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2498

宏達電 Communications & Internet As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation, no active signal today.

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 宏達電 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 宏達電 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 4th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -0.9%.
Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 50th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 81th percentile.
Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 3.4% of volume (net buy).

Chip flow

Bullish +0.19

BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
新加坡商瑞銀 holds 3,749 lots
sellers have 3,023 lots left, ~89 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +2% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 新加坡商瑞銀 has accumulated 3,749 lots since the start (sold 21%), now trimming.
Main distributor 摩根大通 peaked at 4,371 lots, has sold 79%, 899 left, ~5 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.54pp, mid holders +2, retail -0.58pp — concentration shifting upward.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -5,369 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

新加坡商瑞銀永豐金-板新花旗環球元大-北屯華南永昌-台南土銀-嘉義

Distributing

摩根大通元大證券富邦證券台灣摩根士丹利統一-彰化港商野村

Desks

own scale

美林凱基-台北富邦-台北光和-嘉義

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

新加坡商瑞銀 +3,749

sold 21%
永豐金-板新 +1,063

sold 0%· still adding
花旗環球 +990

sold 21%· still adding
元大-北屯 +974

sold 0%
華南永昌-台南 +769

sold 7%
土銀-嘉義 +764

sold 0%

Distributing

摩根大通 899 left

sold 79%· ~5 sessions to clear
元大證券 1,440 left

sold 57%· paused recently
富邦證券 416 left

sold 81%· ~89 sessions to clear
台灣摩根士丹利 235 left

sold 87%· ~3 sessions to clear
統一-彰化 492 left

sold 53%· paused recently
港商野村 517 left

sold 48%· paused recently

Desks

美林 -2,622

hedge desk · will cover
凱基-台北 -2,411

day-trade · selling pressure
富邦-台北 -2,151

unclassified
光和-嘉義 -1,358

unclassified

Still selling 3,023 lots ~89 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +4,275 absorbed / -4,069 sold buyers slightly ahead

Hedge-desk net short -2,958 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 +18.2%

20-40 -41.8%

40-60 -48.5%

60-80 -48.4%

80-100 -66.2% Now

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	221	+18.2%	+18.3%	67.4%	-224.1%
20-40	72	-41.8%	-41.7%	0%	-98.3%
40-60	91	-48.5%	-49.2%	0%	-77.9%
60-80	136	-48.4%	-58.1%	14.7%	-96%
80-100 You are here	141	-66.2%	-70.5%	5%	-99.4%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 22.95, at the 81.2th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

+25.3%

Win rate 80.6% Excess -173.5%

67d

-41.2%

Win rate 0% Excess -45.9%

41d

Now

-32.4%

Win rate 15.8% Excess -54.6%

203d

60-day momentum down

-7.1%

Win rate 32.4% Excess -54.5%

213d

-36%

Win rate 8.7% Excess -59.9%

104d

-15.2%

Win rate 45.1% Excess -40.3%

153d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 203 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 32.4%, win rate 15.8%, lagged the market by 54.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

10 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.85%, win rate 60%, beating the market by +10.29 pts on average.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

71 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.11%, win rate 48%, beating the market by +1.1 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

50 times historically; 60-day forward avg -3.6%, win rate 30%, beating the market by -6.91 pts on average.

What does 宏達電 do? Company profile

通訊網路／消費性電子／XR與AI智慧穿戴台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2498 對應證券為宏達國際電子股份有限公司，英文名 HTC Corporation，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司成立於 1997/05/15，掛牌日期為 2002/03/26，總部登記地址為桃園市桃園區興華路21巷1號，台北／新店辦公據點位於新北市新店區中興路三段88號。董事長與總經理皆為王雪紅，發言人為盧佳德。實收資本額公開資料有小幅差異：Yahoo 股市於 2026/02/11 顯示股本 8,359,620,860 元、已發行普通股 835,962,086 股；玩股網顯示實收資本額 8,360,650,860 元、已發行普通股 836,065,086 股，差異可能來自資料更新時點。104 人力銀行揭露員工人數約 2,000 人。2025/04/22 公司投資人關係網站揭露主要股東包括威智投資 43,819,290 股、5.25%；王雪紅 32,272,427 股、3.86%；威連科技 31,087,231 股、3.72%；弘茂投資 23,197,081 股、2.78%；陳文琦 22,391,389 股、2.68%；坤昌投資 9,322,824 股、1.12%；以及外資保管專戶與指數基金持股。公司過去以智慧型手機聞名，目前定位已轉向 VIVE XR 硬體、VIVERSE 平台、AI 智慧眼鏡、企業沉浸式解決方案、5G 專網與數位內容服務。

Business

宏達電目前主要業務可分為四大塊：一、VIVE XR／VR 硬體，包括 VIVE Focus Vision、VIVE XR Elite、VIVE Pro 2、企業與教育訓練用頭戴式裝置及多人同步管理方案；二、AI 智慧穿戴，包括 2025 年推出的 VIVE Eagle AI 眼鏡，主打繁體中文優化、語音 AI 助理、拍照、音樂播放、70 多種語言圖像翻譯、AI 記憶與提醒、VIVE AI Plus 加值服務，並採用 ZEISS 鏡片、搭配 Google Gemini 與 OpenAI GPT 等大型語言模型；三、VIVERSE 平台與軟體服務，涵蓋 VIVERSE Worlds、VIVERSE Studio、WebXR、Unity WebGL、Three.js、AI 3D 內容創作、Polygon Streaming、創作者經濟與企業虛擬場景；四、垂直應用與解決方案，包括 VIVE Arts、VIVE Originals、文化展演／大場域實景娛樂、教育訓練、醫療 DeepQ、G REIGNS 5G 專網、工業 5.0 智慧工廠、倉儲、無人機與虛擬製作 VIVE Mars。營收結構方面，公司未在可取得公開網頁中提供完整官方分部占比；MoneyDJ 2025 年報導引述法人估計，硬體含手機與 VR/XR 頭戴顯示器約占營收 80%，軟體與服務約占 20%，其中手機已占硬體營收 10% 以下，該數字屬法人估計而非公司正式分部揭露。2025 年全年自結合併營收約新台幣 29.01 億元，年減約 5%；2025 年全年營業毛利率約 35.9%，營業淨損約 34.5 億元，但因處分 Google XR 交易與桃園廠房土地等業外利益，歸屬母公司業主淨利約 60.3 億元、EPS 7.21 元，結束多年虧損。商業模式包含硬體銷售、電信與眼鏡通路銷售、電商銷售、企業 B2B 訂閱與解決方案、平台服務、內容／IP 合作、軟體授權與技術合作。主要客戶與終端應用包括消費者 AI 眼鏡與 XR 玩家、企業訓練、教育、文化展演、醫療、工業智慧工廠、公共安全、創作者與 WebXR 開發者。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望的核心是宏達電能否從過去手機硬體公司，轉型為 AI 智慧穿戴與 XR 平台公司。成長動能包括：一、VIVE Eagle AI 眼鏡從台灣上市、台灣大哥大電信獨家銷售、全台 300 家以上門市體驗、PChome 與 momo 電商上架，再擴展香港等海外市場；若 AI 眼鏡由早期採用者走向一般消費者，將提供較高頻率、較日常的使用場景。二、VIVERSE 已揭露月活躍使用者突破百萬、累積超過 23,000 個 Worlds 內容、支援超過 140 項創作者計畫，若 WebXR、AI 3D 內容創作、免程式碼工具與企業虛擬場景落地，軟體與服務占比有機會提升。三、公司與 Google 於 2025 年簽署 2.5 億美元 XR 協議，部分 XR 研發團隊加入 Google，HTC 保留非專屬 XR IP 使用與發展權；此交易短期改善財務體質，長期可望連結 Android XR 生態，但也代表部分研發人力移出，後續產品執行力需觀察。四、企業 XR、公共安全訓練、文化展演、醫療、工業 5.0、5G 專網與無人機應用，較消費級 VR 更重視解決方案與服務收入，可能支撐毛利率。五、研調與產業報導指出智慧眼鏡與 XR 裝置在 2025 至 2029 年具高成長預期，Google Android XR、Meta、Apple、Snap、中國品牌等加入可擴大市場教育。主要風險包括：一、2025 年獲利高度依賴業外處分利益，本業仍大幅虧損，2026Q1 已回到每股虧損約 0.29 元，表示營運規模尚未達損益兩平；二、2025 年全年營收跌破 30 億元，基期小且出貨能見度有限；三、AI 眼鏡競爭者包含 Meta Ray-Ban、Apple、Google／Samsung Android XR、Snap、小米、XREAL、Rokid 等，宏達電需在語音 AI、繁中在地化、隱私、電信通路與應用服務上形成差異；四、XR／VR 消費需求過去波動大，硬體換機周期與內容生態仍不成熟；五、Google 與 OpenAI 等模型、Android／iOS 手機平台、光學與半導體零組件供應皆非宏達電完全掌控；六、若 VIVERSE、企業 XR 專案與 AI 眼鏡銷售無法放大，本業虧損可能延續。整體判斷：2025 年財務面因業外交易轉盈，2026 至 2028 年的真正關鍵在於 AI 眼鏡與 VIVERSE／企業 XR 軟體服務能否把營收規模拉回成長軌道並降低本業虧損，展望具題材但基本面能見度仍屬中低。

Supply Chain

Upstream

ZEISS 蔡司 VIVE Eagle 採用 ZEISS 鏡片，蔡司為德國光學品牌，非台股掛牌公司。
Google VIVE Eagle 支援 Google Gemini；Google 亦於 2025 年以 2.5 億美元取得 HTC 部分 XR 研發團隊與 XR 智慧財產權非專屬授權，屬美國上市 Alphabet 集團，非台股掛牌。
OpenAI VIVE Eagle 的 VIVE AI 支援 OpenAI GPT 系列模型，OpenAI 為未上市公司。
Qualcomm HTC VIVE 與 Android／XR 裝置產業常用高通行動與 XR 平台；本研究未查得 VIVE Eagle 單一晶片供應的公司正式揭露，因此列為產業相關上游，非台股掛牌。
聯發科 2454 媒體報導外資曾點名台廠 AI 眼鏡供應鏈之一，但未能確認為宏達電 VIVE Eagle 直接供應商；列為潛在／產業鏈相關半導體公司。
欣興 3037 媒體報導外資曾點名台廠 AI 眼鏡供應鏈之一，但未能確認為宏達電直接供應商；列為潛在／產業鏈相關 PCB／載板公司。
臻鼎-KY 4958 媒體報導外資曾點名台廠 AI 眼鏡供應鏈之一，但未能確認為宏達電直接供應商；列為潛在／產業鏈相關 PCB 公司。

Downstream

台灣大哥大 3045 VIVE Eagle 在台由台灣大哥大作為電信獨家合作／銷售通路，搭配 5G 指定資費方案與門市體驗。
網路家庭 8044 VIVE Eagle 官網揭露同步進駐 PChome 購物；網路家庭為 PChome 相關台股上櫃公司。
富邦媒 8454 VIVE Eagle 官網揭露同步進駐 momo 購物網；富邦媒為 momo 相關台股上市公司。
2020EYEhaus VIVE Eagle 合作眼鏡通路，提供體驗、訂購與配鏡服務，未查得台股掛牌。
Axon HTC 與 Axon 合作，為北美執法與公共安全單位提供沉浸式 VR 訓練解決方案；Axon 為美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
企業、教育、文化展演、醫療與工業客戶 VIVE、VIVERSE、G REIGNS、DeepQ、VIVE Mars 等解決方案面向企業訓練、教育、文化旅遊、醫療、智慧工廠、倉儲與虛擬製作，客戶多為專案型或未揭露。

Competitors

Meta Platforms Ray-Ban Meta 智慧眼鏡與 Quest VR／MR 裝置為全球 AI 眼鏡與 XR 主要競爭者；美國上市，非台股。
Apple Apple Vision Pro 與未來空間運算／穿戴裝置生態為高階 XR 競爭者；美國上市，非台股。
Sony PlayStation VR2 與影像／顯示技術為 VR 市場競爭者；日本上市，非台股。
Samsung Electronics Samsung 與 Google Android XR 生態可能推出頭戴裝置或眼鏡產品；韓國上市，非台股。
ByteDance／PICO PICO 為中國 VR 頭戴裝置品牌，ByteDance 未在台股掛牌。
XREAL AR 眼鏡品牌，聚焦消費級輕量 AR 顯示眼鏡；未查得台股掛牌。
Rokid 中國 AR／AI 眼鏡品牌，與 HTC AI 眼鏡在部分應用場景競爭；未查得台股掛牌。
華碩 2357 在智慧型手機與消費電子品牌市場與 HTC 殘餘手機業務有部分競爭，但非 HTC 目前 XR／AI 眼鏡主軸的直接主要競爭者。
智崴 5263 台灣上櫃公司，聚焦體感模擬與沉浸式娛樂設備，與 HTC 在大型沉浸式娛樂／XR 應用場景有部分重疊。

Sources（25）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.