Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
Active · now 40.91%Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
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2945
三商家購 Trading & Retail As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close
quality needs a look, fair valuation.
1 active signal
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 三商家購 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Is 三商家購 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 31th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.7%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 42th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 23th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 8.6% of volume (net buy).
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Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 40.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.
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Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.
Chip flow
Bullish +0.32
BearishNeutralBullish
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +9% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 台新-成功 has accumulated 102 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 20 lots, has sold 45%, 11 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.00pp, mid holders +2, retail +0.01pp — little change.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -31 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台新-成功康和-嘉義台灣摩根士丹利元大證券花旗環球玉山證券
Distributing
凱基-台北元大-成功統一-內湖元大-大天母玉山-大里新光
Desks
own scale
玉山-嘉義永豐金-苓雅富邦-南港永豐金-屏東
Branch details Unit: lots
Accumulating
- 台新-成功 +102
- 康和-嘉義 +60
- 台灣摩根士丹利 +44
- 元大證券 +38
- 花旗環球 +33
- 玉山證券 +32
Distributing
- 凱基-台北 11 left
- 元大-成功 2 left
- 統一-內湖 2 left
- 元大-大天母 9 left
- 玉山-大里 4 left
- 新光 7 left
Desks
- 玉山-嘉義 -86
- 永豐金-苓雅 -66
- 富邦-南港 -65
- 永豐金-屏東 -59
Still selling 32 lots ~90 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +182 absorbed / -19 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Signals active now
These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
0-20 +8.3%
20-40 Insufficient data Now
40-60 Insufficient data
60-80 Insufficient data
80-100 Insufficient data
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 105 | +8.3% | +8.7% | 95.2% | -64.6% |
| 20-40 You are here | 6 | Insufficient data | |||
| 40-60 | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
| 60-80 | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
| 80-100 | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 19.18, at the 23.4th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
+4.6%
71d
Insufficient data
(0d)
(0d)
Insufficient data
(0d)
(0d)
60-day momentum down
+3.7%
153d
Insufficient data
(0d)
(0d)
Insufficient data
(0d)
(0d)
Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 71 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 4.6%, win rate 70.4%, lagged the market by 33.8%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Does this signal hold up across the market
Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.
Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
9 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.13%, win rate 28.6%, beating the market by -12.24 pts on average.
What does 三商家購 do? Company profile
貿易百貨；社區型超市、便利零售與生活消費通路 上市（臺灣證券交易所）
Overview
2945 對應證券為三商家購股份有限公司普通股，簡稱三商家購，英文簡稱 Simple Mart。公司成立於 2013/02/07，上市日期為 2021/11/30，總部位於台北市中山區民權東路三段4號地下一層，統一編號 54164937。公司實收資本額為新台幣675,000,000元，普通股股數67,500,000股。董事長為陳翔玢，總經理為邱光隆，發言人為邱光隆。公司官方資料列示主要業務為民生消費品之零售、超級市場之經營及其他。主要股東方面，公開持股資料顯示三商投資控股股份有限公司約持有41,018,951股、約60.8%，美好家庭購物股份有限公司持有10,400,000股、約15.4%；董事會成員亦包含三商投資控股與美好家庭購物之法人代表。員工規模方面，2024年永續報告揭露為數千人等級，但公開網頁文字擷取無法穩定判讀精確人數，因此不填具精確數字。公司核心品牌為美廉社，並有心樸市集、Go美廉、美廉便利架、Tomod's 三友藥妝、寵物好事等通路或轉投資事業；2026年並取得富達零售股份有限公司（原來來超商／OK mart）100%股份，相關營收自2026/03/27起併入合併營收。
Business
三商家購為台灣社區型生活零售通路，核心商業模式是以小型、鄰里型門市提供食品、飲品、菸酒、日用品、清潔用品、藥妝保健、寵物用品等民生高頻商品，透過密集社區據點、低鮮食報廢負擔、商品組合優化、加盟拓展、自有品牌與自進口商品提升毛利。2024年營收結構公開資料顯示約為商品銷售95%、服務類收入（代收手續費、陳列與廣告收入等）5%；美廉社為主要核心品牌。2025年合併營收約148.04億元、年增3.54%，營業毛利40.44億元、毛利率27.32%，稅後淨利約1.44億元，EPS 2.14元。2025年成長來源包括美廉社單店來客數提升，以及非美廉社通路如 Tomod's、寵物好事等貢獻。公司旗下通路截至2025年9月底公開報導列示美廉社約800家、心樸市集4家、Tomod's 15家、寵物好事7家，加盟店272家、加盟占比約34%；截至2025年底加盟店數約300家、占比約37%。主要客群為社區家庭、日常採買消費者、辦公室微型零售用戶與線上／外送平台消費者；終端應用為民生日用品、食品飲料、居家補給、寵物與藥妝保健等日常消費。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028年展望重點在三條主軸：一是加盟擴張，公司公開表示將提高加盟比重，2026年目標向五成靠攏，以降低直營人力壓力、提高單店經營投入與展店彈性；二是商品結構優化，包含自有品牌、Simple Life／心樸市集、自進口商品、酒窖專區、咖啡、藥妝與寵物品類，2025年自有品牌與自進口商品銷售占比報導約21.33%，酒窖專區門市已達324家，未來希望拉高占比；三是數位升級，公司自2024年起導入電子價卡，2025年7月完成全台約800家美廉社門市導入，可縮短調價作業、支援區域化定價、限時促銷、即期品差異定價、降低標價錯誤與報廢，並可能發展零售媒體網路與供應商合作收入。2026年起，併入OK mart／富達零售後，合併營收已有明顯年增，潛在綜效包括物流、供應鏈、會員、加盟、鮮食與最後一哩服務整合；但整合能否改善OK超商獲利、品牌定位是否清晰、物流與門市資訊系統整合成本，仍是主要觀察點。2027至2028年若加盟比率提升、商品毛利率維持、OK整合成功，公司營收規模可能高於原有美廉社單一通路成長軌道；但零售業低淨利率、高固定成本、缺工、租金與電費上升、同業價格競爭、食品安全、展店飽和與消費景氣波動，將限制獲利槓桿。以上2027至2028內容屬根據公司公開策略與產業趨勢之推估，非公司財測。
Supply Chain
Upstream
- 食品、飲料、菸酒、日用品、藥妝與寵物用品供應商 三商家購為零售通路，主要從上游品牌商、代理商、進口商及製造商採購商品；2024永續報告揭露公司與數百家供應商合作，並以供應商行為準則、誠信聲明、食品安全與永續評鑑管理供應鏈。公開資料未完整揭露重大供應商名單。
- 統一企業 1216 台股上市食品飲料與流通集團，屬台灣超市／超商通路常見上游民生食品飲料品牌商；未找到三商家購重大供應商比例之公開確認，列為產業供應鏈關聯。
- 味全 1201 台股上市食品飲料公司，產品屬超市通路常見品類；未找到三商家購重大供應商比例之公開確認，列為產業供應鏈關聯。
- 黑松 1234 台股上市飲料公司，產品屬社區超市與便利零售常見品類；未找到三商家購重大供應商比例之公開確認，列為產業供應鏈關聯。
- 南僑 1702 台股上市食品與清潔用品相關公司，產品與零售通路品類相符；未找到三商家購重大供應商比例之公開確認，列為產業供應鏈關聯。
- 台灣菸酒股份有限公司 未上市國營事業，菸酒飲品為三商家購販售品類之一；未找到三商家購重大供應商比例之公開確認，列為產業供應鏈關聯。
Downstream
- 社區家庭與一般消費者 主要終端客戶，透過美廉社、心樸市集、Tomod's、寵物好事、OK mart等門市及線上通路購買食品、飲品、日用品、藥妝與寵物用品。
- 加盟主 三商家購持續提高美廉社加盟比重，加盟主為門市營運合作方與下游通路夥伴；截至2025年底加盟店約300家、占比約37%，公司目標進一步提升。
- 外送平台與線上消費者 公司曾完成兩大外送平台合作並發展Go美廉、Simple Mart App等O2O服務；外送平台多非台股掛牌或非台灣上市公司，未填stock_id。
- 企業辦公室與機構客戶 透過美廉便利架等微型商店模式服務辦公室、企業與機構場域，屬延伸通路與B2B2C應用。
Competitors
- 全聯福利中心 台灣大型超市與生鮮民生零售龍頭之一，未上市；與美廉社在社區補貨、日常食品與民生用品採買上高度競爭。
- 統一超商 2912 台股上市，7-ELEVEN為台灣便利商店龍頭，也透過統一集團布局家樂福等零售資產；在即時消費、會員、物流、鮮食與社區通路上競爭。
- 全家便利商店 5903 台股上櫃便利商店業者，與三商家購旗下美廉社及併入後OK mart在便利零售、會員、店數與加盟體系競爭。
- 萊爾富 台灣便利商店品牌，未上市；OK mart併入三商家購後，三商家購在二線便利商店與社區零售市場的競爭關係更直接。
- 家樂福台灣 大型量販與超市通路，台灣營運公司未單獨台股掛牌；與美廉社在民生食品、日用品與家庭採買競爭。
- 寶雅 5904 台股上市生活百貨與美妝保健通路；與三商家購的Tomod's、心樸市集及生活用品、藥妝保健品類部分重疊。
- 大潤發台灣 量販通路，未單獨台股掛牌；在家庭採買、食品與日用品價格競爭上為間接競爭者。
Sources（13）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.