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3066

李洲 Optoelectronics As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 李洲 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 27Quality 47Growth 90Momentum 41Chips 86

Is 李洲 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 14th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 4.3%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 97th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 96th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 8.0% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 84.0%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral +0.03
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
  • 摩根大通 holds 386 lots
  • sellers have 898 lots left, ~46 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +32% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 386 lots since the start (sold 11%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 871 lots, has sold 33%, 582 left, ~46 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.19pp, mid holders -1, retail +0.89pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -65 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
摩根大通國票-新莊新加坡商瑞銀中國信託-三重元大-成功美林
Distributing
凱基-台北凱基-站前台灣摩根士丹利元大-新竹元大-中壢永豐金-市政
Desks
own scale
華南永昌富邦-竹北富邦-台北新光
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 摩根大通 +386
    sold 11%· still adding
  • 國票-新莊 +279
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +262
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 中國信託-三重 +138
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-成功 +123
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美林 +114
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 凱基-台北 582 left
    sold 33%· ~46 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-站前 165 left
    sold 69%· paused recently
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 182 left
    sold 49%· paused recently
  • 元大-新竹 21 left
    sold 82%· paused recently
  • 元大-中壢 48 left
    sold 53%· ~32 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金-市政 53 left
    sold 45%· ~35 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 華南永昌 -382
    unclassified
  • 富邦-竹北 -327
    unclassified
  • 富邦-台北 -207
    unclassified
  • 新光 -185
    unclassified
Still selling 898 lots ~46 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +974 absorbed / -392 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 83.95%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

38 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 61.3%, Sample 31, Median +1.17%, Excess +9.83%, Beat mkt rate 58.1%；60-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 30, Median +4.94%, Excess +7.3%, Beat mkt rate 46.7%；120-day: Win 51.9%, Sample 27, Median +0.36%, Excess +9.9%, Beat mkt rate 37%

120 days after: historical avg +16.32%

20-day +11.28%
60-day +13.01%
120-day +16.32%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61.3%
66.7%
51.9%
Sample
31
30
27
Median
+1.17%
+4.94%
+0.36%
Excess
+9.83%
+7.3%
+9.9%
Beat mkt rate
58.1%
46.7%
37%

Over 27 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 16.32%, beat the market by 9.9 pts; win rate 51.9%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 268-6.3% -11.2% 35.8% -35.4%
20-40 37+5.1% +4.6% 64.9% -18.4%
40-60 108+1.9% +21.4% 56.5% -32.3%
60-80 35-29.2% -27.4% 0% -114.7%
80-100 You are here0Insufficient data

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 295.71, at the 96.1th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-21.7%
Win rate 5.8% Excess -32.3%
69d
+4.9%
Win rate 38.4% Excess -20.6%
73d
-28.3%
Win rate 13.1% Excess -24.1%
61d
60-day momentum down
-9%
Win rate 23.5% Excess -17.8%
200d
+16.5%
Win rate 55.8% Excess -13.8%
165d
Now
Insufficient data
(0d)

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

18 times historically; 60-day forward avg -2.04%, win rate 27.8%, beating the market by -5.61 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

12 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.13%, win rate 45.5%, beating the market by -5.43 pts on average.

What does 李洲 do? Company profile

光電業 上櫃

Overview

3066 對應證券為李洲，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股，非 ETF/ETN/權證等非營運證券。公司成立於 1974/05/24，前身為李洲企業股份有限公司，2001 年更名為李洲科技股份有限公司，2004/12/02 上櫃掛牌。總部位於新北市汐止區新台五路一段97號27樓，並有桃園龜山營運總部與中國廣東東莞生產製造中心。董事長為李明順，總經理由李明順代行；公司英文簡稱 TAIWAN OASIS，統一編號 04541794。資本額約新台幣 8.31 億元，已發行普通股 83,070,612 股，年報列示 2024 年底員工 127 人。主要持股方面，2025 年年報/董監持股資料顯示李明順持股約 20,164,228 股、約 24.27%，為主要自然人股東；其他董事與經理人持股比例顯著較低。

Business

公司主要從事發光二極體光電產品之設計、開發、製造與加工，並包含塑膠射出成型產品、塑膠模具之設計開發與加工。2024 年營收結構為：發光二極體光電產品 93.51%、磊晶 6.32%、其他 0.17%。公司產品包括 LED 指示燈、LED 顯示器、電子反射蓋、SMD LED、LED 顯示屏、LED 晶片及晶粒；官網另列半導體零組件產品如記憶卡、隨身碟、固態硬碟，並提供電子專業製造服務 EMS、SMT 製程、LED 照明模組 ODM 服務與半導體設計製造服務。主要應用包括電子看板、汽車煞車燈、工業與民生電子電器、電機產品、電腦週邊、家用電器、照明產品與塑膠零配件。銷售區域方面，2024 年內銷 107,789 千元、占 49.13%；外銷 111,586 千元、占 50.87%。2024 年主要供應商以代號 BBQ002 揭露，進貨 15,858 千元、占 17.68%；主要銷貨客戶以代號 BTD002 揭露，銷貨 33,234 千元、占 15.15%。年報註明供應商/客戶名稱因契約約定或非關係人可用代號揭露，因此無法確認實名。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 展望以「成熟 LED 封裝/顯示與照明模組廠的利基轉型」看待。成長動能包括：一、LED 高亮度、耐久、低耗電特色，持續受節能、工業照明、交通號誌、車用照明、電子看板、背光與特殊 UV 應用支撐；二、公司以 LED 上中下游垂直整合作為策略，從磊晶、晶粒到封裝縮短製程並穩定晶粒來源，搭配 PCB 板與反射蓋自製，提高交期與成本控制；三、年報列示短期計畫為建立完整光電產品線、開發大功率 LED 照明燈源、更新自動化設備以降低成本；長期計畫為開拓國際行銷據點、強化代理制度、與中上游策略聯盟及研發高亮度 LED 新產品、尋求國際大廠合作；四、2026 年 1-5 月累計營收 113,347 千元、年增 30.77%，5 月單月營收 23,283 千元、年增 83.95%，公司公告備註為訂單增加，顯示短期訂單有回升跡象。主要風險包括：成熟 LED 產業價格競爭激烈、中國大陸產能與低價競爭、專利侵權與高亮度 LED 關鍵技術掌握於國際大廠、研發人才及勞工招募不易、匯率與關稅/地緣政治造成外銷不確定性、主要客戶及供應商匿名化導致外部投資人難以評估集中度品質。另有媒體於 2025 年報導董事長涉及 2022 年營收不實/證交法案件並遭起訴，屬公司治理與財報信賴風險，後續司法結果仍需追蹤。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • BBQ002 2024 年報揭露之主要供應商代號，進貨 15,858 千元、占 17.68%；年報未揭露實名，無法確認是否台股掛牌公司。
  • 國內環氧樹脂供應商 年報說明公司長期與國內多家環氧樹脂供應商配合，為 LED 封裝主要原料來源之一；未揭露公司名稱。
  • 日本、台灣晶片（EPI）供應商 年報列示晶片 EPI 供應地區為日本、台灣且供應狀況良好；未揭露具體公司名稱。
  • 美國、台灣基板供應商 年報列示基板供應地區為美國、台灣且供應狀況良好；未揭露具體公司名稱。
  • 富采控股／晶電 3714 年報 LED 產業結構列晶電為上游磊晶/晶粒主要廠商；晶電已整併入富采控股，非年報揭露之直接供應商。
  • 光磊科技 2340 年報 LED 產業結構列為上游磊晶/晶粒主要廠商，非年報揭露之直接供應商。
  • 鼎元光電 2426 年報 LED 產業結構列為上游磊晶/晶粒主要廠商，非年報揭露之直接供應商。
Downstream
  • BTD002 2024 年報揭露之主要銷貨客戶代號，銷貨 33,234 千元、占 15.15%；年報未揭露實名，無法確認是否台股掛牌公司。
  • 日本 LED 相關產品大廠客戶 公司官網稱李洲為提供日本大廠 LED 相關產品的製造商，但未揭露客戶名稱，應視為未上市或未確認之客戶群描述。
  • 照明燈具與模組客戶 下游應用包含 LED 照明模組 ODM、工業照明、家用照明與商用照明；多為品牌商、系統整合商或終端製造商，未揭露具體客戶。
  • 電子看板、交通號誌、車用與電子電器應用客戶 年報列示 LED 顯示器、指示燈、車用煞車燈、電子電器、電腦週邊等為主要應用；未揭露具體客戶名稱。

Competitors

  • 億光電子 2393 年報列為 LED 顯示器、LED 指示燈及 LED 照明下游封裝同業。
  • 光寶科技 2301 年報列為整體 LED 產業下游封裝主要同業之一。
  • 佰鴻工業 3031 年報列為 LED 下游封裝同業。
  • 宏齊科技 6168 年報列為 LED 下游封裝同業。
  • 華興電子 6164 年報列為 LED 下游封裝同業。
  • 立碁電子 8111 年報列為 LED 下游封裝同業。
  • 光鼎電子 6226 年報 LED 產業結構列為下游封裝主要廠商；需注意公司營運與掛牌狀態應以櫃買/證交所最新資料為準。
  • 東貝光電 年報列為 LED 下游封裝同業；其上市櫃狀態。
  • 今台電子 年報列為 LED 下游封裝同業；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.