煎烤器及馬達類產品研發設計，以及零組件、模具銷售與技術報酬金等。依114年度年報摘錄，2025年營收分布以資訊/家電商品為主，金額約17,372,279千元、占98.27%，其他商品服務約305,655千元、占1.73%。公司商業模式以全台實體門市、線上商城與OMO整合服務銷售品牌家電、資訊與數位商品，並搭配會員制度、K幣/高端會員、配送安裝、延長保固、家電清潔、維修與售後服務來提高客單與黏著度。截至2025年底新聞與法說摘要顯示全台約288家門市，北部為重點銷售區域。主要客戶為台灣一般消費者、家庭、個人3C/家電使用者與部分企業/機關採購；終端應用包括居家生活、空調、廚房家電、資訊周邊、手機通訊、智慧家居、AI數位商品、節能家電、銀髮與寵物生活商品。2025年合併營收176.77億元，年減6.89%；歸屬母公司淨利0.81億元，EPS 0.70元。2026Q1合併營收42.97億元，年減1.1%，EPS 0.07元。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025年公司面臨消費轉趨保守、旅遊支出排擠可支配所得、實體與線上零售競爭加劇、空調與小家電銷售不如預期等壓力，全年營收與獲利均較2024年衰退。2026年經營重點依年報/法說與新聞整理，包括持續拓展新門市並調整低效門市、整改既有店點、優化動線與新品布局、深化線上/線下全通路服務、強化物流配送安裝與售後技術服務、提升會員價值與Surpass高端會員機制、擴大服務性商品如保潔、延長保固、移動裝置保險，並導入寵物卡等新會員機制。成長動能主要來自AI與智能家電、節能家電、數位AI商品、寵物與銀髮商品、智慧家居體驗、跨業結盟生態圈，以及新市鎮展店帶來的人口紅利。2027至2028年可觀察方向為：高齡化與寵物經濟滲透率提升、節能補助與汰舊換新需求、智慧家居/AI PC與AI周邊換機週期、會員經濟與售後服務占比提升是否改善毛利率。主要風險為台灣內需復甦不均、通膨與實質薪資壓力、電商平台與同業價格競爭、門市租金與人事成本、空調/家電受天候與補助政策波動、低毛利資訊產品占比提高、庫存與促銷壓力、地緣政治與關稅變動影響品牌供貨成本。2027至2028具體財務目標未見公司公開量化承諾，以上展望屬依公司公開策略與產業趨勢推估。
Supply Chain
- 禾聯碩 5283 台股上市家電品牌商，為燦坤銷售家電品類的可能供應品牌/同業；實際供貨占比未公開。
- 聲寶 1604 台股上市家電品牌商，為台灣家電零售通路常見供應品牌；實際供貨占比未公開。
- 大同 2371 台股上市家電與電機品牌商，家電商品可透過零售通路銷售；實際供貨占比未公開。
- 東元 1504 台股上市家電/電機品牌商，空調與家電產品屬燦坤通路可能銷售品類；實際供貨占比未公開。
- 瑞軒科技 2489 台股上市顯示器/電視相關廠商，屬資訊家電通路上游品牌/供應鏈之一；實際供貨占比未公開。
- Dyson 未在台股上市之國際家電品牌；公開新聞提及燦坤與Dyson等品牌合作強化產品組合。
- LG Electronics 韓國上市國際家電品牌，非台股公司；公開新聞提及燦坤與LG等品牌合作強化產品組合。
- Apple 美國上市消費電子品牌，非台股公司；屬3C通路常見高單價數位商品來源，實際供貨占比未公開。
- 一般消費者與家庭客戶 未上市客群；為燦坤家電、資訊、通訊、智慧家居、節能與銀髮/寵物商品之主要終端消費者。
- 企業、機關與商用採購客戶 未特定揭露客戶名單；可能採購資訊設備、家電、安裝與售後服務。
- 線上商城與外送/跨業合作平台客群 公司公開策略提及擴增外送雙平台服務網點與跨業結盟，實際平台與貢獻占比未充分揭露。
Competitors
- 全國電子 6281 台股上櫃家電與3C零售通路商，與燦坤在家電、資訊與實體門市通路直接競爭。
- 神腦國際 2450 台股上市通訊與3C通路商，與燦坤在手機、通訊、3C商品及門市服務競爭。
- 順發電腦 6154 台股上櫃資訊通路商，與燦坤在電腦、資訊周邊與3C零售競爭。
- 三井資訊 8287 台股上櫃資訊通路商，與燦坤在資訊產品、Apple/PC與周邊通路競爭。
- 富邦媒 8454 台股上市momo電商平台，與燦坤在線上家電、3C、日用品銷售競爭。
- 網路家庭 8044 台股上櫃PChome電商平台，與燦坤在線上3C與家電銷售競爭。
- 蝦皮購物 非台股上市電商平台，與燦坤在線上3C/家電價格與流量競爭。
- Costco Taiwan 非台股上市會員制賣場，於家電、電視、3C與生活用品銷售上形成替代性競爭。
Sources（14）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.